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Padres host Kershaw's Dodgers on Monday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 4/4/2016  at  7:37:00 AM
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LOS ANGELES DODGERS (0-0)

at SAN DIEGO PADRES (0-0)

First pitch: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -200, San Diego +170, Total: 6.0

Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers kick off their 2016 season against Tyson Ross and the division-rival Padres in San Diego.

Opening Day—the real Opening Day—is upon us at last! Left-hander Clayton Kershaw (16-7, 2.13 ERA, 301 Ks in 2015), one of the best pitchers in the majors, will take the ball for the Dodgers (92-70 in 2015), who won the National League West last season before losing to the Mets in five games in the NLDS. He will be opposed by Padres (74-88 in 2015, fourth in NL West) right-hander Tyson Ross (10-12, 3.26 ERA, 212 Ks in 2015). The Dodgers, who are expected to contend for the division title again in 2016, lost ace Zack Greinke (19-3, 1.66 ERA, 200 Ks) in the offseason. They’ll try to replace his production with Scott Kazmir (7-11, 3.10 ERA in 2015) and Japanese free agent Kenta Maeda. They didn’t add any big-time bats, with their most notable addition being manager Dave Roberts, who coincidentally was hired away from the Padres. San Diego greatly underachieved in 2015, and decided to rebuild a bit in the offseason and restock their farm system. They traded shutdown closer Craig Kimbrel (2.58 ERA, 39 saves in 2015) and reliever Joaquin Benoit (2.34 ERA in 2015) and didn’t re-sign slugger Justin Upton (.251, 26 HRs, 81 RBIs, 19 SBs in 2015). Their only notable offensive addition was shortstop Alexei Ramirez (.249, 10 HRs, 62 RBIs, 17 SBs in 2015).

The Dodgers’ offense is led by 1B Adrian Gonzalez (.275, 28 HRs, 90 RBIs in 2015) and 3B Justin Turner (.294, 16 HRs, 60 RBIs in 2015). In his first full season in 2016, 23-year-old OF Joc Pederson (.210, 26 HRs in 2015) struggled to consistently reach base but showed that he can hit the ball out of the park. The Dodgers are looking for a bounce-back season from OF Yasiel Puig (.255, 11 HRs, 38 RBIs in 79 games) and production from SS Corey Seager (.337, 4 HRs, 17 RBIs), who played just 27 games last season. OF Carl Crawford (.265, 4 HRs, 16 RBIs in 69 games in 2015) has been a thorn in Ross’ side throughout his career, going 9-for-18 with four doubles and four walks. Gonzalez is 6-for-24 with two doubles against Ross and Turner is 3-for-9 with a pair of RBIs.

The Padres’ lineup isn’t particularly strong, and it will likely struggle against Kershaw in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. 1B Wil Myers (.253, 8 HRs, 29 RBIs in 60 games in 2015) is a dangerous hitter when healthy, but he suffered through an injury-plagued 2015. OF Matt Kemp (.265, 23 HRs, 100 RBIs in 2015) isn’t the superstar that he once was, but he’s still a middle-of-the-order bat. OF Melvin Upton, Jr. (.259, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs in 87 games in 2015) is a classic all-or-nothing power hitter, and it’s been far more nothing than something over the past three seasons. Unsurprisingly, Padres hitters haven’t fared particularly well against Kershaw. Myers is 0-for-8 with five strikeouts lifetime against the five-time All-Star and Upton, Jr. is 2-for-9 with five strikeouts. Ramirez has had plenty of success against him, going 5-for-8 with a double and no strikeouts, and Kemp is 2-for-5 with a double against the lefty. Lefties only hit .203 against Kershaw in 2015, and righties were even worse, batting .192. San Diego will have to play small ball and manufacture runs to have any chance against the two-time National League wins leader.


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