2008 PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH
East Division
1.Georgia
2.Florida
3.Tennessee
4.South Carolina
5.Kentucky
6.Vanderbilt

West Division
1.LSU
2.Alabama
3.Auburn
4.Arkansas
5.Mississippi State
6.Ole Miss

EAST DIVISION

FLORIDA GATORS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 9-4 (8-4 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Urban Meyer, 4th year
STADIUM: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 7  DEFENSE - 8
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 52  LOST: 11

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 43.83 (13th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/30  -  HAWAII
9/6  -  MIAMI
9/20  -  at Tennessee
9/27  -  OLE MISS
10/4  -  at Arkansas
10/11  -  LSU
10/25  -  KENTUCKY
11/1  -  vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)
11/8  -  at Vanderbilt
11/15  -  S CAROLINA
11/22  -  THE CITADEL
11/29  -  at Florida St

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 31-8 (79%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 20-16 (56%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 12-5 (71%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 8-11 (42%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 11-13 (46%)
Non-Conference ATS: 3-1, 9-3 (75%)
as Favorite ATS: 7-4, 15-16 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-0, 5-0 (100%)
Over-Under: 9-3, 18-19 (49%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +17.0 (9th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +20.3 (6th of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 56 (8th of 119)
Turnover Differential: +0.38 (32nd of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

The Gator Chomp didn’t necessarily leave, but it came back on the scene with an even bigger bite for 2008 and beyond. Florida may not have had the opportunity to defend its national championship, but there’s a good chance the Gators can help keep the Bowl Championship Series crown within the Southeastern Conference for a third consecutive year, if not longer. An offense that ranked No. 3 nationally in scoring (42.5 points per game), stands to be even more potent because of yet another influx of talented freshmen and seven returning starters.

OFFENSE

The offensive headliner is clearly quarterback Tim Tebow, the first sophomore to ever win the Heisman Trophy and for good reason. He put up video game numbers (3,286 yards passing, 895 yards rushing) and became the first player in Division I-A history to throw and run for more than 20 touchdowns in a season (32 passing, 23 rushing). And it was just his first season as a starter. Now he’ll be working with a deeper crew of running backs highlighted by USC transfer Emmanuel Moody, sophomore freshman Chris Rainey and last season’s No. 1 runner, senior Kestahn Moore (580 yards, six touchdowns). The big question remains whether or not one of the runners will be able to provide consistency to an attack that had a quarterback and wide receiver (junior Percy Harvin) each average 20 more yards per game than any back. Harvin (59 catches, 858 yards) doesn’t put up the eye-opening numbers like Tebow, but he’s one of the more dangerous threats in the entire nation. He became the first player in school history with 100-yard rushing And the playmakers that operate so well in open space will work with an offensive line that returns three starters.

DEFENSE

Mention the name Florida Gators, and talk instantly centers around scoring points. But what about the players that prevent them on the other side of the ball?  As much as Tebow had his hands on the ball, junior linebacker Brandon Spikes may have had it in his sights even more. The No. 2 tackler in the SEC (131 stops), Spikes spread the Gator chomp behind the line of scrimmage with 16.5 tackles for loss. Junior Dustin Doe, the No. 2 tackler (85) is back alongside Spikes. But as scary as Spikes’ one-man show may have looked, it’s the entire defensive line that’s sure to give opposing coaches nightmares in 2008. Injuries forced Meyer to shuttle six freshmen into the rotation at different points during the year, and now that young group has experience to back up its talent. Junior defensive end Jermaine Cunningham set a career-best with 17 tackles in the loss to LSU and finished the year with 12 stops behind the line of scrimmage and 6.5 sacks. Junior cornerback Wondy Pierre-Lewis, sophomore cornerback Joe Haden and sophomore free safety Major Wright anchor a secondary whose overall yardage allowed, an SEC-worst 258.5 through the air per game, can be largely attributed to teams playing catch-up after the first quarter.

SPECIAL TEAMS

No matter who wins the competition at kicker, there will be plenty of opportunities and a tough act to follow after Joe Ijjas set a program record with 72 extra points. Sophomore Brandon James, another in a long line of record setters, wiped out the old program mark for kick-return yardage and gets his job responsibilities back.

PREDICTION

Not many teams will be able to compete with the Gators on a regular basis, and Florida’s biggest competition will come from within the SEC. The two toughest games (Georgia and LSU) are both at The Swamp, giving the Gators a clear shot to return to the BCS title game. Save some time and pencil them in right now.

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GEORGIA BULLDOGS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 11-2 (8-4 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Mark Richt, 8th year
STADIUM: Sanford Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 7  DEFENSE - 9
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 45  LOST: 22

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 44.50 (9th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/30  -  GA SOUTHERN
9/6  -  C MICHIGAN
9/13  -  at S Carolina
9/20  -  at Arizona St
9/27  -  ALABAMA
10/11  -  TENNESSEE
10/18  -  VANDERBILT
10/25  -  at LSU
11/1  -  vs. Florida (Jacksonville)
11/8  -  at Kentucky
11/15  -  at Auburn
11/29  -  GEORGIA TECH

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 11-2, 30-9 (77%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 19-17 (53%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 7-10 (41%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-2, 12-7 (63%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 12-13 (48%)
Non-Conference ATS: 3-1, 7-4 (64%)
as Favorite ATS: 6-4, 12-15 (44%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-0, 7-2 (78%)
Over-Under: 5-6, 17-18 (49%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +12.5 (17th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +15.2 (11th of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 57 (6th of 119)
Turnover Differential: +0.69 (18th of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

Nosed out of the BCS National Title Game by Ohio State last January, Georgia took its frustrations out on Hawaii, hammering the Warriors, 41-10, in the Sugar Bowl. Consider the demolition on national television a warning to the rest of the Southeastern Conference and college football. The offense exploded during a season-ending seven-game winning streak, vaulting Georgia to No. 2 in the final Associated Press Poll. The talk in 2008 now centers on the national title.

