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#20 St. Mary's hosts undefeated #1 Gonzaga Sat.
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 2/10/2017  at  1:22:00 PM
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GONZAGA BULLDOGS (25-0)

ST MARYS-CA GAELS (22-2)

McKeon Pavilion – Moraga, CA
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:15 pm ET
Line: N/A

#1 Gonzaga puts its undefeated record on the line when the team faces #20 St. Mary’s in McKeon Pavilion on Saturday.

Coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs and Randy Bennett’s Gaels add another chapter to what has been one of the west coast’s hottest basketball rivalries over the past few seasons. The only sole consistent threat to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, St. Mary’s broke through last season by sweeping the regular season series from the Bulldogs. Gonzaga got its revenge in the WCC tournament with a 10-point win to earn the automatic berth into the 2016 NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs have won their last 30 regular season games (counting that 2016 WCC tournament run), their last regular season loss coming to this same St. Mary’s squad on Feb. 20, 2016. The Gaels’ only conference loss this season (and last loss since Dec. 8) was to, you guessed it – Gonzaga – on Jan. 14. St. Mary’s got pulverized in Spokane (79-56, Zags -5); revenge for last season’s upset. Other than the loss to the Bulldogs, St. Mary’s has won their last 16 games (7-7-1 ATS). The Gaels might have been caught looking ahead to Saturday’s huge game as they snoozed past Portland on Thursday night (51-41, Gaels -24). The 51 points scored and 30.6% FG were both season-lows for St. Mary’s. This will be the second time that St. Mary’s will be an underdog this season (both against Gonzaga) and the Gaels are an impressive 13-1 (4-6 ATS) at home this season. Gonzaga comes off another workmanlike dismissal of an inferior WCC foe, toppling Loyola Marymount (90-60, Zags -17.5) on the road Thursday night. Gonzaga is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games and 17-4-1 ATS on the season (including 5-1-1 ATS on the road). The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS with two day’s rest, having just played on Thursday evening. Gonzaga has covered against every WCC team this season except the same Portland Pilots team that frustrated St. Mary’s on Thursday night. Besides the season sweep in 2015-16, Gonzaga has dominated this historical matchup in recent seasons, going 8-2 (9-1 ATS) against St. Mary’s since 2013. The 23-point margin of victory for the Bulldogs in January was the biggest blowout this series has seen in its last seven games (Mar. ’14).

This may very well be the stiffest test that Coach Few’s Bulldogs face until the NCAA tournament. Steamrolling towards a potential undefeated season, the Bulldogs could use a step up in competition to ready themselves for a potential Final Four run. With a scoring offense and defense both ranked in the top 10 nationally, Gonzaga is as well-rounded a team as you’ll see in the country. The Bulldogs shoot a collective 51.3% FG (3rd in NCAA) and, more impressively, have held each of their last nine opponents under 40% FG (37.2% FG on the season, 2nd in NCAA). They have seven key rotation players and nobody scoring more than 16.0 points per game. Most of all, they have experience. Besides freshman C Zach Collins (10.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 66% FG), nobody in the Bulldogs rotation is younger than a redshirt sophomore. G Nigel Williams-Goss (15.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.7 APG, 50.9% FG) is a transfer from Washington who eschewed individual success to find a winning situation in Spokane. A backcourt of Williams-Goss and Markelle Fultz would’ve been a ton of fun to watch in Seattle, but the steady junior guard looks to have made the right call in his decision to take his talents to Spokane. Williams-Goss is coming off his third double-double of the season (19 points, 11 rebounds) Thursday night and dropped 19 points and six assists (against only one turnover) in the Bulldogs’ win over St. Mary’s in Spokane in January. Williams-Goss is one of four key Bulldogs shooting north of 60% FG in their last four games (the aforementioned Collins, Przemek Karnowski, and Johnathan Williams). Gonzaga was able to use its strength inside to shoot better than 70% inside the arc in their first win over the Gaels. Karnowski (12.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG), Collins and Williams (9.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) will be tasked with slowing down and frustrating St. Mary’s star F Jock Landale. Landale struggled against Gonzaga in January to the tune of only 10 points, while fouling out in 19 minutes. The Gaels love to patiently run through their half-court sets and frustrate their opponents with motion to free up either an open three or a mismatch in the paint with Landale.

The Gaels play at a methodical pace, but are incredibly efficient: At only 61.4 possessions per game, they’re last in the NCAA in that regard (a full possession slower than Virginia), but score 1.2 points per possession (6th in NCAA). St. Mary’s is in the top ten nationally in assists and assists-to-turnovers per game, as well as FG%. Due to their slow pace, the Gaels sport the nation’s second ranked scoring defense (55.9 PPG), but holding opponents to garish totals like 27 and 33 points (as St. Mary’s has this conference season) isn’t just smoke, mirrors, and slow pace alone. The Gaels are legitimately tough to score on (9th in NCAA in 3PT% allowed; 12th in defensive efficiency). Opponents almost never go to the line against the Gaels (just 12.1 FTA, 2nd in NCAA), as St. Mary’s commits the least amount of fouls per game in the country (14.3). Even though the team as a whole doesn’t foul, the Gaels can ill-afford to have their best player, the aforementioned Jock Landale (16.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 60% FG) in foul woes as he was against Gonzaga in their first meeting. The 6’11” Landale is usually the biggest player on the floor, but that just isn’t so when facing Gonzaga’s two 7-foot centers. Landale scored just 13 points in three meetings against Gonzaga last season. G Emmett Naar (10.1 PPG, 5.5 APG, 45.2 3PT) and F Calvin Hermanson (12.8 PPG, 43.5% 3PT) round out the Gaels’ stellar trio of juniors that have kept St. Mary’s in the top 25. Senior G Joe Rahon (8.8 PPG, 5.8 APG) teams with Naar to rank #1 and 2 in the WCC in assists per game, even though both members of the St. Mary’s backcourt are scoring less than they did a season ago. Naar and Rahon both put up double-figure scoring efforts in their three games against the Bulldogs last season (Naar averaged 18.0 PPG in the three games) but combined for just 12 points on 5-for-20 shooting in the January loss this season. Forwards Dane Pineau (6.4 PPG) and Evan Fitzner (4.8 PPG) have taken big steps back this season in production, but both will be needed to play pivotal roles combating Gonzaga’s size in the paint.


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