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#12 Duke hosts rival #8 UNC Thursday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 2/9/2017  at  10:00:00 AM
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NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (21-4)

DUKE BLUE DEVILS (18-5)

Cameron Indoor Stadium – Durham, NC
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 pm ET
Line: N/A

#8 North Carolina looks to keep their place atop the ACC secure when they travel to Durham and face arch-rival #12 Duke on Thursday.

The Tar Heels and Blue Devils will take to the hardwood again on Thursday night and renew college basketball’s most storied rivalry. North Carolina holds the edge, all time, with a record of 134-108 in this series. This will be the 77th time that both teams meet while ranked in the top 25 (Duke has a 39-37 record in these instances). Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski is 43-39 overall against his counterparts in Chapel Hill, while North Carolina Coach Roy Williams is 12-19 against Duke (including 1-3 while coach at Kansas). The Tar Heels come into Thursday’s battle as winners in nine of their last 10 games (5-5 ATS). They most recently knocked off #20 Notre Dame in Greensboro on Sunday (83-76, UNC -9), in a game pushed back a day due to a water main break on the Chapel Hill campus. North Carolina’s only loss in 2017 was a 77-62 loss (UNC -6) at the hands of Miami on the road (Jan. 28), as both of the Tar Heels’ conference losses have been away from home. North Carolina is 5-3 (2-6 ATS) on the road this season. Coach Krzyzewski returned to the Blue Devils bench for Duke’s 72-64 (Duke -16) win on Saturday over Pittsburgh in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Krzyzewski had been out for the previous seven games due to back surgery, in which interim head coach Jeff Capel directed Duke to a 4-3 record, including Duke’s only home loss of the season (NC State, 84-82). Duke is 11-1 (5-6 ATS) at home. The team is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games and only 9-13 ATS on the season. Recent history between North Carolina and Duke oddly enough shows the road team having more success, as the visitors have won the last three meetings. The last home win has been with the Blue Devils taking out the Tar Heels in Durham (92-90 in overtime) in Feb. 2015. Overall, the road team is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. The teams split the series last season, both times winning on each other’s home floor (and covering in the process). The two games were decided by a combined five points. While the total trends have been evenly split in this rivalry, the Over is 8-2 in Duke’s last 10 games this season. On the injury front, North Carolina F Theo Pinson (6.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG) has only played six games this season and missed the last four for the Tar Heels (ankle). Pinson is a “game time decision” for Thursday after practicing Tuesday and Wednesday.

Never was departed All-American Brice Johnson’s presence more felt than against the rival Blue Devils last season, as Johnson averaged 23.5 PPG and 20.0 RPG in two monster games against Duke. There are plenty of capable weapons for Coach Williams, but none of them are used to anything other than supporting roles in this storied rivalry. Justin Jackson (18.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and Joel Berry II (14.9 PPG, 4.0 APG), both juniors, are the most likely candidates to step up if the Tar Heels are to win their second straight game on Duke’s home floor. Berry II and Jackson combined to go just 7-for-27 from the field (3-for-14 3PT) in last year’s four point road victory. Senior F Kennedy Meeks (12.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG) has a better history in hostile territory, posting a 12-point, 14-rebound double-double last season at Duke. Meeks also recorded 18 points and seven rebounds as a sophomore in a loss at Duke. Meeks and Berry II are key barometers to the Tar Heels success, averaging just 6.0 PPG and 5.0 PPG, respectively, in North Carolina’s two conference losses this season. Berry II is 3-for-21 FG in those two losses, which were both on the road (at Miami, at Georgia Tech). Jackson, however, has been a source of consistency in his breakout season, averaging 20.7 PPG over his last nine contests (42.5% 3PT). Look for senior F Isaiah Hicks (12.8 PPG, 61% FG) to look to make his mark in the last game he plays on his rival’s home floor. Hicks has averaged 16.0 PPG over his last two games and adds to the ridiculous amount of talent that Coach Roy Williams has on his frontline. The Tar Heels have a decided advantage over most teams they’ll play in the paint (44.4 RPG, 1st in NCAA) and they’ll surely be looking to exploit their 7.0 RPG edge over Duke with Meeks, Hicks, Jackson and company.

Duke has had quite the season, from Coach Krzyzewski’s surgery to oft-maligned junior G Grayson Allen’s (15.8 PPG, 4.0 APG) antics. The Blue Devils are still 12th in the country and have as talented a roster as there is in America. Duke’s offense (82.5 PPG) is solid as always (17th in NCAA), but their defense has been making noise as well (67.9 PPG, 62nd in NCAA). Duke holds opponents to just 30.1% 3PT (10th in NCAA), but will have their hands full against a North Carolina team that loves to eat opponents alive on the offensive glass and in the paint. Duke isn’t an elite rebounding team (37.7 RPG, 67th in NCAA) but does do an admirable job limiting rebounding opportunities (31.4 RPG allowed, 22nd in NCAA). Senior F Amile Jefferson (12.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) will be a key player in this matchup, tasked with keeping North Carolina’s army of powerful and talented forwards off the glass. Jefferson has struggled mightily since returning from a two-game absence in early January, only averaging 7.0 PPG and 6.6 RPG in his past five contests. The senior did have a bounce-back game with his coach on the bench, recording 15 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in Saturday’s win over Pittsburgh. The aforementioned Allen led the way against the Tar Heels last season, averaging 25.0 PPG in Duke’s split, including 29 points on 11-for-28 FG the last time these teams played in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Allen will have help this season in the form of leading scorer, G Luke Kennard (19.8 PPG, 45.8% 3PT). Kennard, one of the biggest surprise performers in the country this season, excelled off the bench against the Tar Heels last year, averaging 17.5 PPG in two games, (including a 20-point performance at home). The sophomore southpaw is third in the ACC in scoring and fourth in 3PT % this season. The role of “dynamic freshman forward” this season, last occupied by Brandon Ingram, will be filled this season for Duke by Jayson Tatum (15.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG). Tatum can put his imprint on the game from the perimeter or the paint.


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