OFFENSE

Sophomore tailback Knowshon Moreno (1,334 yards, 14 touchdowns) is the clear-cut star in the huddle, leapfrogging junior quarterback Matthew Stafford, who put together a solid, if not spectacular second season as a starter (2,523 yards passing, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) and boasts an 18-4 career record. The problem is, there’s only one football, and after watching Moreno average 5.4 yards per carry and rack up six 100-yard efforts, Stafford has become more of a game manager than the triggerman of a high-octane attack. Despite splitting time with Thomas Brown, Moreno still managed to finish fourth all-time in the SEC in rushing yards for a freshman behind Herschel Walker, Jamal Lewis and Emmitt Smith. Running behind a line that included three freshmen thrown into the fire didn’t seem to burn Moreno, either. Left tackle Trinton Sturdivant and right guard Clint Boling each earned 2007 Freshman All-America honors, while sophomore left guard Chris Davis was a Freshman All-American honorable mention. The accolades are many and most likely scary for opposing defenses, because this offensive line is built for the long haul. Not a single wide receiver ranked among the SEC’s top pass catchers, and the top returnee, senior Mohammed Massaquoi, grabbed just 32, including 15 in the last three games. A total of 17 Bulldogs caught a pass last season, and the lack of a go-to player, coupled with Richt’s recent use of freshmen, suggests recruit A.J. Green could be in for a big debut. The 6-4, 190-pounder is a gamebreaker in every sense. Tripp Chandler (21 catches, 283 yards) is the latest in a line of solid tight ends for the Bulldogs.

DEFENSE

Moreno and the offense received most of the ink for the run up the national polls after averaging 35.2 points per game, but nine returning starters make the stop unit equally dangerous. Gone is Sugar Bowl MVP Marcus Howard, but it’ll be hard for opposing running backs to ignore defensive tackles Geno Atkins (41 tackles, 14.5 for loss, 7.5 sacks) and Jeff Owens, both All-SEC first-team selections. As a whole, Georgia led the SEC with 42 sacks, finished second in touchdowns allowed (28) and third in total defense (323.2 yards per game). So the expectations are high for a program that has finished in the top 20 nationally in scoring defense seven years running. Junior Roderick Battle (2.5 sacks) and senior Jeremy Lomax (4.5) aren’t necessarily going to replace Howard’s SEC-best 10.5 sacks, but they do lead a deep group of ends that figures to be a major area of strength. Senior linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, the team’s top tackler (93) is back along with yet another Freshman All-American, Rennie Curran. All but one starter returns to a Bulldogs’ secondary that made Hawaii’s offense look every bit like a trendy system. If anything, it proved that the speed of the SEC can hang with any quarterback and receiving corps under any circumstances. Junior cornerbacks Asher Allen and Prince Miller highlight the defensive backfield.

SPECIAL TEAMS

For all of the returning talent, Georgia has several large holes to fill on special teams. The program’s all-time leader in punt returns (Thomas Flowers) and a three-year starting kicker (Brandon Coutu) are being replaced by a collection of players.

PREDICTION

Make no mistake, 2008 comes down to one game for Georgia, so circle the date and opponent: Oct. 25 at LSU. Win and the talk of a potential national title can heat up. Simply getting to Baton Rouge undefeated will be an undertaking, however, as the Bulldogs first travel to South Carolina and host Alabama and Tennessee.

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KENTUCKY WILDCATS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 8-5 (6-5 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Rich Brooks, 6th year
STADIUM: Commonwealth Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 5  DEFENSE - 8
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 57  LOST: 16

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 40.75 (37th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/31  -  at Louisville
9/6  -  NORFOLK ST
9/13  -  MIDDLE TENN ST
9/27  -  W KENTUCKY
10/4  -  at Alabama
10/11  -  S CAROLINA
10/18  -  ARKANSAS
10/25  -  at Florida
11/1  -  at Mississippi St
11/8  -  GEORGIA
11/15  -  VANDERBILT
11/29  -  at Tennessee

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 19-18 (51%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 19-14 (58%)
at Home ATS: 4-3, 11-7 (61%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-2, 8-7 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 14-10 (58%)
Non-Conference ATS: 3-0, 5-4 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-2, 5-4 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-3, 14-10 (58%)
Over-Under: 7-5, 18-16 (53%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +6.9 (34th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +8.4 (29th of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 43 (44th of 119)
Turnover Differential: -0.08 (64th of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

Head coach Rich Brooks has all but erased the memories of his 9-25 start through three seasons at Kentucky after back-to-back 8-5 marks and a pair of Music City Bowl appearances. Now, Wildcats fans and the rest of the Southeastern Conference will get a feel for Brooks’ recruiting prowess as numerous positional strongholds were released due to graduation. The offense, specifically, must replace several of the top performers in the program’s history, notably quarterback Andre’ Woodson and wide receiver Keenan Burton.

