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Struggling Lions face Chiefs Sunday in London
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/28/2015  at  9:49:00 AM
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DETROIT LIONS (1-6)
vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-5)

Wembley Stadium - London, England
Kickoff: Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Line: Kansas City -4, Total: 45

A pair of sub-.500 teams will look to entertain the London faithful on Sunday morning when the Lions and Chiefs meet in England.

Detroit is a miserable 1-6 (SU and ATS) this season and four of those losses have been by more than a touchdown. This includes a 28-19 home defeat to Minnesota last week that prompted the firing of three coaches, including offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. His replacement is 31-year-old quarterbacks coach Jim Bob Cooter, who has worked with QB Matthew Stafford for two seasons. Kansas City is only one win better at 2-5 (SU and ATS), but the club is coming off its best performance of the season, a 23-13 win over Pittsburgh. These franchises meet only once every four years, and the last matchup was one the Chiefs would like to forget, as the Lions rolled to a 48-3 victory thanks largely to six forced turnovers. There are plenty of betting trends thinking Detroit can win again, with its 49-31 ATS (61%) record after being outgained by 100+ total yards last game since 1992, and the fact that favorites after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games facing an opponent that allowed 25+ points in two straight games are 15-41 ATS (27%) in the past 10 seasons. But Kansas City is 7-0 ATS after 2+ straight Unders in the past two seasons and its London opponent is 0-6 ATS in non-home games versus awful passing defenses (260+ YPG allowed) since 2013. The injury lists aren't very deep with Lions OT LaAdrian Waddle (knee) being questionable, but QB Matthew Stafford (hand), TE Brandon Pettigrew (elbow) and concussed DBs Rashean Mathis and Josh Wilson all being upgraded to probable. For the Chiefs, WR Jeremy Maclin (concussion) and LB Tamba Hali (knee) are both probable, while OL Ben Grubbs (neck), DL Mike DeVito (concussion) and LB Ramik Wilson (knee) are all questionable.

Which struggling team will pick up the victory across the Pond? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the experts have a collective 58% ATS record (60-43-2) in NFL Best Bets, including a 67% ATS success rate (20-10-1) in the past two weeks. StatFox Dave is leading the charge at 68% ATS (19-9) this season, while StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (15-12-1) and StatFox Gary and Scott are both tied at 54% ATS (13-11). StatFox Scott continues to profit in NFL Totals this season at 54% (13-11).

Detroit's offense has been dreadful this year, failing to score 20 points in five of its seven contests. In addition to its poor 19.9 PPG, it has just 347 total YPG. The ground game has been the biggest problem with an anemic 68 YPG on 3.5 YPC. QB Matthew Stafford has thrown for 267 YPG on 65% completions, but has nine interceptions to go with 12 TD passes. Although he is only 13-24 in 37 career non-home starts, he has thrown for 280 YPG, 59 TD and 32 INT in these contests. Stafford's go-to receiver is WR Calvin Johnson (70 targets, 43 rec, 574 yds, 3 TD), but No. 2 WR Golden Tate has just nine fewer targets than Johnson with only 318 receiving yards (9.4 avg) to show for it. Rookie RB Ameer Abdullah (222 rush yds, 3.6 YPC, 1 TD) needs to find more holes, as does veteran RB Joique Bell who has carried the football 23 times for 43 yards (1.9 YPC). Last season, Bell had 860 rushing yards (3.9 YPC) and 7 TD. Defensively, Detroit hasn't lived up to lofty expectations, allowing 28.6 PPG and 392 total YPG. These numbers have been even more porous over the past three games (34.7 PPG, 405 total YPG). The passing defense has been particularly awful, allowing 269 YPG on 8.5 YPA and a 73% completion rate. The run defense hasn't been great either with 123 YPG on 4.1 YPC, and the team has only two takeaways in the past three games combined. Considering how well the Chiefs protect the football, with only three takeaways in the past five games combined, the Lions should not expect to be given anything by their opponent's offense.

Kansas City's offense has underachieved this season with 21.4 PPG, but still has 346 total YPG and 5.8 yards per play. The ground game has 106 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC, while the air attack has a respectable 240 YPG on 7.0 YPA. Veteran QB Alex Smith has completed 63% of his throws for 261 YPG, but has just 7 TD and 3 INT in the seven games. He is also a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) versus Detroit in his career, but has thrown for just 179 YPG, 4 TD and 1 INT in those four meetings. Although the Chiefs can't possibly replace superstar RB Jamaal Charles, who suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago, they are very pleased with how well RB Charcandrick West ran against the Steelers last Sunday. The second-year pro carried the football 22 times for 110 yards (5.0 YPC) and a touchdown and added two catches for another 19 yards. The 205-pound back will likely see another big workload on Sunday. Defensively, the Chiefs continue to struggle, surrendering 24.6 PPG on 368 total YPG, including 403 total YPG on 6.4 yards per play in non-home games. While the run-stop unit has been decent, allowing 103 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC, the passing defense is surrendering 265 YPG on 7.2 YPA. After forcing only two turnovers during four straight losses, Kansas City has been able produce five takeaways in the past two games.


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