Charles E. Smith Center – Washington, DC
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: UCF -1.5

George Washington looks for its fifth win in its last six games when the team hosts UCF on Thursday night.

The battle between the Colonials and Golden Knights in Washington, DC Thursday evening will be a test of two teams playing at less than full strength. Both George Washington and UCF will be without main cogs in their lineups due to injuries to F Yuta Watanabe (13.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.2 BPG) for the Colonials and G B.J. Taylor (16 PPG, 5.0 APG) for UCF. Taylor leads the Golden Knights in points and assists while Watanabe is second on the Colonials in points per game and leads the team in blocks. Watanabe (calf) will be missing his seventh game (George Washington is 4-2, 2-3 ATS without Watanabe). Taylor broke his thumb in a UCF win over Massachusetts on Dec 3. UCF is 1-1 without him, but took a dreadful home loss against Pennsylvania (58-49, UCF -10) in their most recent contest sans Taylor on Monday night. Of George Washington’s last five wins, two of them have been as underdogs, as they won at Harvard on Nov. 29 (77-74, GW +3) and at Temple (66-63, GW +9) on a game winner with eight seconds left on Dec 7. George Washington’s most recent win was on Saturday, 79-62 over Howard at home. The Colonials are 0-3 ATS at home this season (5-1 overall). Under new coach Johnny Dawkins, UCF is off to a banner start including their own signature road win (65-62, UCF -3) versus Massachusetts that was decided by a buzzer-beating shot. Unfortunately it did come with a cost in Taylor’s injury. UCF is 2-0 (1-1) on the road this season. These two teams met last season at UCF with the Colonials winning 67-50 (UCF +5). In that matchup George Washington shot thanks to 52% FG and out-rebounded their hosts by 12. Look for a low-scoring affair in this one as the UNDER is 5-3 on the year for George Washington and 4-1 for UCF.

Although favorites in this game, Coach Dawkins will have to successfully get his squad beyond the debacle against Pennsylvania in which the struggle to score and distribute without the injured Taylor was very evident. The Golden Knights, without a true point guard healthy on the roster, turned it over 17 times against just six assists. Dawkins trotted out a lineup with so much size it would make NBA lineups from the earlier part of the decade blush: G Matt Williams (15.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 39% 3PT) was UCF’s smallest starter at 6’5”. 6’9” AJ Davis (5.3 PPG, 2.8 APG) joined Williams in the backcourt. Davis, who had a breakout season in 2015-16 with 12 PPG but floundered at the back-end of conference play in February and March, has gotten off to a rocky start recovering from a broken hand in a preseason practice. After missing UCF’s first six games, Davis hasn’t made more than two field goals in any of his four games this season. Anchoring UCF this season and flourishing under Dawkins has been C Tacko Fall (13.8 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 83% FG). The tallest player in college basketball at 7’6” has more than doubled his rebounding average and almost doubled his scoring average as a freshman. Fall is on the floor for 10 more minutes per game and is much more disciplined on defense, committing less fouls this season than last. As the anchor of UCF’s No. 2 ranked scoring defense in the country (55.3 PPG allowed) and the best FG against defense (31.1% FG), Fall and his teammates only have to put the ball in the basket at a mediocre rate themselves to be in (or win) a majority of their games. Unfortunately outings like the sub-50 point team effort against an Ivy League school give pause. There’s really no excuse, even for a team without a point guard, to not feed Fall the ball in the post. Fall was 8-for-8 FG and only shot three free throws in a game where his team scored 49 points. Shooting 18 threes, as UCF did against Penn (UCF made 5), is almost inexcusable with a matchup nightmare such as Fall in the paint. Fall hasn’t attempted more than eight shots in any of UCF’s last five games. George Washington has horrid assist-to-turnover numbers, so this will be a great opportunity for UCF to get their scoring priorities in order without Taylor to lead the show.

The Colonials offense revolves around senior F Tyler Cavanaugh (16.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 85.3% FT). Cavanaugh leads the team in points, rebounds and assists per game and has scored at least 12 points in every game this season but one (a 67-49 loss to Florida State on Dec 4). While Cavanaugh and the Colonials will face their toughest defensive test, Cavanaugh himself should prove to be a tough cover as someone who can play on the perimeter and create opportunities for others (six assists in the win over Howard on the 10th). Cavanaugh will need the help that he got in that win over Howard to repeat itself if the Colonials are to defend their home court against UCF. With the Golden Knights length deterring easy baskets inside, George Washington will turn to G Jaren Sina (10.5 PPG, 37.5% 3PT) to try and take the lid off the UCF defense from the perimeter. Sina, a Seton Hall transfer who’s struggled in large part this season, may be finally snapping out of a shooting slump, as he’s 9-for-19 from three in his past three games (including 5-10 and 20 points against Howard). The Colonials as a team shot 50% 3PT (13-26) against Howard, which includes G Jordan Roland (5.8 PPG) continuing his solid play in the absence of Watanabe. Roland was 3-5 from deep and his 11 points against Howard were his second straight double-figure effort. On defense, the Colonials will lean on two freshmen: 6’10’ Collin Smith (7.9 PPG, 6 RPG) and 6’9” Arnaldo Toro (5.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG) to ward off the large shadow that Fall casts on both ends. Expect both Smith and Toro to play increased minutes if George Washington wants to match the size of UCF’s starting unit.