OFFENSE

Picking up the heavy lifting from Woodson isn’t going to be an easy task, because he did the work of two players, throwing for 3,709 yards and 40 touchdowns. A battle between two of his backups, junior Curtis Pulley and sophomore Mike Hartline (six career pass attempts), will continue through the summer. Pulley’s the more proven of the duo and redshirted last year after holding the clipboard the two previous seasons. Named the Scout Team’s Offensive MVP in 2007, Pulley has 149 career rushing yards, and could be a major weapon behind an experienced offensive line that welcomes back three starters. Senior left tackle Garry Williams (6-3, 300), junior left guard Zipp Duncan (6-5, 285) and junior right tackle Justin Jeffries (6-6, 310) all have ample size to open holes for what could be a strong running attack. The backfield is a case of good news In Burton, Steven Johnson and Jacob Tamme, the Wildcats lose a pair of 60-catch receivers, and a tight end who grabbed 56 balls. The trio totaled 28 receiving scores. There’s clearly some work to be done on the depth chart even with Dicky Lyons (56 catches, 655 yards, seven touchdowns) returning. Junior DeMorio Ford has 20 career catches to his name.

DEFENSE

The defense had its moments, a scant few, in 2007, but a repeat of the open floodgates would send Kentucky straight to the bottom of the SEC. With some major uncertainties on the offense, the stop unit needs to carry its weight, and allowing 29.6 points per game isn’t going to cut it. The defense did slice a significant chunk of yardage off its per-game average over the last two years (453.4-to-397.2), but that didn’t stop six opponents from topping the 30-point plateau. Eight starters are back in all, including three on the line (junior tackle Corey Peters, senior tackle Myron Pryor and junior end Jeremy Jarmon), two senior linebackers (Johnny Williams and Braxton Kelley), two junior cornerbacks (Paul Warford and Trevard Lindley) and senior free safety Marcus McClinton. The biggest area of strength is the secondary, where Warford and Lindley have taken man coverage to a different level. The duo combined for 107 tackles, 20 pass breakups and five interceptions.  Jarmon’s developing into an elite pass rusher (13.5 tackles for loss, nine sacks), while junior linebacker Micah Johnson (58 tackles, five pass breakups) will have a big hand in replacing the workload spread out with the loss of the SEC’s No. 1 tackler (Wesley Woodyard).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Little and Burton handled the majority of the work on the return teams, yet another area undergoing a major change. Both slots are up for grabs and not much in the way of experience exists. Redshirt freshman Ryan Tydlack could give the boot to both junior kicker Lones Selber (16-for-25 on field goals) and senior punter Tim Masthay (39.8 yards per punt).

PREDICTION

Hopefully, the Wildcats enjoyed the ride of consecutive winning seasons while it lasted. Brooks’ magic dust won’t be able to carry them to another bowl. In fact, finishing above the break-even mark is a tall order. The schedule gets scary around Halloween with Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia and Tennessee all on tap in the second half.

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OFFENSE

Nothing jumps off the stat pages about the Bulldogs, and therein lies the biggest issue moving forward. The team returns a 1,000-yard runner in junior Anthony Dixon, but he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and 82 yards per game. He’ll remain the focal point of the running attack, especially at the goal line, where he used his 6-1, 240-pound frame to score 14 touchdowns. Lacking a true breakaway threat, it’s possible the door will open for redshirt freshman Robert Elliott, a star from the 2007 recruiting class. Aside from a 421-yard, four-touchdown explosion in the loss to Arkansas, sophomore quarterback Wesley Carroll was bland. In fact, he topped 200 yards passing just twice in nine starts and threw nearly half of his nine touchdowns against the Razorbacks. But after assuming the reins as a true freshman, Carroll demonstrated a veteran presence any coach would welcome, finishing 6-3 in the starter’s role. Carroll and the offense will be playing behind a veteran line returning four starters. He will be throwing to a receiving unit that lacks star power, but does spread the love of leather. Eight different players caught at least 10 passes and none more than senior Jamayel Smith’s 33 receptions for 510 yards and three touchdowns. Senior Co-Eric Riley (eight catches, 68 yards) didn’t get an opportunity to make a big splash in his first year after transferring, but the loss of Tony Burks opens the door in 2008.

DEFENSE

Pour over any of the statistics, and the defense is just as vanilla as the offense. It was outscored by opponents (301-to-279) and allowed 156.8 yards rushing per game. But Mississippi State did limit eight teams to fewer than 17 points, and guess what? It won them all. The experience factor of eight returning starters alone should make for better performance. Senior defensive tackle Jessie Bowman (6-1, 305) and junior Kyle Love (6-1, 320) return to the starting lineup, but there’s some solid depth behind them in junior Quinton Wesley (6-4, 315) and sophomores Rodney Prince (6-3, 252) and LaMarcus Williams (6-1, 290). At defensive end, the team could use a boost, or make that a push upfield, as no player had more than eight sacks. Senior Cortez McCraney moves down the line to end, where he and senior Tim Bailey try to replace two starters who combined for 25 quarterback hurries, 22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks. The team’s top two tacklers, senior linebackers Jamar Chaney (89) and Dominic Douglas (78), line up next to sophomore K.J. Wright, a potential star-in-the-making. If any player stands out from the rest, it’s senior free safety Derek Pegues. The All-SEC selection picked off five passes and stopped 50 plays. He has three career interception returns for touchdowns and has all three of his running mates in the defensive backfield returning. Senior strong safety Keith Fitzhugh, senior cornerback Jasper O’Quinn and junior cornerback Marcus Washington give Mississippi State one of the more experienced secondaries in the nation.

