NASCAR’s 10-race playoff season starts on Sunday at New Hampshire with 12 drivers vying for the 2008 Sprint Cup Championship. Kyle Busch goes into the action as the favorite at 2-1 after a regular season in which he won eight races. He will be seeking his first ever Cup Series title, but most experts figure he will be challenged heavily by Carl Edwards (5 wins in ’08) and Jimmie Johnson (4 wins). Johnson of course, is the two-time defending champ and also comes in with a 2-race winning streak.

For those looking for a nice futures wager to enhance their enjoyment of the Chase, I’ve put together a handicapping piece based upon each of the 12 drivers’ statistics in their last three starts at the various ten tracks that remain on the schedule. The three starts coincide with the beginning of the ’07 season for most tracks, the point in time where the COT was introduced in the circuit.

For each driver, I’ve taken the average finish at the track and equated it to NASCAR’s scoring system of points for finishing at the position in any given race. I also took into account how many laps that driver has led at the track. If this number exceeded 3.0, I gave the driver a 5-point bonus for theoretically leading a lap in the upcoming event. The driver who averaged the most laps led per track got the extra 5-bonus points commonly awarded by NASCAR as well. So, you’ll see from each driver detailed below that I’ve added their projected points for each Chase race to their points going in to come up with a Final Points total.

Without further ado, here is a look at each of the 12 Chase contenders along with their odds to win the title, their projected points, and my own outlook for their chances.

Greg Biffle - Odds: 15-1

Outlook: Biffle was the runner-up driver to Tony Stewart in the 2005 Chase, and he had a much better knack for winning that season. In fact, he reached Victory Lane a series-leading six times that season. In ’08, he has yet to win, making his shot as winning a title from 80-points back a longshot. Best case finish is probably 4th. Worst case 10th.

Clint Bowyer - Odds: 75-1

Outlook: Bowyer is in the Chase for the second straight season but he is the last driver in this year’s field. He finished third a year ago, but it is important to note that he was a full 346-points back at the conclusion of the season. Bowyer does own a win this season, at Richmond, but that was more fluke than anything, as he benefitted from the misfortune of Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in that May race. At this point, he is clearly a tier two drivers who is aiming for a Top 5 finish while hoping to avoid the 10th thru 12th spots.

Jeff Burton - Odds: 35-1

Outlook: Burton is an interesting longshot to consider for a Chase title, and if he can make it past Lowe’s in mid-October and still be in contention, he might have a real shot. He is one of the series’ best drivers at Atlanta and Texas statistically. On the negative side, he enjoyed his best racing back in February and March, having gone on a consistent fade since.

Kyle Busch - Odds: 5-2

Outlook: Kyle Busch is every NASCAR media expert’s darling this season for the life he has injected into the sport. He has been amazing in all three series’ in ’08. However, that fact might also be his detriment, as many have worried about him fatiguing down the stretch because of the grinding schedule he has endured. As far as his brief Cup series history is concerned, several of the Chase tracks have presented major challenges. With eight Checkered Flags and a 30-point lead at the outset though, he is still the man to beat.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Odds: 8-1

Outlook: Due in large part to his father’s success on the track, Earnhardt, Jr. has forever been overrated by oddsmakers when it comes to his success in NASCAR. This Chase berth is no different. For Junior, it is a second trip to the Chase. He seems capable of winning more than he has (just once this season), but always seems to come up short. Whether it was self-induced on-track woes, an unfortunate wreck, or mistakes on pit row, he and his team have underachieved. Don’t expect that to magically turn now that the postseason is upon us.

Carl Edwards - Odds: 3-1

Outlook: Edwards had the second most wins on the circuit this year with five and really seems to be maturing as a driver. However, without the benefit of California, Michigan, or other strong Roush tracks left on the schedule, he will have to be better than he’s ever been to give him a shot at the title. It’s possible, but he might really be a year away yet. Experience in dealing with the ups and downs of a 10-race jaunt is going to be key and Edwards hasn’t always shown the best ability to do that. Likely Top 4 finish.

Jeff Gordon - Odds: 15-1

Outlook: Gordon, the four-time champ, is a real wildcard in this year’s Chase, as historically he has posted some of his best numbers at the tracks remaining. Keep in mind, the numbers I used are from the last two seasons in most cases, not career numbers, and Gordon still stacks up very well. Consistency is going to be key for him to stay in the hunt though, especially since he’s 80-points back going in. He also hasn’t won a race yet. Reaching Victory Lane in the first two or three races could really boost his chances.

