KFC Yum! Center – Louisville, KY
Tip-off: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: California -11.5

ACC heavyweights collide as #14 Louisville hosts #7 Duke on Saturday at noon.

Coach Rick Pitino’s Cardinals will be looking for two home wins in a row over the Blue Devils in two seasons, as they take on a reeling and battered Blue Devils team without Coach Krzyzewski (back surgery) and senior F Amile Jefferson (foot). Assistant Coach Jeff Capel is at the helm while Krzyzewski misses the next month of games and is 1-1 (0-2) ATS thus far, with an 11-point home win over Boston College a week ago (93-82, Duke -26) and a road loss at Florida State (88-72, Duke +1.5). Jefferson only played 13 minutes in the win over Boston College before being injured and sat out the loss at Florida State. Duke has lost both ACC conference road games they’ve played this season (89-75 at Virginia Tech, Duke -4.5) and is only 1-6 ATS in their last seven. Louisville is an impressive 10-5 ATS this season and 9-1 (7-2 ATS) at home, their only home defeat coming at the hands of Virginia (61-53, LOU -3) on Dec. 28. The Cardinals are 2-3 ATS over their last five contests including a cover at Georgia Tech last Saturday (65-50, LOU -13) and, most recently, an 85-80 (LOU -11) win over Pittsburgh at the KFC Yum! Center on Wednesday. Duke is 3-2 (3-1-1 ATS) in their last five meetings with Louisville, including the teams splitting home games last season. Duke owns the only road victory of those five games, coming in Jan. 2015. In total trends, the Under has been hit in three straight games between the Cardinals and Blue Devils.

The Blue Devils will look to avoid a losing streak for the first game this season, but road games don’t get much tougher than at the KFC Yum! Center. Duke’s high-powered offense can’t be counted out of any game, as even without the injured Amile Jefferson (13.6 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) Duke has a plethora of offensive weapons that will likely be future NBA draft picks. Where Jefferson’s absence really stings is on defense, as Duke allowed consecutive season-highs of 82 points against Boston College and 88 points at Florida State. Jefferson is far-and-away Duke’s most reliable defender, with the ability to protect the rim, clean the glass, and switch on smaller forwards or centers. The switch from the fifth-year senior in Jefferson to freshman Harry Giles (5.3 PPG), or sophomore Chase Jeter (2.7 PPG) is a massive drop off in experience and familiarity with the system, if not raw talent. Giles is projected as a possible one-and-done lottery pick, but is still not up to full health from offseason knee surgery. Jeter was wholly ineffective in 25 minutes against Florida State (1 point, 6 rebounds). The Blue Devils will likely go small against Louisville and hope that the Cardinals lack of consistent offense can’t capitalize on the shortcomings defensively that Duke will likely deal with. Louisville has a vaunted defense, but has let up some big offensive performances (most recently 43 points to Pittsburgh’s Jamel Artis on Wednesday). Duke has plenty of perimeter options capable of catching fire, led by Luke Kennard (20.4 PPG, 44.7% 3PT), Grayson Allen (15.2 PPG, 4.3 APG), Frank Jackson (11.6 PPG), and Jayson Tatum (17.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.7 BPG). Tatum may very well turn out to be the key player in this game for Duke, as he’ll likely spend stretches as the biggest Blue Devil on the floor (at 6’8”, 200 pounds). His length on defense and playmaking ability on offense (20.6 PPG over his last three) have proven that even with all the veterans on Duke, Tatum is the focal point of this team. Duke needs Greyson Allen to be better, plain and simple. Allen will face another very hostile environment and, in a down season across the board (on and off the court), this can be a turnaround point for the maligned junior’s season. Allen was terrific in two games against Louisville last season averaging 24 PPG (13-for-24 FG).

Louisville boasts an elite defense, ranking in the top 15 nationally in scoring defense, field goal and three-point defense, blocks per game, rebounds per game, opponent’s assists per game and defensive efficiency (points per possession). The Cardinals did get a scare against Pittsburgh on Wednesday after jumping out to a huge lead, only to allow the Panthers to come back from 19 down at halftime to make it a game in the final minutes thanks to 32 second-half points from Jamel Artis of Pittsburgh (43 overall). It was the second time this season that the stout Cardinals defense had allowed a 40+ point performance (DeWayne Russell, Grand Canyon) and Duke has multiple options more-than-capable enough of big scoring nights. If Louisville can score like they did for most of the night against Pittsburgh (47.5% FG, 42.9% 3PT), they can beat anyone in the country, however, as consistent offense has been the biggest issue for Coach Pitino this season. Louisville has averaged only 62.0 PPG in their three losses and are 251st in the country in scoring efficiency (1.03 points per possession). Coach Pitino teams have historically relied on their defensive pressure to turn into offense via turnovers and steals, but Duke takes good care of the ball (11.6 TO, 40th in NCAA) which will put more pressure on Louisville to score in the half court. As mentioned earlier, Louisville won’t have to contend with Amile Jefferson in the paint which bodes well for the likes of Donovan Mitchell (13.5 PPG, 2.2 SPG) and Deng Adel (10.6 PPG). Mitchell has emerged as a go-to guy for Pitino in conference play (20.0 PPG over his last four). Another breakthrough sophomore has been 6”10” Ray Spalding (6.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG), who has crept into the starting lineup the past four games and is averaging 10.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG over his last three. Spalding played a season-high 29 minutes against Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Junior G Quinn Snider (12.0 PPG, 3.9 APG, 1.4 TO) is an always-underrated point guard for Louisville, and can be relied upon to make big shots and post double-digit scoring efforts. Snider is 8-for-14 from three over his last three contests and led Louisville with 22 points and five assists in Wednesday’s win.