Pegues is locked into the top spot on both return units and is no stranger to the end zone with two career returns for touchdowns. Seniors Adam Carlson and Blake McAdams are back as the kicker and punter, respectively.

S CAROLINA GAMECOCKS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 6-6 (5-5 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Steve Spurrier, 4th year
STADIUM: Williams-Brice Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 6  DEFENSE - 10
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 54  LOST: 18

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 43.17 (16th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/28  -  NC STATE
9/4  -  at Vanderbilt
9/13  -  GEORGIA
9/20  -  WOFFORD
9/27  -  UAB
10/4  -  at Ole Miss
10/11  -  at Kentucky
10/18  -  LSU
11/1  -  TENNESSEE
11/8  -  ARKANSAS
11/15  -  at Florida
11/29  -  at Clemson

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 6-6, 21-16 (57%)
Overall ATS: 5-5, 20-13 (61%)
at Home ATS: 3-3, 9-9 (50%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-2, 11-4 (73%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 14-8 (64%)
Non-Conference ATS: 1-2, 6-5 (55%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-3, 10-5 (67%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 10-8 (56%)
Over-Under: 4-7, 19-16 (54%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +2.6 (55th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.5 (42nd of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 46 (27th of 119)
Turnover Differential: -0.58 (101st of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

Ever hear of the wolf in sheep’s clothing? The 2007 Gamecocks were the exact opposite, more like a sheep in wolf’s clothing. A 6-1 start, which included victories over Louisiana-Lafayette and South Carolina State, quickly dissolved with a season-ending five-game losing streak. After looking like the big-bad wolf through mid-October, injuries and a tough string of games with Top 25 teams blew the Gamecocks right out of the bowl picture. But all is not lost, and there won’t be much rebuilding, because 16 starters return, including linebacker Jasper Brinkley, a medical redshirt, who played in just four games last season.

OFFENSE

Head coach Steve Spurrier is considered to be every young quarterback’s dream coach. During his storied tenure with now-rival Florida, he churned out top collegiate signal-callers like an assembly line. Unfortunately, it has been anything but a smooth ride in three years at South Carolina.  Sophomore Chris Smelley finished 4-2 as a starter with an upset of then No. 8-ranked Kentucky. It’s obvious the talent is there, but Spurrier doesn’t seem convinced to the point he’ll stop the Gamecocks carousel. Junior Tommy Beecher and redshirt freshman Stephen Garcia are also in the mix, and don’t think Spurrier will be afraid to go with a redshirt, either. Smelley was a redshirt freshman in last year’s opener. Senior tailback Mike Davis (114 carries, 518 yards), the team leader in rushing in 2005, finally gets another crack at the top role. After sitting behind Cory Boyd, he’s ahead of sophomore Brian Maddox on the depth chart, who didn’t have a single carry after the third game of 2007. Despite playing alongside three different quarterbacks, McKinley still set a program-record with 77 catches, just missing the 1,000-yard mark (968) and scoring 10 touchdowns. There isn’t much immediate depth behind McKinley, as senior Larry Freeman and juniors Freddie Brown and Moe Brown combined for just 42 catches. The door could be open for sophomore Dion Lecorn, who made his biggest splash against Arkansas with eight catches for 109 yards.

DEFENSE

What can be said about a defense that finished the year allowing an average of 33.2 points during a five-game skid? OK, want some good news? Ten starters are back. In fairness to the unit, Brinkley, an All-America candidate, went down with a knee injury in the fourth game, and opponents found a weak spot—-the run defense—-and bullied the Gamecocks around. South Carolina finished 110th in the nation against the run (209.3 yards per game). New defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson will benefit from the return of two additional players back from medical redshirts—-end Jordin Lindsey and tackle Nathan Pepper--giving the line some depth. Junior Eric Norwood is a standout on the end, registering 10.5 tackles for loss, but it’s the tackle position that desperately needs improvement.  Getting Brinkley back is a huge emotional boost, but the senior is also a wrecking machine on the field. He racked up 107 tackles (14.5 for loss), five quarterback sacks and four pass breakups in 2006. The secondary returns the most experience and statistically ranks as the best unit on the defense, ranking fourth in the nation (168.7 yards per game). But it’s hard to give full credit, because there was little reason to throw when running was so easy.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Ray Rychelski has been brought aboard to breathe some life into a special teams unit that currently features one of the nation’s most reliable kickers, Ryan Succop. The senior has converted 29 of 37 field-goal attempts the last two years and also pulls double duty as the punter, where he was named an All-SEC second-team selection.

PREDICTION

Someone needs to take hold of the offense and fast. Without a consistent leader under center, the Gamecocks are going to be in some trouble. Another year of drawing the short straw to determine the starter will keep the rest of the offense from running smoothly, and keep the Gamecocks in the role of the sheep rather than the wolf.

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TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 10-4 (8-4 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Phil Fullmer, 17th year
STADIUM: Neyland Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 8  DEFENSE - 6
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 47  LOST: 22

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 42.33 (23rd toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
9/1  -  at UCLA
9/13  -  UAB
9/20  -  FLORIDA
9/27  -  at Auburn
10/4  -  N ILLINOIS
10/11  -  at Georgia
10/18  -  MISSISSIPPI ST
10/25  -  ALABAMA
11/1  -  at S Carolina
11/8  -  WYOMING
11/22  -  at Vanderbilt
11/29  -  KENTUCKY

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 10-4, 24-14 (63%)
Overall ATS: 8-4, 18-17 (51%)
at Home ATS: 5-1, 8-10 (44%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-3, 10-7 (59%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-3, 11-11 (50%)
Non-Conference ATS: 4-1, 7-6 (54%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-2, 11-12 (48%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-2, 7-5 (58%)
Over-Under: 8-6, 16-21 (43%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +5.2 (45th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +10.1 (22nd of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 49 (18th of 119)
Turnover Differential: +0.50 (27th of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

The winds of change blew through Knoxville in more ways than one during the offseason, leaving the Volunteers in quite a different position than the team that just claimed the Southeastern Conference East Division and nearly knocked off LSU for the league title.  The offensive coaching staff was hit the hardest and at possibly the worst time, as David Cutcliffe is gone just as Tennessee ushers in a new starting quarterback.

OFFENSE

First the good news: Eight starters return, including senior tailback Arian Foster (1,193 yards, 12 touchdowns) and senior wide receiver Lucas Taylor (73 catches, 1,000 yards, five touchdowns). Foster has developed into one of the SEC’s top backs, and there’s some experienced depth behind him in junior Montario Hardesty and big-play sophomore Lennon Creer.  Running behind an offensive line with four veteran starters can only mean one thing—-a transition from the big-play passing offense with Erik Ainge at the helm. Subtract Ainge, and the Vols wave goodbye to more than 3,500 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and most importantly, a quarterback that completes throws at a high percentage without falling victim to many miscues. He threw just 10 interceptions in 519 attempts. The man under the spotlight becomes 6-4, 220-pound junior Jonathan Crompton, who did play in seven games but saw minimal work once in the huddle, completing 7 of 12 passes for 97 yards. Crompton was thrown into the lineup for seven starts as a freshman, so he’s not a complete newbie…but then again, he’s still no Ainge. In Taylor, junior Austin Rogers (56 catches, 624 yards, four touchdowns), and senior Josh Briscoe (56, 557, 6), the offense does have a full complement of playmakers split wide, and Foster’s no slouch, either. He grabbed 39 balls for 340 yards and could easily see his workload increase on short dumpoffs until Crompton is completely comfortable.

DEFENSE

If the loss of Ainge took out the Vols heart, then the loss of linebacker Jerod Mayo rips out the soul and a whole lot more. A tackling machine who led the SEC with 140 stops (8.5 for loss), Mayo opted to hit the pros one year early. Coupled with the graduation of Ryan Karl (82 stops), Tennessee has some big holes to fill, considering the unit was 11th in the conference in total defense (403.3 yards per game) with the hard-hitting duo. Rico McCoy is the lone holdover and finished second on the team with 106 stops. And did we mention the two starting ends that also skipped town? There’s clearly some work to be done, and in a conference rife with athletic playmakers, it’s not exactly an area most coaches want to be unsettled. So what exactly looks to be a strong suit? Perhaps the secondary, which returns three starters, including senior cornerback DeAngelo Willingham (38 tackles) and sophomore cornerback Brent Vinson (eight pass breakups). The big star is sophomore strong safety Eric Berry (86 tackles), who’s on most short lists for best underclass defender in the nation. He picked off five balls and deflected nine passes. The senior defensive tackle tandem of 310-pound Dan Williams and 290-pound Demonte’ Bolden returns, but the Vols ranked ninth in the SEC in run defense, allowing a hefty 164.6 yards per game and 15 touchdowns.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Senior punter Brian Colquitt delivers the goods, but the team won’t have his services until Oct. 11 due to a five-game suspension. Rock solid kicker Daniel Lincoln, only a sophomore, looked poised beyond his years, converting all but one of his 50 extra points and 21 of 28 field-goal attempts.

PREDICTION

Crompton is not Ainge, but offense is the least of Tennessee’s problems. The big issue is whether the Vols can make up for the loss of a huge anchor in the middle of their defense (Mayo) and somehow improve their overall performance at the same time. Odds are it won’t happen. No East Division crown this year, but a bowl game is a lock.

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VANDERBILT COMMODORES

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 5-7 (5-6 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Bobby Johnson, 7th year
STADIUM: Vanderbilt Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 3  DEFENSE - 7
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 48  LOST: 17

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 43.75 (14th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/28  -  at Miami Ohio
9/4  -  S CAROLINA
9/13  -  RICE
9/20  -  at Ole Miss
10/4  -  AUBURN
10/11  -  at Mississippi St
10/18  -  at Georgia
10/25  -  DUKE
11/8  -  FLORIDA
11/15  -  at Kentucky
11/22  -  TENNESSEE
11/29  -  at Wake Forest

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 5-7, 14-21 (40%)
Overall ATS: 5-6, 16-15 (52%)
at Home ATS: 3-4, 6-11 (35%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-2, 10-4 (71%)
vs Conference ATS: 4-4, 12-11 (52%)
Non-Conference ATS: 1-2, 4-4 (50%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-2, 4-6 (40%)
as Underdog ATS: 3-4, 12-9 (57%)
Over-Under: 2-9, 15-17 (47%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: -0.9 (66th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.4 (65th of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 38 (58th of 119)
Turnover Differential: -0.17 (73rd of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

Vanderbilt finally made some headway in the Southeastern Conference, but a 5-3 start quickly deteriorated into a 5-7 final mark. Moving forward, the outlook isn’t pretty as just three starters return on offense, and one of them-—junior quarterback Mackenzi Adams--is fighting to keep his job. The Commodores did defeat nationally ranked South Carolina, hung tough with Kentucky and nearly knocked off Tennessee at Rocky Top, but a repeat of those scenarios are now a pipe dream.

