StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

WSU entertains No. 9 Stanford Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/28/2015  at  12:00:00 PM
  Print This Article    

STANFORD CARDINAL (6-1)
at WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (5-2)

Martin Stadium - Pullman, WA
Kickoff: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -10.5, Total: 62

Two red-hot, Pac-12 teams collide Saturday night in Pullman when No. 8 Stanford visits Washington State.

The Cardinal are riding a six-game win streak (SU and ATS) with all of them coming by double-digits. Last week, they dispatched Washington 31-14 and have scored 41 and 42 points in their past two road wins at USC and Oregon State. The Cougars have ripped off three straight SU wins and four consecutive ATS victories. They have thrown for more than 400 yards in three straight wins, including 514 in last week's 45-42 upset at 7-point favorite Arizona. Stanford has completely dominated this series in recent years with seven straight victories (5-2 ATS), and only once has the final score margin been within single-digits. In last year's meeting, Washington State gained minus-26 rushing yards in a 34-17 road loss, and there are several betting trends expecting the Cardinal to roll to an eighth straight win in this series, such as their 7-0 ATS record as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points in the past two seasons and 8-0 ATS mark after two straight wins by 17+ points under head coach David Shaw. But bettors taking the Cougars can point to Mike Leach's 23-6 ATS record versus good rushing teams (200+ YPG) as a college head coach and the fact that college football underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a win percentage of 60% to 80%, after beating the spread by 21+ total points in their previous three games are 84-42 ATS (67%) versus wining teams since 1992. There are only two significant injuries, both with Stanford in LBs Noor Davis (leg) and Kevin Anderson (ankle).

Can Stanford win big again in this Pac-12 matchup? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is starting to heat up with a 58% ATS record (7-5) on Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Stanford has piled up 37.4 PPG on 455 total YPG this season, and those numbers have jumped in conference play to 45.0 PPG and 490 total YPG. This is an excellent rushing football team with 221 rushing YPG on 5.0 YPC, which has led to a dominant 35:31 average time of possession. Sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey has been tremendous all season, ripping off five straight games of 100+ rushing yards. In the past three contests, he has scored seven times and is coming off a monster game versus Washington where he racked up 109 rushing yards and 112 receiving yards, while scoring a touchdown in each category. Senior QB Kevin Hogan (1,576 pass yds, 9.9 YPA, 14 TD, 4 INT) has also been on a scoring binge with 2+ TD passes in six straight games. Hogan had a huge performance against WSU last season when he completed 23-of-35 passes for 284 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. The Cardinal defense has played pretty well this season in allowing 20.6 PPG and 339 total YPG. The run-stop unit has held opponents to 133 YPG on 4.0 YPC while the passing defense allows 206 YPG on 6.4 YPA on a mere 53% completion rate. But this is not a unit that forces many mistakes, as evidenced by its four games without a takeaway this season. That's great news for a Cougars offense that has 2+ giveaways in three of the past four contests.

Despite the miscues, Washington State has still produced 36.4 PPG on 506 total YPG this season, including an even heftier 42.5 PPG on 549 total YPG in conference play. Despite this being such an aerial offense with 415 passing YPG (7.4 YPA) and 72% completions, the Cougars have managed to possess the football for an average of 33:03 per game. The rushing attack averages only 91 YPG on 3.7 YPC, which suits QB Luke Falk just fine. The sophomore has completed a robust 73% of his throws for 2,885 yards (7.5 YPA), 26 TD and only 4 INT. Although he has been sacked 22 times, he's learning how to make quicker reads and has torched his past three opponents for a total of 1,426 yards (475 YPG) and 16 touchdowns. He has been able to rack up such big numbers because of an explosive pass-catching duo of WRs Gabe Marks (57 rec, 717 yds, 10 TD) and Dom Williams (41 rec, 562 yds, 6 TD). Marks caught 4 TD passes last week at Arizona and Williams has at least five receptions in all but one game this season. The WSU defense certainly has its flaws though, allowing 31.0 PPG and 426 YPG for the season, and 36.2 PPG and 470 total YPG in Pac-12 play. The rushing defense hasn't stopped many ball carriers at 204 YPG allowed on 5.1 YPC, and will be in for a stiff test against a great Stanford rushing team. The Cougars have also given up 222 YPG through the air on 7.3 YPA and 67% completions. But with all these yards comes a handful of big plays, as WSU has turned the football over multiple times in five of the past six games.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: