The fifth annual Chase, NASCAR’s postseason, begins on Sunday at New Hampshire International Speedway with the running of the Sylvania 300. The 12 Chase qualifying drivers’ slates will be nearly wiped clean in terms of points, as only a 10-point increment for each driver’s wins this season will separate him from the rest of the field. Leading the way is Kyle Busch, who has eight wins and a 30-point cushion over Carl Edwards and a 40-point edge over Jimmie Johnson. Busch is the odds on title favorite at 5-2, but Edwards and Johnson, the two-time defending champ are 3-1. No one else is being viewed as a legitimate threat. Here are the current standings heading into the first race of the 10-week Chase.
Driver Points Behind
Kyle Busch 5080 0
Carl Edwards 5050 -30
Jimmie Johnson 5040 -40
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 5010 -70
Denny Hamlin 5010 -70
Jeff Burton 5010 -70
Clint Bowyer 5010 -70
Matt Kenseth 5000 -80
Tony Stewart 5000 -80
Greg Biffle 5000 -80
Jeff Gordon 5000 -80
Kevin Harvick 5000 -80
Most of the drivers on the list are multi-Chase experienced veterans. In fact, every single one has been in at least on previous Chase for the Cup. Unlike past seasons however, this year’s field is very top heavy, as four of the 12 drivers have won just once in ’08 and five others have yet to visit Victory Lane. Four members of the field own a prior championship too, with Gordon leading the way as a 4-time champ. If you’re looking for the driver getting hot at the right time, you would have to point to Johnson, since he has won back-to-back races and has five Top 3 finishes in his last eight starts. If you recall, he was on a similar hot streak heading into the ’07 Chase and went on to win that title. In terms of other key stats for the Chase extravaganza, be sure to visit our full Statistically handicapping the ’08 Chase article.
For this week’s Sylvania 300, Hamlin and Bowyer would appear to have a good shot at gaining ground on the top spot, since Hamlin leads the series with an average NHIS finish of 6.8 and Bowyer is the defending champion of this race. On paper, Gordon and Burton would figure to fare well too, with seven wins here combined, but neither has accomplished the feat since 2000. Among the other top drivers statistically at this venue are Martin Truex (10.4 avg.), Johnson (10.5 avg, two wins), and Kenseth (10.9 avg). Johnson, the Busch brothers, Earnhardt, Jr., Harvick and Hamlin would figure to have the best shot at grabbing the checkered flag if you consider recent flat-track prowess. On the opposite end of the Chase drivers’ stats you’ll find Carl Edwards (14.1 avg, two laps led in eight starts) and Greg Biffle (19.5 avg, 26 laps led in 12 starts).
Keep in mind when handicapping this race that events at this track often come down to which teams best utilize fuel and pit strategy. In fact, Kurt Busch won the July race here with a car that he described as “not even Top 10 worthy”. Crew Chiefs claim it is better to be lucky than good at New Hampshire, so be sure to consider that when assessing props and matchups for this Sunday’s race. In general, these same chiefs like a car with good brakes and ability to accelerate out of the corners quickly. The other factor that will affect this race are the mindsets of the drivers. The Chase drivers not in contention for the win will be “point-racing”, a not-so-affectionate term for defensive driving in NASCAR, simply trying to avoid trouble. That may be easier said than done however, as reiterating, there are 33 other drivers out on the track that will be racing for wins and prize money. Among the non-Chase drivers to keep an eye on are David Ragan, who made a strong push down the stretch in his effort to make the Chase, and Kasey Kahne, a two-time race winner who failed to make the playoff roster himself.
A quick check of the odds finds the 12 Chase drivers most likely to win. Kyle Busch heads that group at 4-1, but Edwards and Johnson, both 6-1, are a close second. According to the oddsmakers, Burton, at 18-1 is the least likely title contender to win this week. Of the non-Chasers, Kahne leads the way at 18-1, followed by Kurt Busch, the July NHIS winner, at 20-1. In terms of even longer odds, one driver to keep an eye on is David Reutimann, at 100-1. Reutimann seems to be putting together at the right time, coming off a pair of Top 10 finishes.
This weekend’s action starts with qualifying on Friday at 3:15 pm et. Patrick Carpentier scored the pole here in July and Bowyer started first in his win a year ago. By normal standards though, qualifying well here has not proven vital to winning, as only eight of 27 prior winners have come from the Top 5 starting positions, and nearly as many, seven, have started 21st or worse. This week’s race is scheduled for Sunday at 2:17 PM ET on ABC. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to get you prepared for all of the racing action…"
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