TCF Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan -14, Total: 39

No. 15 Michigan and Minnesota will square off for the 102nd time on Saturday in Minneapolis as the rivals play for The Little Brown Jug.

Michigan (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) will look to rebound from the last second Agony in Ann Arbor two weeks ago, a game in which they entered the final play with a 99% win probability but muffed a punt then kicked it into the arms of Michigan State's Jalen Watts-Jackson who returned it 38 yards for a game-winning touchdown. Minnesota (4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS), also coming off a bye week, endured its second loss of 20+ points in three games at the hands of Nebraska, 48-25. Defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys was promoted to interim head coach to replace the newly retired Jerry Kill for the remainder of the season. The Wolverines hold a definitive all-time series advantage with 73 wins, 25 losses and three ties, including a dominant 39-4 SU advantage in the past 43 meetings. However, the Golden Gophers did take back the Jug last year in Ann Arbor, snapping a six-game losing skid in this series. Minnesota, which currently stands as a 13-point underdog, is 6-2 ATS over the past three years in games it was an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points, and 10-5 ATS against teams with a winning record the past three years. Bettors should take note that Michigan is 13-6 ATS in this series since 1992, including a 7-1 mark in Minneapolis. The Wolverines are also 7-2 ATS the last three years coming off a conference loss. Michigan has no notable injuries, as the players listed on the team’s injury report have been almost non-contributors this season in severely limited action. Minnesota’s injury report is of greater significance, as OL Josh Campion, who started every game his first three years from 2012-2014, has an undisclosed injury, as does fellow OL Brian Bobek, who has started three times this year.

Can Minnesota knock off Michigan for the second straight season? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is starting to heat up with a 58% ATS record (7-5) on Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Despite the improbable loss last time out, the Wolverines didn't play their "A" game, as they were outgained by 158 yards, including a season-low 62 rushing yards, and allowed a season-high 328 passing yards. For the season, they are averaging 28.6 PPG and 368 total YPG. This yardage is a nearly even split between 186 passing YPG (6.5 YA) and 181 rushing YPG (4.4 YPC). Senior QB Jake Rudock has not thrown for 200 yards in six straight games, tossing only 3 TD and 3 INT during this stretch. If junior RB De'Veon Smith (436 rush yds, 4.5 YPC, 4 TD) is ineffective like he was last week with 46 yards on 19 carries (2.4 YPC), Rudock will have to air out the football. The offense hasn't needed to be great this season because the Michigan defense has allowed the fewest total YPG in the nation (211 YPG), excelling at both stopping the run (65 YPC, 2nd in FBS) and the pass (146 YPG, 2nd in nation). A low-scoring game certainly plays in the Wolverines favor as they are 75-35 ATS when allowing 14 points or less since 1992, including 4-1 this season. The Gophers are also 13-44 ATS when scoring 14 or fewer points in this same timeframe.

Tracy Claeys has a tall task of replacing the popular Jerry Kill, and must improve Minnesota in nearly all facets. In the last game, the Gophers allowed a season high in passing yards (261) while recording a season-low 65 rushing yards on 26 carries. The offense has only 20.4 PPG and 351 total YPG this season and is facing arguably the best defense in the country. Minnesota is 10-24 ATS when gaining 250 total yards or fewer since 1992, and Michigan has held opponents to 250 total yards or fewer five times this season, going 4-1 in these games. Junior QB Mitch Leidner (1,310 pass yds, 6.2 YPA, 7 TD, 6 INT) has thrown six interceptions and only four touchdowns in the past five games, but is coming off a season-high 301 passing yards (1 TD, 2 INT) in the loss to Nebraska. The best offensive player on the team is freshman RB Rodney Smith (467 rush yds, 4.1 YPC, 1 TD), but he hasn't had enough touches in the past three games with only 32 carries for 104 yards (3.3 YPC) and zero touchdowns. This defense has been solid in limiting teams to 23.1 PPG and 329 total YPG this season, broken down between 177 passing YPG (5.6 YPA) and 151 rushing YPG (3.9 YPC). The Gophers will need to become big-play seeking ball hunters, as the Wolverines two losses this season have come in games where they both lost the turnover battle and allowed a defense or special teams touchdown.