NCAA Tournament
South Regional Semifinals – FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Tip-off: Friday, 7:05 pm ET
Line: North Carolina -7.0, Total: 153.0

After merely surviving in their last game, the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels look to get back on track against the fourth seeded Butler Bulldogs in the Sweet 16.

“Survive and advance.” That’s just what North Carolina did, closing out their game Sunday against Arkansas with a 12-0 run to win 72-65. The Tar Heels failed to cover the spread for the second time in three games, dropping to 18-16 ATS. Next up is a Butler team who knocked off the 12-seed Middle Tennessee State, 74-65. It marked the Bulldogs’ third win ATS in its last five outings and upped their overall record to 19-12 ATS. For North Carolina to get their mojo back, they will have to shoot better from outside the arc than they did against the Razorbacks. The Heels were just 5-of-17 from three-point range and that is unlikely to match a Bulldogs squad that has been lighting it up lately from deep. Butler has shot 47.1% from long range in its first two tournament games. Despite their struggles against Arkansas, UNC is an offensive juggernaut. The ACC’s leading scoring team at 85.1 PPG, North Carolina also leads the conference in assists per game at 18.1. And whatever shots they don’t make, Carolina usually winds up corralling anyway. The Tar Heels are tops in the nation in rebound margin (13.1) and offensive rebounds per game (15.97). One area the Bulldogs will look to exploit is North Carolina’s somewhat porous defense. Teams shoot 34.1% from the 3-pt range against UNC, which ranks the Heels just 133rd in the nation. For the season Butler has shot treys at a so-so 36.9% clip but their hot streak in the past two contests should be an area of concern for the Heels. Despite having tremendous length and athleticism up front, North Carolina does not boast much rim protection, with 3.3 blocked shots per game. Butler is even worse in that area, blocking 2.9 shots per game. Another area of weakness for the Tar Heels is their free throw shooting. At 70.8%, the Tar Heels rank just 152nd in the nation in that category. Butler should have an edge at the charity stripe where they shoot 73.8%. The Bulldogs don’t beat themselves. Their turnover margin of 3.2 ranks them 21st in the nation. Here’s an interesting number: Butler is 20-4-2 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 contests against ACC squads. Regardless, Butler will have their hands full with a Carolina team that is as deep and talented as any team in the country and UNC is 20-7-2 in their last 29 neutral site games as a favorite.

The Tar Heels’ struggles against the Hogs Sunday started with their floor leader, junior PG Joel Berry II (14.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.7 APG). Berry was just 2-for-8 from three-point range and 2-of-13 overall. In the first two games of the tournament, Berry is shooting just 14% from the floor and only 21% from 3-point range. If he is not more efficient against the Bulldogs on Friday, the Heels will be very vulnerable to an upset. With Berry nursing a sore ankle, senior G Nate Britt (4.7 PPG, 2.3 APG) will be called upon to give Roy Williams solid bench production. Junior F Theo Pinson (5.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.7 APG) has also been off his game, combining for a very quiet five points in UNC’s first two tourney games. One guy who is rarely off his game is ACC Player of the Year Justin Jackson (18.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG). The 6’8” junior forward might be a matchup nightmare for the Bulldogs. F Isaiah Hicks (12.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is coming off a pedestrian nine-point game against Arkansas, but prior to that had reeled off four straight games in double digits. He was just 2-of-7 from the floor on Sunday but in those prior four games he shot a remarkable 70.2% FG. 6’10” senior F Kennedy Meeks (12.7 PPG, 9.1 RPG) is coming off a double-double. His 11 rebounds included seven offensive boards. Butler is not a great rebounding team, ranking 149th in the nation in rebounding margin, so they might struggle keeping Meeks and the Heels off the offensive glass.

Taking a look at Butler’s stats, they don’t jump off the page. They average 76.2 PPG, which pales in comparison to Carolina. To keep up with UNC and get a win (or a cover) will be a tall task. The Bulldogs have just two players who average in double-digit scoring and only two players who average more than 4.6 RPG. They are a scrappy, well-coached group. Leading the way for the Bulldogs is 6’7” junior F Kelan Martin (16.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG), who’s only had three games all year where he’s not scored in double digits. Andrew Chrabascz, a 6’7” senior forward (11.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.1 APG), has scored in double figures in both tourney games and has shot exactly 50% from the floor (a combined 10-for-20). Kamar Baldwin (10.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.5 APG) is a freshman but don’t expect this guard to play like one. If Butler is to have a chance down the stretch they will need to be red-hot from the outside and their defense will have to continue to be stout. In their last seven games Butler has held opponents to 66.1 PPG. One other positive trend: in neutral site games, Butler has averaged 72.5 PPG on 46.1% FG. They will need all that and more on Friday against a Tar Heels team who may have just gotten their one subpar tournament performance out of the way.