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No. 16 Oregon seeks payback Thursday vs. Colorado
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 2/4/2016  at  2:10:00 PM
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COLORADO BUFFALOES (17-5, 6-3 Pac-12)

at OREGON DUCKS (18-4, 7-2 Pac-12)

Matthew Knight Arena - Eugene, OR
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon -10, Total: 153

No. 16 Oregon tries to remain perfect at home on Thursday night when it welcomes red-hot Colorado to Matthew Knight Arena.

The Buffaloes (13-6 ATS overall) have won five of their past six contests, and picked up their third straight win Sunday in a 70-62 defeat of Cal. The Ducks (11-7 ATS overall) are a perfect 13-0 at home (7-3 ATS) this season, and are also sizzling with four straight victories (SU and ATS) since falling 91-87 in a thriller in Boulder on Jan. 17. Both teams shot exceptionally well in that matchup with Colorado making 50% FG and 57% threes and Oregon knocking down 52% FG and 57% threes. The difference was at the free-throw line, as the Buffs made 25-of-32 FT attempts (78%) and the Ducks made only 11-of-17 FT (65%). That gave Colorado a 6-3 SU advantage (5-4 ATS) in this series since joining the Pac-12, but Oregon holds the slight 2-1 edge (SU and ATS) at home during this timeframe. There are plenty of favorable betting trends for both schools on Thursday, as the Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season, and head coach Tad Boyle is 17-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog in his coaching career, including 14-3 ATS as a road 'dog of 10+ points. However, the Ducks are 23-3 ATS under head coach Dana Altman after a 4-1 ATS stretch in their previous five games, and are 15-5 ATS in the past three seasons following two straight Pac-12 victories. There are no new injuries for either school to be concerned with.

Can Oregon avenge its most recent loss to Colorado and win handily on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts are coming off two big weeks at 60% ATS (30-20), led by StatFox Dave and StatFox Zach both going 7-3 ATS. StatFox Brian had his seventh straight week of at least 60% ATS, giving him a stellar 69% ATS record (24-11) in this seven-week timeframe. StatFox Gary is also hot, going 60% ATS (15-10) over the past five weeks.

Colorado has a strong offense that scores 78.9 PPG (56th in nation) on a pedestrian 44.2% FG (159th in D-I), but is outstanding from beyond the arc at 41.2% threes (8th in nation). This is also an excellent rebounding team (+9.4 RPG margin, 13th in D-I), which helps make up for a turnover-prone offense (13.4 TOPG, 224th in nation). Defensively, the Buffaloes allow 70.2 PPG (146th in D-I) on 41.4% FG (96th in nation), but struggle to defend the perimeter in giving up 35.5% threes (237th in D-I). The Buffaloes are able to rack up an impressive 5.3 blocks per game (28th in nation), but their paltry 4.8 steals per game (313th in D-I) leads to just 10.9 forced TO per game (320th in nation). The star of this team is senior C Josh Scott (17.4 PPG, 9.5 RPG), whose 11 double-doubles rank second in the Pac-12. Scott has averaged a career double-double when facing Oregon, including 17 points and 11 rebounds in the Jan. 17 victory. Swingman George King (14.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG) shoots well from all areas of the floor at 48% FG, 48% threes and 75% FT, and has been on fire recently. The sophomore King has scored in double-figures in five straight games where he averages 17.8 PPG on 55% FG and 15-of-22 threes. Another player heating up is junior G Josh Fortune (10.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG) who had a season-high 21 points versus Stanford last week and scored eight points in just 14 minutes in Sunday's win over Cal. Sophomore PG Dominique Collier (8.6 PPG, 3.3 APG) filled up the stat sheet on Sunday with 14 points, four rebounds, three assists and three steals, and scored 14 points in the Pac-12 Tournament loss to Oregon last season. Collier has been lights-out from behind the arc all season at 49% (31-63). Another key contributor down low is 6-foot-9 junior F Wesley Gordon (6.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 2.1 BPG), who has multiple blocks in five of his past eight contests.

Oregon's offense has been strong all season at 78.3 PPG (75th in nation) on 47.1% FG (45th in D-I) and a mediocre 34.4% threes (183rd in D-I), which includes a recent surge of 87.2 PPG on 50.2% FG over the past five contests. This is a decent ball-handling team with 14.0 APG (130th in nation) and 12.3 TOPG (118th in D-I), and rebounding is solid too with a +3.5 RPG margin (88th in nation). The defense has also been sound in limiting opponents to 68.0 PPG (98th in D-I) on 41.3% FG (91st in nation) and 34.3% threes (175th in D-I). The Ducks force a bunch of turnovers (14.8 per game, 50th in nation) with an active defense that tallies 7.8 steals per game (42nd in D-I) and a hefty 6.0 blocks per game (7th in nation). Sophomore F Dillon Brooks (16.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.2 SPG) was named national player of the week for his heroics on the road at Arizona (24 points) and Arizona State (18 points) last week. Brooks is averaging 19.7 PPG during a seven-game streak of double-figure scoring, and has made 10 threes in the past five contests. F Elgin Cook (13.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) has also come on strong in his past five games with 16.8 PPG, including 14 points on Sunday. Freshman G Tyler Dorsey (13.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) rarely takes a bad shot, evidenced by his 46% FG and 44% threes this season. Dorsey is coming off a well-rounded effort at Arizona State when he recorded 16 points, seven rebounds, four assists and two steals. Two other players that have shined all season are 6-foot-10 C Chris Boucher (12.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG), who leads the nation with 3.3 blocks per game, and sophomore PG Casey Benson (6.0 PPG, 3.3 APG) who ranks second in Division-I in assist-to-turnover ratio at 5.54. Benson has 72 assists and only 13 turnovers all season.


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