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No. 16 Iowa State hosts No. 3 Kansas Monday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/25/2016  at  8:52:00 AM
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KANSAS JAYHAWKS (16-3, 5-2)

at IOWA STATE CYCLONES (15-4, 4-3 Big 12)

Hilton Coliseum - Ames, IA
Tip-off: Monday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Iowa State -2, Total: 161.5

A huge Big 12 clash takes place on Monday night when Iowa State hosts Kansas.

The Jayhawks (9-7 ATS) enter this matchup with four straight ATS defeats and two consecutive SU road losses by double-digits. After falling 74-63 at West Virginia on Jan. 12, they were crushed 86-67 at 9-point home underdog Oklahoma State on week later. The Cyclones (9-6 ATS) have rattled off three straight wins (SU and ATS) since an overtime loss at Texas, but are just 3-3 ATS at home this season. These conference foes have met three times in each of the past three seasons, with Kansas winning the first five matchups (4-1 ATS), and Iowa State taking three of the past four meetings (SU and ATS), including a 70-66 upset in the Big 12 Tournament Championship last season. Both teams provide plenty of reasons for bettor optimism, as the Jayhawks are 49-28 ATS versus good passing teams (16+ APG) after 15+ games since 1997, and head coach Bill Self is 15-5 ATS versus explosive offenses (84+ PPG) after 15+ games in this same timeframe. The Cyclones are 25-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less (or pick) since 1997, and are 13-5 ATS versus good teams (4+ PPG margin) after 15+ games in the past two seasons. There are no significant injuries for either team on Monday.

Who will pick up the big conference win on Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts are coming off a huge week at 64% ATS (16-9), led by StatFox Dave's perfect 5-0 ATS mark and StatFox Zach going 4-1 ATS. StatFox Brian had his sixth straight week of at least 60% ATS, giving him a stellar 67% ATS record (20-10) in this six-week timeframe. StatFox Gary is also hot, going 60% ATS (12-8) over the past four weeks, and StatFox Scott is a strong 56% ATS (10-8-2) in this same timeframe.

Kansas has a high-powered offense that generates 84.3 PPG (12th in nation) on 48.5% FG (22nd in D-I) and 43.6% threes (4th in nation). However, the offense has really slumped in the past five games with a mere 69.0 PPG on 41.8% FG. The Jayhawks are still very efficient with 16.8 APG (25th in D-I) and only 11.7 TOPG (67th in nation), which equals a stellar 1.44 Ast/TO ratio (29th in D-I). The defense allows a pedestrian 68.4 PPG (117th in nation), but limits opponents to 39.9% FG (41st in D-I) despite a subpar 34.2% threes (170th in nation). The team's 7.6 steals per game (56th in D-I) and 14.2 forced turnovers per game (88th in nation) also help keep opponent scores low. Rebounding is also strong at +5.5 RPG (45th in D-I), but the team has produced only 11.2 offensive RPG (157th in nation). Kansas has four main scorers it relies on with F Perry Ellis (16.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG), G Wayne Selden Jr. (14.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.8 APG), G Frank Mason III (13.2 PPG, 4.8 APG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG) and G Devonte' Graham (10.7 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.5 SPG). The senior Ellis is knocking down 50% FG and 47% threes this season, and has at least 10 points in 14 straight games, which includes 26 on Saturday. Ellis had 18.0 PPG and 8.5 RPG in two regular-season meetings with the Cyclones last year, but scored only seven points on 2-of-10 FG in the conference finals loss. Selden has been scorching from long range this season in making 49% threes (8th in nation), which is way up from his 37% clip from last season. The junior is coming off a huge 19-point, 5-rebound performance in Saturday's win versus Texas, and had little trouble scoring versus Iowa State last season with 19.0 PPG on 57% FG (8-of-15 threes) in the three meetings. The junior Mason has scored in double-figures in nine straight games (13.0 PPG), but has been ice-cold over the past three contests with a 28% FG clip (10-of-36). Graham has been outstanding in running the offense with a 3.5 Assist/Turnover ratio this season (15th in nation), and contributed 14 points and six assists on Saturday.

Iowa State is also an explosive offensive squad with 84.4 PPG (11th in nation) on a blistering 50.2% FG (6th in D-I) and solid 36.6% threes (93rd in nation). This is an average foul-shooting team at 70.5% FT (139th in D-I) that rarely gets to the line with a mere 308 free-throw attempts (330th in nation). However, the team has a strong 1.48 Ast/TO ratio (23rd in D-I) because it usually makes the extra pass (16.6 APG, 29th in nation) and rarely turns the ball over (11.3 TOPG, 42nd in D-I). Iowa State does not have a very tough defense, allowing 73.7 PPG (223rd in nation) on 42.8% FG (156th in D-I) and 35.6% threes (245th in nation), but it stays out of foul trouble with the fewest amount of personal fouls in D-I (14.7 per game). The team is strong on the defensive glass (28.7 Def. RPG, 23rd in nation), but grabs only 9.7 offensive RPG (264th in D-I). Two upperclassmen carry this program, senior F Georges Niang (19.3 PPG, 2nd in Big 12) and junior PG Monte Morris, whose stellar 4.5 Ast/TO ratio ranks seventh in the nation. The burly 6-foot-8 Niang rarely takes a bad shot, as evidenced by his 53% FG, 40% threes and 84% FT this season. He also grabs 6.4 RPG and dishes out 3.2 APG, and has a current streak of 28 straight double-figure scoring games dating to last season. However, Niang coming off a season-low 11 points (4-of-12 FG) in Saturday's win where he committed a troubling seven turnovers. Niang averaged 19.3 PPG (7-of-15 threes) in three meetings with Kansas last season, and will be counted on to produce a similar output on Monday. Morris has a career-high 15.2 PPG and 4.0 RPG this season, while ranking 11th in the nation in assists (6.8 APG) and 30th in steals (2.11 SPG). He has committed more than three turnovers just once in 89 career games (4 TO last season at Kansas), and recorded a double-double of 11 points and 10 assists, along with seven rebounds, in the home win over the Jayhawks last season. Senior F/C Jameel McKay (13.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) has five double-doubles this season and came close to adding to that total in both games last week. After tallying eight points and 13 rebounds versus then-No. 1 Oklahoma, he followed that with eight points and 10 boards in Saturday's win. He is shooting 59% from the floor this season (29th in nation) and averaged 10.0 PPG on 68% FG (13-of-19) versus the Jayhawks last season. Junior G Matt Thomas (10.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) is the school's best long-range shooter, as he is making 42% of his threes. Thomas has scored at least 11 points in four straight games, including 15 points on 5-of-8 FG (3-of-4 threes) in Saturday's win at TCU. Senior F Abdel Nader (12.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG) was a big reason his team upset the Sooners last week with 20 points, but struggled on Saturday with more turnovers (five) than rebounds (four) in his 30 minutes of action.


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