Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New England -9.5, Total: 44.5

New England and Miami will both be playing for improved playoff seeding when they meet on Sunday.

The Patriots took care of business—and then some—on Christmas Eve, destroying the Jets at home 41-3 (NE -17). New England forced four turnovers and committed none, and held the Jets to only 239 yards of total offense. It was the Patriots’ sixth straight win, and it improved their record to 13-2 on the year (12-3 ATS, best in the NFL by two games). They have already clinched the AFC East and a first-round bye in the playoffs; with a win or a tie in Week 17, or an Oakland loss or a tie, they will secure the conference’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage leading up to the Super Bowl. Their Week 17 opponent is the Miami Dolphins, who have won three straight after beating Buffalo 34-31 in overtime in the unfriendly confines of New Era Field (MIA +4.5). They came away with the victory despite surrendering a staggering 589 yards of offense and 30 first downs to the Bills. The Dolphins are now 10-5 this season and 8-5-2 against the spread. They have clinched at least the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs, and they can take the No. 5 spot with a win over the Patriots and a Kansas City loss. Over the last 10 seasons, favorites outscoring opponents by at least 10 points per game that have allowed no more than 14 points in two straight games (NE) are 12-37 ATS. However, over the last five seasons, road teams that gained 7.0 or more yards per passing attempt in their previous game (NE) are 37-15 ATS in games where both teams are averaging at least 7.3 yards per passing attempt on the season. While the Patriots beat the Dolphins 31-24 (NE -6) without starting QB Tom Brady (and largely without backup Jimmy Garoppolo), they have lost three straight games in Miami dating back to 2013. LB Jelani Jenkins, LB Spencer Paysinger and CB Byron Maxwell are all questionable for the Fins, while LB Dont’a Hightower and perpetual special teams Pro Bowler Matthew Slater is questionable for the Patriots.

At the age of 39, Patriots QB Tom Brady (66.7 CMP%, 3,278 yards, 25 TDs, 2 INTs) is arguably having his best season since his record-setting 2007 campaign. He is second in the league in passer rating (110.7), second in yards per attempt (8.22) and seventh in completion percentage. He easily has the league’s best touchdown-to-interception ratio and his touchdown percentage of 6.3% is third among qualified players. He has thrown at least three touchdowns six times in eleven games, including his 17-of-27, 217-yard dismantling of the Jets last week. That represented a bounce back from his quietest outing of the year, when he completed 16 of 32 passes for 188 yards in a 16-3 win at Denver. It was his only sub-200 yard game this season and one of only two zero-touchdown performances, but he avoided turning the ball over and successfully controlled the tempo against a dominant Broncos defense. Recently, he’s done it all without his fellow future Hall-of-Famer, TE Rob Gronkowski (25 catches, 540 yards, 3 TDs in limited action). Gronk’s season-ending injury leaves Brady without a dominant pass-catcher, but he still has a unique and diverse set of playmakers at his disposal this season. At wideout, Julian Edelman (90 catches, 955 yards, 2 TDs) remains his No. 1 option. While he has struggled to find the end zone, Edelman is seventh in the NFL in receptions and appears primed to play a full 16-game season for only the second time in his career. TE Martellus Bennett (52 catches, 668 yards, 6 TDs) played a great second fiddle to Gronkowski, but is still an above-average No. 1 tight end in his absence. WR Chris Hogan (34 catches, 653 yards, 4 TDs) was a typical brilliant Patriots find in free agency, while fourth-round draft pick WR Malcolm Mitchell (32 catches, 401 yards, 4 TDs) has stepped up in recent weeks. The Pats are arguably the NFL’s strongest team at the running back position, with James White (56 catches, 530 yards, 4 TDs) and Dion Lewis (15 catches, 90 yards in limited action) catching passes and the bruising LeGarrette Blount (285 carries, 1,110 yards, 17 TDs) leading the league in rushing touchdowns. On defense, New England is eighth in the league with 329.5 yards allowed per game and first with 15.7 points allowed per game. Hightower and S Devin McCourty were chosen to start in the Pro Bowl, and CB Malcolm Butler is also one of the league’s best at his position.

When QB Ryan Tannehill (67.1 CMP%, 2,995 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs) went down with a leg injury against the Cardinals in Week 14 and was lost indefinitely, many Dolphins fans believed their chances of making the playoffs had gone down the drain. Tannehill doesn’t get the credit of being a top-tier quarterback, and he isn’t one, but his 7.7 yards per attempt currently rank seventh in the league and his passer rating of 93.5 is 12th. His TD-INT ratio is discouraging, but losing even a below-average starting quarterback can easily tank a team’s postseason hopes. Tannehill had been playing his best football late in the year, too; he was 15 of 20 for 195 yards, three touchdowns and a pick before leaving the Arizona game. While Tannehill could potentially return in the playoffs, his backup, QB Matt Moore (58.5 CMP%, 516 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs), has been beyond a pleasant surprise. While his sample size is far too small to qualify him as a league leader, he would lead the league with both his 9.74 yards per attempt and his absurd touchdown percentage of 11.3. He has one of the league’s best possession wideouts in the Edelman-like Jarvis Landry (85 catches, 1,060 yards, 3 TDs). He has catches of 65-plus yards in two of his last three games, showing he is more than just a short-yardage receiver. WRs DeVante Parker (51 catches, 699 yards, 4 TDs) and Kenny Stills (35 catches, 685 yards, 8 TDs) are solid as No. 2 and No. 3 receivers, respectively. Stills has a touchdown in three straight games and in six of his last nine. Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Fins, the focal point of the offense will be RB Jay Ajayi (244 carries, 1,213 yards, 8 TDs), who went from not traveling with the team at the start of the year to having three 200-yard games. The most recent of those was last week against the Jets (32 carries for 206 yards and a touchdown), which followed a string of four games in which he didn’t rush for more than 61 yards. Whether Miami gets the 200-yard Ajayi or the 45-yard version could determine their fate against New England and whoever they play in the playoffs. Defensively, the Dolphins are third-from-last in the league with 381.7 yards allowed per game but 14th with 23.0 points allowed per game. DE Cameron Wake is a Comeback Player of the Year Candidate with 11.5 sacks. DT Ndamukong Suh joins him on this year’s Pro Bowl roster.