OFFENSE

Adams stepped in halfway through the year and was the quarterback of record in the win over South Carolina and close losses to the Wildcats and Volunteers. He didn’t do much from a statistical standpoint (1,043 yards, nine touchdowns, six interceptions) and now finds 2007’s initial starter, senior Chris Nickson, breathing down his neck. Nickson was a breath of fresh air in 2006, throwing for more than 2,000 yards and running for 694, but a shoulder injury and inconsistency took the wind out of his sails and opened the door for Adams. The biggest position battle will determine the course for Vanderbilt because little experience returns anywhere else. The biggest void is on the line, where want ads have been placed for all five starting positions. After spring practice, the junior class has stepped in and has the inside track for each slot. The problem lies in the second and third wave of linemen, where redshirt freshmen and a few sophomores are going to be pressed into immediate action. Senior Jeff Jennings (16 career touchdowns) and junior Jared Hawkins (267 yards rushing) are fighting for the starting gig in the backfield. For those who like sleepers, keep an eye on sophomore Kennard Reeves, a big-play runner just waiting for his opportunity. The loss of Earl Bennett to the NFL a year early is a big hit, but at least the Commodores return substantial depth and experience. The issue is finding someone to get the ball to seniors George Smith (32 catches, 397 yards, three touchdowns) and Sean Walker (20, 270, 3). Juniors Alex Washington and Justin Wheeler are also veterans with considerable game experience.

DEFENSE

As much as the offense needs to find out about itself, the defense does have an identity. Seven returning starters, including three of the top five tacklers, boost a unit that was already solid across the board. By the time the smoke cleared, the secondary, which returns starting cornerbacks (juniors D.J. Moore and Myron Lewis) and safeties (senior Reshard Langford and junior Ryan Hamilton), finished fifth against the pass. Moore can do it all, whether the ball’s in the air or on the ground. His 83 tackles were second-best on the team, and he also added 10 pass breakups and a team-high six interceptions. Hamilton and Langford were equally versatile, combining for 133 tackles, 13 pass breakups and eight stops behind the line of scrimmage. The only returning starter at linebacker, junior Brandon Bryant, didn’t finish the season due to injury and has to fight sophomore Nathan Battle for the top gig. Vanderbilt’s defense had an opportunity to turn some heads, but the loss of several veterans along the line squash that notion. Some may be surprised to learn the Commodores ranked third in the SEC with 30 sacks. They are looking to replace more than half with newcomers. Junior ends Broderick Stewart (six sacks) and Steven Stone (4) are expected to pick up some of the slack.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Junior punter Brett Upson and senior kicker Bryan Hahnfeldt are three-year starters cemented in the lineup. The real standout is Moore, one of the top kick-return men in the SEC. He had six runbacks of at least 40 yards and averaged 25.7 yards per return.

PREDICTION

The Commodores were on the verge of becoming more than an SEC cellar-dwellar a few years ago. But those strides have now been cut short. Just as the program peeked its head above the ground, graduation and early entries to the NFL have pulled them right back down into the hole. Check back in a year when the newcomers have settled in.

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WEST DIVISION

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 7-6 (3-8 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Nick Saban, 2nd year
STADIUM: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 9  DEFENSE - 6
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 49  LOST: 21

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 42.17 (24th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/30  -  vs. Clemson (Atlanta)
9/6  -  TULANE
9/13  -  W KENTUCKY
9/20  -  at Arkansas
9/27  -  at Georgia
10/4  -  KENTUCKY
10/18  -  OLE MISS
10/25  -  at Tennessee
11/1  -  ARKANSAS ST
11/8  -  at LSU
11/15  -  MISSISSIPPI ST
11/29  -  AUBURN

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 7-6, 23-15 (61%)
Overall ATS: 3-8, 12-22 (35%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 4-15 (21%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-4, 8-7 (53%)
vs Conference ATS: 2-5, 8-13 (38%)
Non-Conference ATS: 1-3, 4-9 (31%)
as Favorite ATS: 2-6, 6-17 (26%)
as Underdog ATS: 1-2, 6-5 (55%)
Over-Under: 6-6, 17-20 (46%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +5.1 (46th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +5.5 (41st of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 45 (36th of 119)
Turnover Differential: +0.31 (34th of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

When Nick Saban took over Alabama, the mission was to get the program on the right track in the Southeastern Conference. It didn’t take long to accomplish the feat, as the Crimson Tide won the Independence Bowl and played competitively in every game (all six losses were by a touchdown or less). Now, Saban gets to work in some of the players from his own recruiting class to bolster the lineup.

OFFENSE

The bread and butter of the 2008 Crimson Tide is going to be offense. Senior quarterback John Parker Wilson continues to develop into the type of big-time player most expected, even with some hiccups down the stretch in 2007. For the first time in his tenure, he stands to have a major weapon split wide in freshman Julio Jones.  Ranked as the No. 1 overall player in the country by Sports Illustrated While Wilson gets to know his new playmakers, the ground attack and offensive line return nearly intact. Sophomore tailback Terry Grant turned in a solid first season, finishing eighth in the SEC in rushing (891 yards) and scored eight times. Junior Glenn Coffee added 545 rushing yards and joins Grant in running behind an offensive line that returns four starters, including junior left tackle Andre Smith, an All-SEC first-team standout.

