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Oregon entertains Stanford on Sunday night
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/10/2016  at  5:14:00 AM
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STANFORD CARDINAL (9-5, 2-1 Pac-12)

at OREGON DUCKS (12-3, 1-1 Pac-12)

Matthew Knight Arena - Eugene, OR
Tip-off: Sunday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon -9, Total: 139.5

Stanford will try to become the first visiting team to win in Eugene this season when it visits Oregon on Sunday night.

Both teams are hot entering Sunday, as the Cardinal (6-6 ATS) have a 7-2 SU record in their past nine games, while the Ducks (5-6 ATS) have won five of their past six contests. Stanford improved to 3-1 ATS on the road this season with a 78-72 win at 6.5-point favorite Oregon State on Wednesday, while Oregon topped California 68-65 that same night to improve to 10-0 SU at home this season. In the past nine meetings between these schools, the road team is 6-3 (SU and ATS) with the Ducks prevailing 73-70 at Stanford last season and the Cardinal posting a narrow 82-80 victory at Eugene two seasons ago. There are plenty of trends favoring both teams in this matchup, as Stanford is 27-14 ATS after a 2-1 SU stretch in the past three seasons, and is facing an opponent that is 0-7 ATS versus good foul-drawing teams (25+ FTA per game) in the past two years. But Oregon is 30-16 ATS under head coach Dana Altman when the total is 130 to 139.5, and its opponent is 1-8 ATS on the road in the past two seasons following three straight conference games. The Cardinal have no new injuries since losing F Reid Travis (12.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG) to a leg injury in mid-December, but the Ducks have had a tough week with losing G Dylan Ennis to a season-ending foot injury and then seeing F Trevor Manual leave the team.

Will Oregon coast to an easy victory on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts have a profitable 53% ATS record (66-58-1) in Best Bets over the past five weeks, including 58% ATS (14-10-1) last week. StatFox Brian has a 68% ATS mark (17-8) in the past five weeks, while StatFox Zach is a profitable 55% ATS (41-37-2) over the past six weeks.

Stanford's offense has struggled this season with a conference-low 71.6 PPG on 43.3% FG (10th in Pac-12) and 34.1% threes. Excluding its recent game versus NAIA school Carroll College, the Cardinal have only 69.2 PPG on 39% FG, 30% threes over their past five games. Although the offense has the fewest assists in the Pac-12 (12.2 APG), it turns the ball over just 11.9 times per game, which is the fewest in the conference. This is also a quality rebounding squad with a +4.0 RPG margin and 12.8 offensive RPG this season, and is coming off a season-high 18 offensive rebounds in the win over Oregon State. Defensively, Stanford has not allowed more than 75 points in 10 straight games, holding opponents to 60.4 PPG during this stretch. For the season, the team allows 65.4 PPG (3rd in Pac-12) on 42.0% FG and 32.6% threes, and produces a solid 6.7 steals per game (4th in conference) and 4.1 blocks per game (108th in nation). The Cardinal have five players averaging double-figure scoring this season, led by F Rosco Allen (14.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) who is draining 41% threes. The senior Allen has scored at least 11 points in eight of the past nine games, averaging 16.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 40% threes (20-for-50) during this stretch. Junior G Marcus Allen (12.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.9 SPG) is the second-leading scorer, but although his points have doubled from last season (6.4 PPG) to this season (12.8 PPG), his shooting rate has dropped from 51% FG to 42% FG this season. Allen has 2+ steals in six of his past seven games, averaging 2.43 SPG during this stretch, and played well versus Oregon last season with 14 points and seven rebounds. Sophomore G Dorian Pickens (12.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.5 APG) is in a major shooting slump in the past three games at 26% FG and 2-of-13 threes, but has contributed in other areas with 6.0 RPG, eight assists and only one turnover during this three-game stretch. The last of the healthy double-figure scorers is F Michael Humphrey (10.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG) who is shooting 50% FG this season. The sophomore Humphrey has scored at least 10 points eight times this season and has played very well in the past six games with 13.3 PPG on 50% FG.

Oregon's offense hasn't been great this season at 75.9 PPG (9th in Pac-12) on 45.5% FG (8th in conference) and 32% threes (11th in Pac-12), but these numbers jump to 80.1 PPG and 47% FG at home where it outscores opponents by 15.4 PPG. The Ducks have a pedestrian 13.7 APG (9th in conference) and 12.8 TOPG this season, but are a quality rebounding team with a +3.5 RPG margin. They are also a strong defensive team, allowing only 65.7 PPG (4th in Pac-12) on 40% FG and 32% threes this season, and the 10 visitors to Matthew Knight Arena are shooting only 39% FG and 30% threes. The Ducks force 15.4 TOPG thanks to a hefty 8.1 steals per game (42nd in nation) and 6.1 blocks per game (9th in D-I). Four Oregon players are scoring more than a dozen points per contest, with F Dillon Brooks leading the charge with 15.2 PPG plus 6.3 RPG and 2.9 APG. Brooks had scored at least 12 points in nine straight games before struggling Wednesday with only four points (2-of-10 FG) and five turnovers, but he also contributed five boards, four assists and two steals in that narrow win. Brooks had a horrible game at Stanford last year when he was held scoreless (0-for-5 FG) with just one rebound in 20 minutes of action before fouling out. G Tyler Dorsey (14.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) is having an outstanding freshman campaign with a 48% FG clip and 49% threes (28-of-57). He has scored in double-figures in 10 straight games (15.2 PPG) and has done a great job of getting to the line with 27-of-33 FT (82%) in the past six contests. Senior F Elgin Cook (13.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is coming off a rough shooting performance against Cal (3-of-12 FG), which was surprising after his string of six straight games of making at least half of his shots (56% FG, 35-of-62). But he expects to bounce back in a big way on Sunday against a Stanford team he lit up for a game-high 21 points (7-of-10 FG, 6-of-8 FT) and five rebounds last season. The final double-digit scorer is 6-foot-10 F Chris Boucher (12.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG). In two Pac-12 games, the junior has 17.0 PPG on 12-of-21 FG (57%) with 6.0 RPG, and racked up four blocks and four steals in Wednesday's win.


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