Ben Hill Griffin Stadium – Gainesville, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Florida -17, Total: 47.5

Kentucky will need to fully shake off a nightmare loss to Southern Mississippi if it wants to take down Florida in The Swamp on Saturday.

Technically, Kentucky’s 2016 football season got off to a great start. By the second quarter, new starting sophomore QB Drew Barker had thrown four touchdowns and the Wildcats had a 35-10 lead on Southern Miss at home as three-point favorites. Then things took a turn for the worse. The Golden Eagles scored the game’s final 34 points—taking the lead for good before the fourth quarter had even started—and won 44-35. Kentucky was outgained by over 100 yards and logged less than half the time of possession as its opponent. It was an inauspicious start to the season for a program that is perpetually seeking to be competitive in the SEC, but rarely seems to be on the brink of actually doing so. While Florida’s opener was light-years better than Kentucky’s, it certainly didn’t please many UF fans. As 35-point favorites, the Gators stumbled their way to a 24-7 victory over UMass, a team that went 3-9 last season and returned only 10 starters this year. Florida had a good season last year in Jim McElwain’s first as head coach. The team finished a respectable 10-4 (7-6-1 ATS), a grand improvement upon Will Muschamp’s 11-13 record in his last two years at the helm. McElwain won SEC Coach of the Year, and expectations are high as always in Gainesville. But with several key departures from last year’s team, including two quarterback transfers, Florida is not a lock to pick up it they left off. Against the spread, Mark Stoops is 14-23 overall, 7-17 against conference opponents and 7-18 as an underdog during his tenure at Kentucky. Over the last three seasons, Florida is 0-7 ATS in home games coming off of games where it allowed 14 points or less. Kentucky junior WR Dorian Baker, who led the team with 56 receptions last year, sat out the opener and is questionable for Saturday.

Last year, the Wildcats finished 5-7 (3-9 ATS) and ended the year by losing six of their last seven games. They ranked 89th nationally in total offense and 63rd in total defense. Graduated QB Patrick Towles threw only nine touchdowns (and 14 picks) last year, so Barker is already on his way to being an improvement. Minus left tackle Jordan Swindle, every other starter returns on offense, and then some. Four running backs who rushed for over 100 yards return, most notably junior Boom Williams, who rushed for 855 yards and six TDs last year. He impressed against Southern Miss, gaining 94 yards on 13 carries. Baker supposedly was very close to playing last week, but fellow junior WR Garrett Johnson stepped up in his absence, pulling down six catches for 143 yards and two deep touchdowns. Many believe that a consistent passing game could lead to a big-time breakout season for Williams. All of it will depend on an offensive line that returns four starters but only one senior. The defense, on the other hand, loses six starters and most of its production from last year. There’s not much to get excited about up front, aside from the physical marvel of 6’7”, 360-lb nose tackle Matt Elam. The secondary should improve, though, as sophomores like SS Mike Edwards and CB Chris Westry have the potential to become impact players, albeit maybe not right away.

Florida got off to 6-0 and 10-1 starts last season before dropping their last three games to the likes of Florida State, Alabama and Michigan. Their third game (and win) of the season was a 14-9 slugfest as 3.5-point favorites at Kentucky. Each team had less than 250 yards of total offense. Starting QB Will Grier was suspended after six games, and the offense fell apart soon after under replacement Treon Harris. New starter for 2016 Luke Del Rio, a junior, put up a decent stat line against UMass (29-of-44 passing, 256 yards, 2 TDs), but few would describe the offense’s performance as particularly impressive. Grier was primed to end the years of quarterback woes that have plagued the program, but that job will instead fall to Del Rio. Unfortunately for him, last year’s leading rusher and leading receiver—RB Kelvin Taylor and Demarcus Robinson, respectively—won’t be around to help smooth the transition. Sophomore RB Jordan Scarlett saw a little action last season, and led the team with 13 carries and 70 yards last week. Senior Antonio Callaway and junior Brandon Powell are the leading returning receivers, and they combined for 15 catches, 145 yards and two touchdowns against UMass. Two-time All-American safety Vernon Hargreaves and All-SEC linebacker Antonio Morrison have moved on to starting roles in the NFL, but defense is still where the majority of talent lies on the Florida roster. The unit was one of eight in the country to allow fewer than 300 total yards per game last season, and they should once again be among the best in the nation. While the linebacking corps is solid, the defensive line and secondary are truly elite. Senior LB Jarrad Davis, junior CB Jalen Tabor and senior S Marcus Maye are all legitimate first-round talents, and there are pro prospects up and down the defensive depth chart.