DEFENSE

Solid all the way around, Alabama’s defense should have few problems filling in the gaps despite the loss of five starters. Of course, no single player is going to make up the 27 tackles for loss Wallace Gilbert posted, but it’s not as if the returning players are dead weight. Junior end Brandon Deaderick and junior nose guard Lorenzo Washington will have to step into the limelight, but the Tide has depth up front to make up for Gilbert’s production. Sophomore nose guard Josh Chapman, a legitimate 300-pounder with room to grow, missed all but the first three games due to injury. Senior Bobby Greenwood started the first five games before the injury bug hit him and has three years of experience under his belt, and sophomore Luther Davis, yet another high-ranking former prep star, can expect increased snaps. Based on size alone, incoming freshman Terrence Cody should get a long look. At 6-5, 380 pounds, he may be the biggest player in the nation. The linebacking unit features senior Ezekial Knight (64 tackles, 11 for loss) on the strong side and sophomore Rolando McClain (75, 5), a first-team SEC All-Freshman selection, in the middle. It’s clear Saban was comfortable using his first-year players and it’s a decision that’s already paying off in the experience department. Senior safety Rashad Johnson, an All-SEC first-team selection, saved his best games for the end, totaling 22 tackles in wins over Houston and Colorado. He paced the Tide with 94 tackles and six interceptions, leading a secondary that finished third in the SEC with 19 picks. Sophomore cornerback Kareem Jackson (66 tackles, six pass breakups) was an instant success as a starter and added three interceptions.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Junior kicker Leigh Tiffin finished seventh in the nation averaging 1.92 field goals per game (25-for-34) and booted 10 of more than 40 yards. Bad kickers are a dime a dozen, and the importance of a player like Tiffin can’t be understated considering the number of close games Alabama seems to play.

PREDICTION

Alabama is a rare breed in that it has a near perfect blend of veterans and high-impact newcomers making a run at the conference title a very real possibility. It wouldn’t have taken many breaks for Saban’s team to have been among the elite in the SEC last season, and the Tide will continue moving in the right direction.

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ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 8-5 (7-5 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Bobby Petrino, 1st year
STADIUM: Razorback Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 5  DEFENSE - 5
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 44  LOST: 25

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 44.17 (10th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/30  -  W ILLINOIS
9/6  -  LA MONROE
9/13  -  at Texas
9/20  -  ALABAMA
10/4  -  FLORIDA
10/11  -  at Auburn
10/18  -  at Kentucky
10/25  -  OLE MISS
11/1  -  TULSA
11/8  -  at S Carolina
11/22  -  at Mississippi St
11/28  -  LSU

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 22-16 (58%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 18-17 (51%)
at Home ATS: 4-3, 9-10 (47%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 3-2, 9-7 (56%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 14-11 (56%)
Non-Conference ATS: 2-2, 4-6 (40%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-4, 12-11 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 2-1, 6-6 (50%)
Over-Under: 8-4, 20-14 (59%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +10.8 (21st of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +10.7 (19th of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 47 (24th of 119)
Turnover Differential: +0.31 (34th of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

The outlook could have been worse at Arkansas after the loss of running backs Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, both of whom were selected in the first round of April’s NFL Draft. Compounding the problem was the loss of head coach Houston Nutt before the Cotton Bowl and more recently, the NCAA’s decision to prohibit Michigan transfer Ryan Mallet from lining up at quarterback. The arrival of head coach Bobby Petrino changes all that.

OFFENSE

The best way to forget about the immediate past may be to go in a completely different direction, and that’s exactly what Arkansas is doing by adding Petrino and his spread offense. Casey Dick, who fought off Mitch Mustain two years ago, may get another reprieve with Mallet watching from the sideline. This time, however, Dick’s going to have a lot more responsibility on his shoulders. McFadden and Jones limited his workload--Dick threw for just 1,695 yards and 18 touchdowns--but he completed just 57.5 percent of his passes. The passing game wasn’t great, ranking 112th in the nation, but it skated by because the running attack generated nearly 300 yards per game (286.5). Dick wowed the crowd at the spring game throwing for 404 yards, but he’ll still get competition from junior Alex Mortensen and his younger brother, redshirt freshman Nathan Dick. The returning wide receivers have little experience, but Petrino is going to turn them loose in the fall. Junior London Crawford and sophomore Carlton Salters and sophomore tight ends D.J. Williams and Ben Cleveland are among those to keep an eye on. Senior Reggie Fish, junior Lucas Miller and redshirt freshman Crosby Tuck round out the list of receivers, none of whom had more than 12 receptions. Senior center Jonathan Luigs, an All-SEC first-team selection, and senior Mitch Petrus are the top linemen, and senior left tackle Jose Valdez is back to protect Dick’s blindside. Tailback Michael Smith, like Dick, turned in an eye-opening performance during the spring game. Though he’s not guaranteed to be the starter, his 157 yards on just 13 carries left a permanent mark on Petrino’s brain. Junior Brandon Barnett and sophomore Chip Gregory can eat into Smith’s time.

