OUTBACK BOWL - Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Monday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida -3.0, Total: 40.5

Two storied teams clash when #21 Iowa takes on #20 Florida in the Outback Bowl.

The Hawkeyes finished the season extremely strong, as they won (and covered) in their last three regular season games. One of those victories came over Michigan, and another was a 40-10 beatdown on Nebraska. Iowa held its last three opponents to under 250 yards of total offense, and the team will be hoping to really stifle Florida in this one. It’s not crazy to imagine them doing so, as the Gators scored 20 or fewer points in each of their last five regular season games. Florida lost three of those five games, and will be hoping to find a way to end the season on a positive note. These teams have a history of meeting in bowl games, as they faced one another in both 2004 and 2006. Each team won-and-covered in one of those games. One trend that favors Iowa when looking at this game is the fact that the team is 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after a home victory over the past two seasons. Florida, meanwhile, is 30-14 ATS when playing away from home after a game where it committed three or more turnovers since 1992.

If Iowa is going to find a way to beat Florida then the team is going to need to get its running game established. That means that this offensive line is going to need to work as hard as it has all season, as Florida has one of the best rushing defenses in the nation. Things might get tough for RBs LeShun Daniels Jr. (1013 yards, 10 TD) and Akrum Wadley (966 yards, 10 TD), but both will need to fight for extra yards in order to help out their quarterback in this one. If QB C.J. Beathard (1,874 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT) is stuck facing too many third-and-long situations then Florida is going to eat him alive. The Hawkeyes need to get creative on first and second, so that they can give themselves some short situations on third. That is their only chance of moving the ball against an elite Florida defense like this one. Defensively, the Gators are actually quite similar to the Hawkeyes. They are not going to be able to do much in the passing game, so Iowa can really give Florida trouble by stopping the run.

Florida has had trouble putting up points this season, but one guy that is capable of changing this game is WR Antonio Callaway (47 rec, 666 yards, 3 TD). Callaway is incredible in the open field, but QB Austin Appleby (1,225 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT) is going to need to do his best to get it to him. He was able to do so early in the SEC Championship against Alabama, but that changed quickly. Appleby threw for three interceptions in that game, and he’ll need to be more careful with the ball in this one. As a transfer from Purdue, Appleby will at least have some experience against Hawkeyes team. He threw for 259 yards with a touchdown and no picks against them last year, and he has more talent around him this time around. RB Jordan Scarlett (795 yards, 6 TD) is, however, the focal point of this offense. He will need to run the ball well in this game or it’ll be very tough for this offense to get going. He did rush for at least 90 yards in four different games this season, so he should be able to find some holes here. The strength of this team is, however, the defense. Florida had the sixth best total defense in the nation this year. That doesn’t bode well for an Iowa team that struggles to score.