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Mavs, Thunder meet in Oklahoma City Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/26/2017  at  11:50:00 AM
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DALLAS MAVERICKS (16-29)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (27-19)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -8.0, Total: 199.5

Both the Mavericks and the Thunder will be looking for their third straight wins when the teams meet in Oklahoma City on Thursday.

The Mavericks are coming off of a 103-95 victory over the Knicks on Thursday night. Dallas was a 2.5-point home favorite in that one, and the team has now won five of its past seven games and covered in six of those contests. The Mavericks are getting it done on the defensive end, where they have forced 15 or more turnovers in five of their past eight games. They’ll look to do more of the same against a Thunder team that has turned the ball over 15 or more times in six of its past seven contests. Oklahoma City has, however, won-and-covered in two straight. The Thunder were in New Orleans on Wednesday night and beat the Pelicans 114-105 as 1.5-point favorites. They outrebounded New Orleans 63-56, and have now outrebounded each of their past two opponents. That might not seem like a big deal, but Oklahoma City had been outrebounded in each of its previous two losses and it’s clear the Thunder need to win the battle on the glass. The Mavericks and Thunder have not yet met this season, so perhaps last year’s postseason will still be fresh on the minds of most of these players. Oklahoma City won that series in five games (3-2 ATS), but that was with Kevin Durant on the roster and it’s not worth putting much weight into that series. One trend that sticks out when looking at this game is that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - that have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season (Oklahoma City) - are 112-62 ATS after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games over the past five seasons. PG Deron Williams (Toe) was injured against the Knicks last game, and he is listed as questionable for this one. PF Dirk Nowitzki (Rest) and SG Wes Matthews (Hip) are also on the injury report, as both guys are expected to miss this game.

If the Mavericks are going to beat the Thunder on Thursday then SF Harrison Barnes (20.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is going to need to play a very good game for Dallas. Barnes was excellent against the Knicks on Wednesday, finishing with 23 points, five rebounds and two steals in 37 minutes of action. He was an efficient 8-for-15 from the floor in that one, but he’ll need to take even more shots than that on Thursday. With Nowitzki likely out, Barnes is going to be the only player in this Dallas lineup that is truly feared. He must justify that by being aggressive. One place where you know Barnes will feast is in the mid-range. Barnes scores 30.6% of his points on mid-range jumpers (8th in NBA) and he’ll likely sit in that area often against Oklahoma City. Another guy to keep an eye on for Dallas is SG Seth Curry (10.8 PPG, 1.2 SPG). Curry has been lighting it up lately, shooting 57.1% from the floor and 52.2% from three over the past five games. While Curry might have a reputation for being a shooter (41.9% 3PT this season), his ability to get to the rim is extremely underrated. In fact, Curry is third in the league in field goal percentage on drives (59.2%), as his shooting often opens up lanes to the rim. Look for him to have a big role on Thursday, as the Mavericks need somebody besides Barnes to come through offensively.

The Thunder have won two straight games and PG Russell Westbrook (30.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 10.4 APG, 1.6 SPG) has continued to play the best basketball of his career. Westbrook has recorded a triple-double in three consecutive games, and he has been lights out from three recently as well. Over the past five games, Westbrook is shooting 41.2% from the outside. That is one part of his game that needs to continue to improve, but he’ll continue to be dangerous as long as he is hot from there. Joining him in the backcourt is SG Victor Oladipo (16.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG), who is another tough cover for opposing guards. Oladipo is a freak athlete that has the speed and strength to get to the rim whenever he pleases. He also happens to be shooting a career best 37.8% from the outside, and he is doing so on 5.6 attempts per game (also a career high). Oladipo will need to play well on both ends of the floor in this one, as he’ll be matched up with the quickly improving Curry. On the inside, both Cs Steven Adams (12.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG) and Enes Kanter (14.6 PPPG, 6.8 RPG) should be able to dominate Dallas. The Mavericks are pretty weak at the center spot, and that is a strength of this Oklahoma City team. Adams will do all of the dirty work to help his team win, and Kanter will continue to dominate as a scorer off the bench. Over the past five games, Kanter is averaging 18.8 PPG and 8.4 RPG on 54.4% shooting. It’s unlikely that the Mavericks will be able to slow him down.


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