StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Seahawks favored big over surging Cowboys on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/12/2014  at  5:48:00 AM
  Print This Article    

DALLAS COWBOYS (4-1)
at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-1)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Seattle -8.5, Total: 47

The red-hot Cowboys look to make a big statement with a road win over the Seahawks on Sunday.

Dallas has been one of the surprises of the season, recording its fourth straight victory last week (3-1 ATS) with a 20-17 overtime win over the Texans. The Seahawks have won two straight games after its lone loss of the season, and will now be faced with the difficult task of stopping current NFL rushing leader RB DeMarco Murray (670 rushing yards). The Dallas defense, on the other hand, faces its biggest test of the season against a Seahawks offense that moves the ball efficiently and rarely turns it over. The last time these teams met was in 2012, when Seattle won 27-7 at home as three-point ‘dogs. The Seahawks are 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS at home versus Dallas since 2001. Seattle is also 11-1 ATS versus teams that average 7+ passing yards per attempt over the past three years and 12-4 ATS against conference opponents in the past two years. The Cowboys, however, are 9-1 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards since 1992. Dallas could be without LBs Bruce Carter (quad) and Rolando McClain (groin), who are both questionable. Seattle is in pretty good shape, but TE Zach Miller (ankle) is out indefinitely, CB Tharold Simon (knee) is questionable and C Max Unger (foot) is probable for this matchup.

Can the Seahawks cover the hefty spread against a red-hot Cowboys team? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have been sizzling over the past three weeks, combining for a 33-13 ATS mark (72%). StatFox Scott is 83% ATS (10-2) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 65% ATS (13-7) on the season, while StatFox Dave is 79% ATS in Best Bets during these three weeks to improve to 63% ATS (15-9) on the season. StatFox Brian has gone (70% ATS) (7-3) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with an (80%) mark (12-3) for the season.

Dallas is off to an excellent start and most of that is due to the excellent running of RB DeMarco Murray (670 rush yards, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD). Murray has now rushed for 100 or more yards in every single game this season, but will have a tougher time on Sunday as he faces one of the best defensive teams in football. But the Cowboys will reportedly start lessening Murray's workload, as he leads the NFL in both carries (130) and fumbles (four) this season. That means QB Tony Romo (1,260 pass yards, 9 TD, 5 INT) will get to throw the ball more and more. He started off the season rocky with two touchdowns and three interceptions in his first two games, but since then he’s improved, throwing seven touchdowns and just two picks over the past three contests. He’ll need to make quick, high-percentage throws against a ball-hawking Seahawks’ secondary. WR Dez Bryant (32 rec, 376 yards, 4 TD) has now caught a touchdown in all four consecutive wins. He’ll be a player to watch, as he’ll likely see some time against Seattle's shutdown CB Richard Sherman. The Cowboys defense is far from elite, but they’re much improved from last year when they allowed an NFL-worst 415 total YPG. Dallas is allowing 247.8 yards per game through the air (18th in NFL) and 122.0 on the ground (20th in NFL). They will need to key in on the run in order to stop Marshawn Lynch.

Seattle is now 4-1, and QB Russell Wilson (852 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) had one of his best games as a pro in Monday's 27-17 win over the Redskins. Wilson was 18-of-24 for 201 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed 11 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. Wilson was unstoppable in that game, throwing all over the Redskins and shredding them with his feet if he couldn’t find any open receivers. He’ll now face a secondary that is prone to making mistakes, so he should be in for yet another big day. This offensive attack still relies on RB Marshawn Lynch (306 rush yards, 3 TD) though. Lynch is a workhorse and he’ll have every opportunity to run against Dallas. If he’s running effectively, it’s that much easier for Wilson to do his thing. The Seahawks defense now has to stop a powerful offense, but they should be up for the task. Seattle is allowing just 62.3 rushing yards per game (1st in NFL), so if there’s a team in the league that can stop DeMarco Murray then it would be them. They are, however, allowing 255.5 yards per game through the air (22nd in NFL), and have forced only three turnovers all season, which is a far cry from the 39 takeaways they recorded last season.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: