Oregon (19-13-1 ATS) and Duke (14-18-2 ATS) battle on Thursday night for the right to go to the Elite Eight. Oregon’s last trip that deep in the tournament was 2007, but coach Dana Altman has taken the Ducks to the NCAA Tournament for four straight years now, going 6-3 in the process. Altman’s first and only Sweet Sixteen appearance was the 2013 tournament where the Ducks (as a 12 seed) lost to Louisville. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has taken his Blue Devils to the Sweet Sixteen in 15 of his last 19 seasons (including this season), going 7-7 SU in that span. Duke has struggled mightily ATS (1-6) recently, covering for the first time in their last seven tries in their second-round win over Yale (71-64, Duke -6). Duke is 4-3 SU in that span, including their opening-round win over UNC-Wilmington (93-85, Duke -10). This will be both Duke’s first game against a Pac-12 opponent this season (and the same can be said for Oregon and the ACC). On neutral courts the Blue Devils are 5-3 SU but 1-7 ATS, and are a measly 1-5 SU (1-4-1 ATS) as underdogs this season. Oregon comes into this marquee matchup hot, winners of their last 10 games (6-4 ATS) including the Pac-12 Tournament. The Ducks carry the banner for their conference, with the Pac-12 flaming out in the opening rounds. Oregon gained a No. 1 seed after pasting Utah in the conference championship game, 88-57 (Oregon -2), and then proceeded to beat No. 15 Holy Cross (91-52, Oregon -23) and No. 8 St. Joseph’s (69-64, Oregon -7) most recently on Sunday. The Ducks are 7-1 (4-4 ATS) on neutral site courts and own a 23-3 (15-11 ATS) mark as a favorite. In total trends, the UNDER is 6-3 in Oregon’s last nine games.
The Blue Devils go from playing No. 12 and 13 seeds in Yale and UNC-Wilmington to the Pac-12 champion, No. 1 Oregon, which will obviously pose new problems for Duke. That said, Coach Krzyzewski does have experience from last season’s title run to lean on in the form of G Grayson Allen (21.8 PPG, 47% FG), C Marshall Plumlee (8.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG) and G Matt Jones (10.5 PPG, 40.5% 3PT). While Allen has been Duke’s leading scorer throughout the season and the NCAA Tournament (26 PPG, 90.5% FT) and Plumlee is 10-11 FG against lesser competition, posting tournament averages of 12 PPG and 9 RPG, Duke’s most dynamic offensive weapon has been freshman F Brandon Ingram (17.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 41.5% 3PT). He’s initiated the offense many times during Duke’s run while committing only one turnover, and has played all but one minute in the two Duke victories. In the last four games against Top 25 opponents, though (UNC twice, Louisville once, ND once), Ingram has struggled, shooting 18-59 from the field including an 8 point, 10 turnover performance against the Cardinals. While Oregon has one of the most imposing and long defenses in the nation around the rim, the Ducks can be had from the perimeter, and Duke at 38.7% 3PT (20th NCAA) and 9.2 3PM (24th NCAA) definitely has the ability to take advantage. Duke’s issues, as usual, will come from their woes keeping opponents off the offensive glass (332nd NCAA). They allowed Yale to crush them on the glass, 42-28, and Oregon has outrebounded eight of their last 10 opponents. Duke’s overall defense, a continuing question mark this season (72.2 PPG), struggles most against bigger teams who attack the paint, and Oregon much prefers to work closer to the basket and use the dribble drive instead of swinging the ball around for an open jumper.
Oregon will take their stifling interior defense (5.9 BPG, 3rd NCAA) into a matchup with perimeter-oriented Duke, and that could give the Ducks some problems. While there’s no doubt that Oregon has the athleticism and talent to run Duke off the floor, the Pac-12’s overall performance has given pundits pause in predicting much more success for Oregon beyond this round. The Ducks will have to exploit their advantage in the paint with athletic forwards Chris Boucher (12.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3 BPG), Elgin Cook (14.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and matchup nightmare Dillon Brooks (16.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.1 APG). Brooks’ 25 points carried Oregon to a closer-than-expected second round win over St. Joseph’s in the round of 32, and he’s coach Altman’s go-to guy in the clutch. Cook, a senior, has surprised with playmaking ability in the tournament, dishing four assists in each of Oregon’s two games, and is the type of strong, bouncy forward that seems to feast on Duke’s weak interior defense and rebounding. F Jordan Bell (6.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) had fallen out of the main rotation in favor of Boucher after recovering from injury earlier in the season, but the sophomore (Bell) has outplayed Boucher thus far in the tournament, defending smaller players better and cleaning the glass (10 rebounds versus St. Joseph’s). While Oregon is an average rebounding team overall, their skill on the offensive glass (32% OR, 50th NCAA) should be easily exploited against Duke. If Oregon can defend the long range shot (35.8% 3PT, 241st NCAA) better than they have for most of the year—and more like they have against Holy Cross and St. Joseph’s (both held under 27% 3PT)—they’ll have a much better chance to advance.
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