FedEx Forum – Memphis, TN
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00p.m. ET
Line: N/A

Memphis opens AAC conference play on Tuesday night attempting to break a four-game skid spanning two seasons against SMU.

SMU has been the favorite and the victor in the last four meetings between the Tigers and Mustangs, along with successfully covering in each of those games. The Tigers’ last win in this matchup was their regular season finale in the inaugural season of the American Athletic Conference on March 8th, 2014. Both Memphis and SMU are under new direction this season, as the venerable Tubby Smith is now at the helm in Memphis while Tim Jankovich took the departed Larry Brown’s post this summer at SMU. Jankovich’s Mustangs enter Tuesday night’s game winners of six straight, all at home. SMU is 0-2 (0-2) on the road this season. Highlighting their road losses earlier in the year were the Mustangs letting up a season-high 78 points at USC (78-73, SMU +3.5). SMU closed out their winning streak with wins on back-to-back nights against Stanford (72-49, SMU -8) and Albany (71-53) and will have had six days off before Tuesday. Memphis is 7-1 (1-2 ATS) at home this season, their only home defeat coming on Dec. 13 to Monmouth (82-79, Mem -3). The Tigers followed up the home disappointment by gutting out a 99-94 road win against Oklahoma four nights later (Mem +9.5). Most recently, Memphis clobbered Incarnate Word (95-71) at home on Dec. 21. In TOTAL trends, this game has been UNDER in seven of the last nine matchups between the Tigers and Mustangs, which includes each of the last three meetings.

While it remains to be seen if Memphis can be an elite offensive team when facing AAC rivals in conference play, SMU’s sturdy defense will be the staunchest test for a Tiger team averaging 84.6 PPG (21st NCAA). Memphis is led by the brothers Lawson (Dedric and KJ) as both second-year players have improved across the board for the Tigers. Dedric Lawson (21.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG) is one of the biggest matchup nightmares in college basketball. A multi-faceted 6’9” weapon that Memphis lists as a guard, not only does Dedric Lawson average a double-double but he’s second on the team in assists (3.8) and 20th in the nation in blocks (2.6). Most impressive, Dedric Lawson has upped his FG% from 40% to 51% while also shooting more this season. K.J. Lawson (15 PPG, 8.9 RPG), a redshirt freshman who only played 10 games last season due to injury, in enjoying a breakout season as Robin to Dedric’s Batman. Sparsely used before getting injured last season (19.7 MPG), K.J. Lawson has flourished with 30+ minutes per game under Coach Smith. K.J. has three double-doubles in his last four games. Along with the Lawson’s, Memphis boasts two other players contributing 2+ assists per game (Markel Crawford – 13.6 PPG, 2.3 APG; Jeremiah Martin – 9.9 PPG, 5.6 APG) which explains the Tigers ranking 3rd in the nation in that category (19.4 APG). Crawford has hit double-figures in every game but one this season, and Martin is arguably an even more improved player than K.J. Lawson, going from the end of the bench as a freshman to leading the team in minutes as a sophomore. While Memphis is an improved offensive team, they could make even more of a jump if they could convert more efficiently from the charity stripe (65.9% FT, 265th NCAA), considering how often they find themselves there (24.9 FTA, 39th NCAA). The Tigers are great converting in the paint, shooting 55.7% from two (25th NCAA), but again will run up against an SMU defense that hasn’t allowed more than 78 points in a game all season. Memphis is also a stellar rebounding unit (41 RPG, 22nd NCAA) running up against an SMU team that is 5th in the nation in rebounds allowed (28.6 per game). If Memphis can assert their style and will against an SMU team that usually dictates pace and physicality, then the Tigers will have a chance to get in the win column against the Mustangs for the first time since 2014.

SMU has the Tigers’ number recently and has seamlessly kept up their relentless defense and grind-it-out style in the transition from Larry Brown to Tim Jankovich. SMU’s 13th overall scoring defense (59.8 PPG) has turned it up even more in their current six-game winning streak. No opponent has scored more than 60 points (two under 50) or shot better than 43% FG in this current run. Not to take away from SMU’s overall defensive numbers but this is partially due to the Tigers playing the sixth slowest pace in all of Division 1 (66 possessions per game). Memphis gets almost 10 more possessions per game, so keep an eye on which team is imposing their will on the style of the game as to who eventually comes out on top. Conversely, considering that snail’s pace, SMU’s offensive effectiveness can’t be solely judged on scoring (72.6 PPG, 117th NCAA). The Mustangs score 1.1 points per possession (47th NCAA) and should be able to expose a less-than-stellar Memphis defense (203rd NCAA). SMU boasts four double-figure scorers led by Duke transfer F Semi Ojeleye (18.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 45% 3PT). A talented prep player who barely played at Duke, Ojeleye has found his niche in Dallas as he came right out of the gate with 26 in SMU’s season opener and is coming off a career-high 28 points in SMU’s recent win over Albany. Ojeleye is 12-for-19 3PT over his last three contests. Ojeleye versus the Lawson brothers may be the highlight of this game, but SMU boasts impressive offensive depth with four more Mustangs averaging over 26 minutes and nine points per game. G Shake Milton (11.9 PPG, 4.0 APG) is a 6’6” sophomore that intrigues NBA scouts due to his size, outside touch, and playmaking ability. Milton has made at least two threes in six straight games (17-for-37 3PT). Seniors Ben Moore and Sterling Brown embody the toughness of the SMU program. Both double-figure scorers (who each play 30.8 minutes per game) combine for 22.0 PPG, 14.2 RPG, and 4.9 APG. Fifth starter Jarrey Foster (9.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG) rounds out an imposing lineup that boasts nobody smaller than 6’6” and enables Jankovich to be able to switch on all screens and be flexible on defense. SMU doesn’t go for turnovers, they’ll grind you in the half-court for an entire possession and then not let you near an offensive rebound opportunity.