Matthew Knight Arena – Eugene, OR
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00pm ET
Line: N/A

The Pac 12 kicks off conference play Wednesday night with a top 25 battle between #2 UCLA and #24 Oregon.

Oregon will hope to have the services of star F Chris Boucher (14.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.2 BPG) when they host the Bruins. Boucher has missed the Ducks past two games with an ankle injury, but is out of a walking boot and with two weeks of rest is aiming to return to the starting lineup. The Ducks have stretched their winning streak to nine games (3-5 ATS in that span), winning their last two without Boucher over UNLV and Fresno State, respectively, before breaking for the holiday. Oregon is perfect at home this season (8-0, 2-4 ATS), but is only 1-3 ATS in their last four games in Eugene. UCLA (10-3 ATS), like Oregon, hasn’t played in some time. The Bruins last played on Dec. 21, a lackadaisical effort at home against Western Michigan (82-68, UCLA -30). UCLA shined in their one true road effort this season, a 97-92 win at Kentucky (+10.5) on Dec. 3 that vaulted Coach Steve Alford’s crew up the national polls. Besides being undefeated, UCLA is 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games. Historically, Oregon has dominated this matchup as of late. The Ducks are 8-3 overall spanning back to March 2011, the winner in those past 11 matchups also covering. Five out of the last six contests between the Ducks and Bruins have seen the total go Under. Oregon has also been stellar at home against UCLA recently, handily winning the last two matchups by double-figures (82-64, Ore -2.5, Jan. 2015; 86-72, Ore -6.5, Jan. 2016). UCLA’s last win over the Ducks came at home in Feb. 2015, with their last road win at Oregon coming in Jan. 2014.

UCLA will be in for a rude awakening Wednesday night if their poor play in cruising past Western Michigan before the holidays continues in Eugene. 30 point favorites over their competition the last time out on the court, UCLA entered their last contest leading the nation in 3PT% (43.9) but shot only 6-of-22 from deep. That said, UCLA still prevailed even with star freshman G Lonzo Ball (13.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 8.3 APG) having his worst game of the season (7 points, 4 assists). The team still combined for 22 assists, something they do better than anyone else in the country, and amassed nine blocks on defense. If anything, UCLA’s weaknesses on display against an inferior opponent outlined why they’re going to be so tough to knock off. Ball has had a remarkable year. In a season boasting a bumper-crop of freshman talent, Ball has been the story, leading the blue-blooded Bruins back from the brink of irrelevance and into the headlines. His classmate, F T.J. Leaf (17.5 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 65.5% FG) has gotten less press but is almost equally as responsible. Much better than advertised, Leaf shows a multitude of ways to score in the post with touch and athleticism and has a non-stop motor. Combine those two with the core of G Isaac Hamilton (16.8 PPG, 50% FG), G Bryce Alford (16.4 PPG, 46% FG), F Thomas Welsh (11.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG) and G Aaron Holiday (14.5 PPG, 4.5 APG) and you have the best top-six in America. Alford, Hamilton and Holiday are all shooting career-highs from the field, and that’s in no small part attributed to Ball’s exquisite playmaking. Welsh will be returning from a knee injury that has kept him out since Dec. 3, and will be a welcome addition back into the rotation for Coach Alford. If Welsh is eased back in, freshman F Ike Anigbogu provides an intimidating defensive presence down low to share minutes (2.1 BPG). While UCLA’s offensive firepower can’t be questioned (2nd NCAA), Oregon does boast the best rim protection in the country. The Bruins can ill-afford to misfire from deep as they did against Western Michigan, as scoring over Boucher, Jordan Bell and company is a tough task for any team.

While Oregon boasts impressive athleticism and skill on both ends, Coach Altman will probably want to control tempo and keep the Bruins from getting out in the open court where their 23.5 assists per game (1st NCAA) end in dunks and layups. Yes, UCLA can shoot it, but keeping the Bruins relegated to hoisting jump shots in a half-court set will be Oregon’s best recipe for success. The Ducks can lean on (hopefully) a healthy Boucher – who had a home double-double last season against the Bruins -- and F Jordan Bell (10.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.5 BPG) to control the lane and put the ball in F Dillon Brooks’ capable hands on offense. A preseason All-American candidate, Brooks has taken it easy with offseason surgery slowing his production. Averaging 12.2 points per game, Brooks should now be healthy, well-rested, and ready to ramp up production closer to the 16.7 PPG he averaged last season where he scored 40 points over two games against the Bruins. The 6’7” junior scored a season-high 20 points on Dec. 17th against Fresno State. Guards Tyler Dorsey (13.5 PPG) and Dylan Ennis (10.4 PPG) round out the five double-figure scorers that the Ducks boast. Dorsey led the Ducks with 20 points in a road win against the Bruins last March. UCLA’s defense, while also elite protecting the rim, is leaky on the perimeter. The Bruins also have issues on the glass, allowing 10.8 offensive boards per game (304th NCAA). Unfortunately Oregon’s forte isn’t from downtown, as at 31% 3PT (295th NCAA) they won’t likely be able to exploit that Bruins weakness and, if they fall behind, seem less likely to be able to make up the difference unless they can create turnovers against a Bruin team that usually boasts 3-4 capable ball handlers on the floor at the same time.