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Reds, Cubs meet in Chicago Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 4/14/2015  at  9:42:00 AM
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CINCINNATI REDS (4-3)

at CHICAGO CUBS (4-2)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -150, Cincinnati +140, Total:

The Chicago Cubs look to build on a solid start to the 2015 season when they host the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night.

After winning their first four games of the year behind some tremendous pitching (3.0 runs per game allowed) against the Pirates and Cardinals, the Reds have run into some trouble, losing the last two games against St. Louis before losing in extra innings on Monday against this Cubs team. Scoring was there for the taking as each group plated three runs in the first inning and totaled 23 hits together, but Cincinnati’s bullpen could not keep the young Chicago group in check as they gave up three runs in just 2.1 IP. After missing a majority of the 2014 campaign, 1B Joey Votto (.345) has started off the year right with multiple hits in four of the first seven games as he’s added a double, triple, three homers and eight RBIs. The Cubs have lived up to their preseason hype after finding their hitting stroke in a recent three-game winning streak as they’ve scored 22 runs in that time. It was evident that this year’s ballclub has a different feel than in the past as they overcame another subpar start from Jon Lester with 10 hits and three of them leaving the yard. OF Jorge Soler (.304) provided two of those long balls with four RBIs in the win and has seven hits in his last five contests. Getting the start in this divisional matchup will be 24-year-old RHP Anthony DeSclafani (0-0, 3.00 ERA) for the visitors as he faces RHP Jake Arrieta (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Chicago’s win on Monday was a rare one against this opponent as Cincinnati has compiled a 25-14 record against the Cubs since the start of 2013 and are 13-7 when playing as the road team in that time. They were swept in the last series in the Windy City, though, as they were outscored 11-1 over three games in mid-September of 2014. Some trends to watch out for include that the Reds are a solid 345-374 (.480) as a road underdog of +100 to +150 since 1997 as Chicago is 9-3 (.750) when Arrieta is pitching in the first half of the season since the start of last year. This early-season matchup has both teams rather healthy with no significant injuries to either side’s offense.

DeSclafani made his way to the Reds after being one of the top prospects in the Marlins system where he struggled in his MLB debut last year, posting a 6.27 ERA over 13 games (5 starts) despite striking out 7.1 batters per nine innings and walking very few (1.4 BB/9). He’s always been a solid strikeout pitcher when in the minor leagues and also left more than 70% of runners on base in each of his stops. His first start with his new team was fantastic when he went six innings against the Pirates and gave up two runs on five hits while striking out six (1 walk) in the win. The youngster has faced this opponent just once when he saw them last year and got through 6.1 frames; allowing four runs on six hits as he earned a no-decision in the win. He hasn’t seen much of the Cubs roster with only four players on the team having faced him before and they have combined to go 3-for-10 with OF Junior Lake connecting for a two-run homer. The Reds’ bullpen has not been successful in the early going as they are 4-2 with a 4.94 ERA (1.48 WHIP) and have gone 2-for-6 in save chances. Those blown saves have not come from closer Aroldis Chapman (0.00 ERA, 2 saves), though, as he has given up just two hits with seven strikeouts in his five innings of work.

Arrieta had a breakout season in 2014 with the Cubs as he had career-best marks in games started (25), ERA (2.53), K/9 (9.6), BB/9 (2.4) and HR/9 (0.29). The last number may be the most impressive as he pitched 156.2 innings, with many of them coming in a batters park at Wrigley, and allowed a meager five homers. He has continued that amazing play with his 2015 debut going phenomenally as he pitched seven innings of shutout ball and allowed three hits with seven strikeouts (3 walks) against a tough Cardinals group. This will be his third start against the Reds and he has gone 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA (0.75 WHIP) and was nearly unhittable (9 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 13 Ks) when he last saw them at the end of last year. Despite his dominance against this team, 2B Brandon Phillips (2-for-6, 2 RBIs) has been successful against him while OF Jay Bruce (1-for-8, 5 Ks), 3B Todd Frazier (2-for-9, 2 RBIs, 6 Ks) and 1B Joey Votto (0-for-3) have really had no chance. The bullpen for Chicago has been great to start the year and is 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA (1.02 WHIP) as it’s successfully saved both of its save opportunities. Both of those saves went to closer Hector Rondon (0.00 ERA, 2 saves) who has given up a mere four hits in his first five innings on the bump.


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