Denny Hamlin - Odds: 15-1

Outlook: Hamlin has been a frustrated driver at many times this season, often playing the third wheel on his own team to Busch and Stewart. This is his third year in NASCAR’s Cup Series and third time in the Chase. Could the third time be the Charm? Well, he finished 3rd in ’06 and 12th a year ago, so the trending pattern would say no. Hamlin has been one of the Top Chase drivers at New Hampshire though, and a fast start for anyone stuck in 4th through 12th is going to be huge. More than likely, he’ll be a mid-pack finisher at the end.
 

Kevin Harvick - Odds: 35-1

Outlook: Harvick has come on strong to finish the regular season, but the fact remains that this Chase fixture has not won a race this season and won’t be taking home any titles without a trip to Victory Lane in the Chase. His numbers over the last two seasons aren’t particularly good at any of the Chase locations either. In the 2006 playoffs, Harvick finished 4th. Last year he sunk to 10th. He claims his 2008 goal is the title, but he is not an elite driver at this point and the 80-point deficit figures to be too much to make up.

Jimmie Johnson - Odds: 3-1

Outlook: Johnson is the two-time defending series champ. He seems to be hitting stride just in time, as he did a year ago when at one point he won four straight races. This year he goes into the Chase with two straight. Johnson also boasts prolific numbers at six of the Chase tracks, giving him a very good chance for multiple wins the rest of the way. No other driver can really proclaim that. Ironically, one of his worst tracks in recent racing has been Lowe’s, and anyone who counts him out there is making a mistake. At 3-1, he has a great shot at a third straight title.
 

Matt Kenseth - Odds: 20-1

Outlook: Speaking of the value of experience, former Cup Champion (’02) Matt Kenseth is making his 5th straight Chase appearance. His worst finish has been 8th. His best: a runner up effort in 2006. He could be a threat at 20-1 odds for ’08, as he was all but forgotten back in June in 20th place in the standings. As usual though, after becoming more familiar with his new Crew Chief, he rallied the troops for a strong finish. Don’t look past the #17 when considering who might win it all.

Tony Stewart - Odds: 15-1

Outlook: Stewart is a ticking time bomb heading into the Chase. While having not been much of a factor for most of the season, he put together a strong run at Richmond in contending for the win. After coming up short, he lambasted his teammates for blowing another excellent chance to reach Victory Lane. There seems to be some dissension in the ranks of the Home Depot pits now. As a result, this former 2-time series champ could either rally for a big Chase effort or completely crash and burn. Too risky for my blood though, especially with him leaving for his own race team following the season finale.

The Final 2008 Chase Standings would then look like this:

Pos., Driver, Points
1. Jimmie Johnson - 6472
2. Jeff Gordon - 6400
3. Carl Edwards - 6304
4. Matt Kenseth - 6300
5. Jeff Burton - 6286
6. Denny Hamlin - 6260
7. Kyle Busch - 6251
8. Clint Bowyer - 6226
9. Tony Stewart - 6218
10. Greg Biffle - 6190
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - 6149
12. Kevin Harvick – 6127

With a final projected point margin of 72 points, it would seem then that Jimmie Johnson might win the championship fairly comfortably. Plus, as the two-time defending champion, at 3-1 odds, he would present decent betting value. The wildcard here has to be four-time champion Jeff Gordon, who, at 15-1 is projected as the runner-up finisher. It just so happens that the Chase schedule showcases some of the tracks he has done best at over the last couple of seasons.

On the opposite end, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. seems to be getting his usual show of over-support from oddsmakers. At 8-1, there are drivers with much better value to back. In fact, I would just assume put my money behind Clint Bowyer at 75-1. Both of those drivers’ chances of winning a title are remote, but at least Bowyer comes with the 75-1 tag.

Lastly, the two other heavy favorites, Kyle Busch & Carl Edwards, will have to surpass their performance on the Chase tracks to realize their title dreams. The nice thing for both drivers is that they will start off the 10-race jaunt with a bit of a lead thanks to their regular season wins.

Whoever ends up holding the hardware, it should be an exciting Chase with a great mix of drivers and blend of tracks.