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Heat face Spurs in San Antonio Friday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 2/6/2015  at  11:26:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (21-28)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (31-18)

Tip-off: Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -10, Total: 186.5

The San Antonio Spurs finish off a six-game home stand when they host the struggling Miami Heat for the first time since the NBA Finals.

The Heat have had a ton of issues this year with the combination of LeBron James going to Cleveland and injuries to key players. The team comes into this contest with losses in four of its past five games. The Heat managed to score just 89.8 PPG during that time and was defeated on three occasions as the favorite. Miami took another tough loss on Wednesday night against one of the worst teams in the league, the Minnesota Timberwolves, in a 102-101 game on the road. The Heat was giving two points as the away team and turned the ball over 18 times as the team let Minnesota hit 37-of-72 shots (51% FG). The Spurs have been playing some rather weak competition of late, but they are winning the games they are supposed to, going 11-4 SU since the start of January. If bettors decided to fade San Antonio over that stretch it would have been smart with the team being 6-9 ATS and failing to cover in each of its last six. The Spurs have been double-digit favorites in four of their past five contests and were giving 13.5 points to Orlando in the 110-103 win on Wednesday night. The offense shot a blistering 52.4% from the floor in the high-scoring game and were on from behind the arc as well, making 14-of-32 threes (44% 3PM). Miami has performed better when on the road this year as evidenced by its 13-13 SU record (15-10-1 ATS) as they go up against a Spurs unit which is 19-7 SU (9-15-2 ATS) at home. This will be the first meeting between these two clubs since last year’s NBA Finals where San Antonio won in five games against a Heat team that still had the best player in the world (LeBron James). In the series, the Spurs scored 105.6 PPG as they made 50% or more of their shots in four of the five contests. Overall in the past three years the teams have split 16 meetings against each other SU (8-8) with San Antonio having a 10-6 ATS edge and winning five of eight games when at home. Trends show that the Spurs are a putrid 0-8 ATS when playing on their second game in five days this year as they have also gone 20-6 ATS (77%) after a game where they made 12 or more three point shots in the past two seasons. In injury news, SG Dwyane Wade (Hamstring) continues to miss time and SF Shawne Williams (Hip) is questionable for this game as San Antonio has no significant injuries to its club.

Can the Heat win a big road game in San Antonio Friday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 56% ATS record (130-102-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a huge 62% ATS (80-49) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Scott who is a stellar 67% ATS (22-11) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 56% ATS (41-32) for the season. StatFox Brian is sizzling with a 63% ATS (17-10) mark in Best Bets since Dec. 31, and is now 56% ATS (41-32) in season Best Bets. StatFox Gary is also red-hot with a 62% ATS (16-10) record in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 1, and 56% ATS (41-32) this season. StatFox Zach is 62% ATS (16-10) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 2, while StatFox Dave is 64% ATS (9-5) in NBA Best Bets since Jan. 18.

The Heat offense has been nearly non-existent this season as the team has scored the second-fewest points in the league (92.6 PPG) behind 45.6% shooting from the field. Its defensive unit has benefited from the slow pace and is allowing just 96.3 PPG (2nd in league) with the opposition making 45.6% of their shots (10th-worst in league). PF Chris Bosh (21.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) has made less than 36% of his attempts in three of his last four games and is coming off a rough game (14 points, 5 rebounds) on 5-of-14 shooting against Minnesota. He had some very nice performances in his two times facing the Spurs last year, scoring 24.0 PPG (73% FG) with 6.0 RPG. C Hassan Whiteside (9.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.5 BPG) has been one of the better stories of this season and had yet another monster game (24 points, 20 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 blocks) despite losing on Wednesday. He has never had the opportunity to go against San Antonio in his career. SF Luol Deng (14.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.1 SPG) should have a few more opportunities with Wade out and put up 18 points in his last game. He didn’t do much in his one game against the Spurs last year with nine points and three assists,

San Antonio has continued with its great efficiency on offense and is scoring 101.0 PPG (13th in league) behind 45.7% shooting (9th in league) as they dish out 24.3 APG (6th in league). The defense has also done a good job in the tough Western Conference and is giving up a mere 97.4 PPG (7th in league) on 44.3% shooting. PF Tim Duncan (14.8 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.9 BPG) is coming off one of his best performances of the year when he dropped 26 points to go along with 10 rebounds, a steal and a block against Orlando. “Big Fundamental” had some of his best scoring games against Miami over two contests in last year’s regular season, averaging 23.0 PPG (69% FG), 7.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG and 1.0 SPG. SF Kawhi Leonard (15.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.1 SPG) put up a full stat line (18 points, 5 rebounds, 5 steals, 4 steals, 1 block) against the Magic and was the Finals MVP last year against the Heat when he scored 17.8 PPG. PG Tony Parker (14.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) hasn’t been the prolific scorer that he once was, scoring in the single-digits in three of his last seven contests and didn’t do too well (14.0 PPG, 5.5 APG) in two matchups with Miami last year during the regular season.


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