Spokane Arena – Spokane, WA
Tip-off: Friday, 9:57 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -1.5

No. 8 seed Saint Joseph’s—the Atlantic 10 Tournament champions—looks to keep winning as it goes up against No. 9 seed Cincinnati in the last game of the NCAA tournament’s first round.

St. Joseph’s (22-11 ATS) brings their stellar resume against the spread into Friday night’s game, as one of the few teams to be coming off of a win in their last game (defeating VCU in the A-10 tournament final, 87-74 – St. Joe’s +4.) The Hawks scorched the nets in Brooklyn, taking home their conference crown, shooting 64.8% FG in the championship game win. St. Joseph’s also shot 57.4% FG in their opening win over George Washington while defeating NCAA Tournament bound Dayton, 82-79 (St. Joe’s +2.5) in the semifinals on the strength of great shooting at the charity stripe (22-25) and timely bench scoring. Coach Phil Martelli’s Hawks actually were squarely on the bubble going into conference tournament play, having dropped consecutive games at home to St. Bonaventure and bottom-feeder Duquesne. The Hawks only played three NCAA tournament teams in their non-conference schedule, going 2-1 (2-1 ATS) against “Big Six” foes Villanova (loss) and Temple (win), while also defeating MAC champion Buffalo in the third game of the Hawks season. The Hawks have a “Power Six” win on a neutral court over Virginia Tech, which highlights their 5-2 (5-2 ATS) neutral site record. St. Joseph’s does well on 3+ days rest with a 14-2 (11-4 ATS) record. Even more impressively, St. Joseph’s is 8-2 (8-1-1 ATS) as an underdog. Cincinnati (12-16 ATS) comes off one of the most memorable games of the season, a heartbreaking four overtime defeat in the American Athletic Conference tournament to eventual champion Connecticut, in which the Huskies needed a half-court shot to force a fourth overtime. The Bearcats had defeated Connecticut in their previous two regular season meetings. Cincinnati closed out the season at 6-4 (4-6 ATS). The Bearcats played more non-conference NCAA Tournament opponents than St. Joseph’s and went 1-3 (1-3 SU) with their only win coming against common opponent VCU on the road (69-63, Cincy -2) on Dec. 19. Cincinnati’s non-conference losses include at Xavier and at home versus Iowa State and Butler. The Bearcats did defeat Nebraska and George Washington in neutral site games before taking their one neutral site defeat to Connecticut last Friday. As a favorite, Cincinnati is 17-7 (10-14 ATS). In total trends, the OVER is 11-2 in the last 13 games St. Joseph’s has played. This is only the third NCAA appearance for coach Martelli since St. Joseph’s famed 2003-04 Elite Eight team. The Hawks exited in the first round in both occasions since that Elite Eight run, their last appearance coming in 2013-14. Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin has taken his Bearcats to the tournament now for six straight seasons and is 3-4 overall. Cincinnati was a No. 8 seed last season, narrowly defeating Purdue (66-65) before losing to No. 1 overall seed Kentucky in the round of 32.

It will be interesting to see how coach Cronin gets his kids to rebound after the most draining loss of “Championship Week” last Friday. Cincinnati gets 7 days of rest but is only 10-7 (6-9 ATS) with 3+ days of rest or more. While the multiple overtime periods gave Cincinnati a chance to boost their scoring numbers, hitting 97 points for the game, the Bearcats do have big issues putting the ball in in the hoop (42.8% FG, 227th NCAA). Cincinnati has shot no better than 37.8% FG in their last three games and only have hit their season shooting average twice in their past nine games. While the Bearcats can hit from long range (7.6 3PM, 34.5% 3PT) they get frigid cold from beyond the arc at times (see 1-19 3PT versus SMU on Mar. 6 and 1-18 3PT at Temple on Jan. 16). Cincinnati plays at a very slow tempo (69 poss. per game, 282nd NCAA) which helps their scoring defense rank 9th in the country (62.9 PPG). The Bearcats defense isn’t solely pace-aided, however, as they manage to play very physical (5.8 BPG, 5th NCAA; 7.9 SPG, 19th NCAA) and crash the glass (12.1 ORG) all without fouling (15.6 PF, 6th NCAA). Due to this, Cincinnati unsurprisingly owns the #2 two-point FG% defense in the country (40.9%). It should be interesting to see how the Bearcats play against a team, such as St. Joseph’s, who’s been difficult to deter at the rim or take the ball away from, and whether Cincinnati can impose its will on the offensive glass, as St. Joseph’s also excels on their defensive glass. Shooting issues have been well-documented, but when Cincinnati is making shots, they have multiple options on offense (four double-figure scorers). G Troy Caupain (13.2 PPG, 4.8 APG) leads the way for the Bearcats and is coming off of a career-high 37 points (10 rebounds, 5 assists) in the loss to Connecticut. G Farad Cobb (10.7 PPG) provides a long range threat for the Bearcats (39.3% 3PT, 2.3 3PM) while F Gary Clark (10.7 PPG, 9 RPG) and F Octavius Ellis (10 PPG, 7.7 RPG) are both physical, long-armed forwards who block 1.5 shots each per game. Both Ellis and Clark closed out the season well, combining for 21.7 PPG and 21.9 RPG in their last eight games, and will be key in taking defensive responsibility for St. Joseph’s two best players.

The Hawks rely on standout forwards Isaiah Miles (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 52.4% FG) and DeAndre Bembry (17.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.5 APG). Unfortunately for St. Joseph’s, Cincinnati matches up very well on defense with St. Joseph’s, being able to (most likely) deploy the aforementioned Clark and Ellis on Miles and Bembry. The Hawks proficient offense (77.6 PPG, 57th NCAA) runs through Bembry as a point-forward, and Cincinnati’s Caupain (at 6’4”) could also draw the defensive assignment. St. Joseph’s strengths on offense are highlighted by the Hawks ranking in the top 60 in assists per game, rebounds per game, and two-point FG%. St. Joseph’s shoots 45.4% FG overall (85th NCAA) but struggles mightily from beyond the arc (32.7% 3PT). St. Joseph’s averaged 85 PPG in their three game run in Brooklyn to the conference tournament title. Miles and Bembry averaged 22.3 and 20 PPG, respectively, while G Aaron Brown (10.3 PPG) stepped up to provide a big third option with 16 PPG in the A-10 tournament. Brown’s continued contributions will be huge for St. Joseph’s chances at advancing beyond the first round. St. Joseph’s is also very good at taking care of the ball (10 TO/game), as Bembry isn’t the only player they can run the offense through, given the emergence of freshman G Lamarr Kimble (6 PPG) and sophomore G Shavar Newkirk (8.1 PPG). While St. Joseph’s defense leaves much to be desired at times, they could make life rough for Cincinnati beyond the arc (31% 3PT, 18th NCAA).