DEFENSE

The defense isn’t a complete mess, but the Razorbacks are in the process of working in six new starters, including all four in the secondary. At least the corners and safeties get a chance to face a pass-happy offense on a daily basis in practice. Junior ends Malcom Sheppard and Adrian Davis return after combining for 107 tackles, 21 for loss, and 26 quarterback hurries. Senior Ernest Mitchell, a 305-pound senior nose tackle, is a space eater on the line. Depth is an issue at linebacker despite senior Elston Forte and junior Freddie Fairchild returning. Junior Wendel Davis, sophomores Freddie Burton, Aaron Fenton, Ryan Powers and Aaron Fenton and redshirt freshman Jerry Franklin are helping establish the two deep, but none had more than 39 tackles. The move of junior Robert Salinas to linebacker underscores the need for bodies at the position. It’s not exactly being rebuilt on the fly, but the secondary can count on growing pains during a five-game stretch in September

SPECIAL TEAMS

Sophomore kicker Alex Tejada earned All-SEC honors after converting 17 of 23 field goals and 58 of 60 extra-point attempts. The return units lost two gamebreakers in McFadden and Jones, and Norton is among several players that can fill the spots.

PREDICTION

Not to doubt Petrino, but there’s some serious work to be done in reshaping the Razorbacks. The defense needs polish and live bodies capable of stepping into the SEC. Dick is a lock to accumulate points, and even Smith will surprise in the backfield. But even if it’s great to watch the Razorbacks, expect a fallback from eight wins.

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AUBURN TIGERS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 9-4 (7-5 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Tommy Tuberville, 10th year
STADIUM: Jordan-Hare Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 8  DEFENSE - 7
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 50  LOST: 18

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 43.92 (12th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/30  -  LA MONROE
9/6  -  SOUTHERN MISS
9/13  -  at Mississippi St
9/20  -  LSU
9/27  -  TENNESSEE
10/4  -  at Vanderbilt
10/11  -  ARKANSAS
10/23  -  at W Virginia
11/1  -  at Ole Miss
11/8  -  TENN-MARTIN
11/15  -  GEORGIA
11/29  -  at Alabama

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 9-4, 29-9 (76%)
Overall ATS: 7-5, 21-15 (58%)
at Home ATS: 3-4, 11-10 (52%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 4-1, 10-5 (67%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 16-8 (67%)
Non-Conference ATS: 2-2, 5-7 (42%)
as Favorite ATS: 3-4, 14-14 (50%)
as Underdog ATS: 4-1, 7-1 (88%)
Over-Under: 4-8, 16-20 (44%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +7.3 (33rd of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +10.3 (20th of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 50 (15th of 119)
Turnover Differential: +0.00 (55th of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

It’s easy for Auburn to get lost in the Southeastern Conference headlines even though the program has earned eight consecutive trips to a bowl game and posted a nine-win season. LSU, Georgia, Florida and even upstart Alabama may get the ink, but the Tigers are quietly assembling a team that should at least be mentioned in the SEC title mix.

OFFENSE

Former quarterback Brandon Cox won’t go down as one of the most exciting quarterbacks in Auburn history, but it’s hard to ignore his 26 wins as a starter. Sophomore Kodi Burns, however, has the prep pedigree and had an instant impact in Auburn’s first game running new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin’s spread offense. He ran for a team-high 69 yards in the Chick-fil-A-Bowl and scored the game-winning touchdown. He’ll be pushed by junior Chris Todd and possibly freshman DeRonn Furr, but Burns’ talents are perfectly suited to the new scheme. Spreading the field puts the emphasis on playmakers, a major change for the normally conservative Tigers. Senior Rodgeriqus Smith is back at one of four starting spots at wide receiver and grabbed a team-best 52 balls for 705 yards and five scores. No other Tiger had more than 28 catches, but that’s about to change under Franklin. Seniors Robert Dunn and James Swinton have been elevated on the depth chart, and redshirt freshman Tim Hawthorne ended spring practice ahead of sophomore Mario Fannin. Hawthorne, ranked No. 4 nationally at wide receiver by Rivals.com coming out of high school, could ultimately challenge Smith for the role of top dog. Senior running back Brad Lester and junior Ben Tate anchor the ground attack and will continue splitting time. Lester missed the first five games due to an academic suspension but still ran for 530 yards and three scores. Tate picked up the torch and ran with it, finishing with an Auburn-best 903 yards and eight rushing touchdowns. No matter who has the ball, he will be running behind a line returning four starters, including 307-pound left guard Tyronne Green. There appeared to be little problem adjusting to the spread up front, as the Tigers set a season high in total yards (423) in the bowl win over Clemson.

DEFENSE

As the offense undergoes a facelift, however, the defense keeps the same look under new coordinator Paul Rhoads. To give an idea of how strong the defense was, consider the four starters that won’t be back were all drafted by NFL teams in April. Senior Antonio Coleman returns on the end after stopping 18.5 plays for loss and notching 8.5 sacks. He and junior tackle Sen’Derrick Marks are the driving forces behind a defense that finished sixth in the nation in scoring (16.9 points per game) and pass defense (173.2 yards per game). As it stands now, Marks, who’s made 26 straight starts, is slated to move down the line from end, opening the door for sophomore Michael Goggans, Auburn’s Most Improved Player during spring drills. All three of last year’s starting linebackers (senior Chris Evans, junior Tray Blackmon and sophomore Craig Stevens) return. The secondary, like the line, lost a pair of key contributors to the NFL, but don’t call it depleted. Junior Jerraud Powers is a jack of all trades at cornerback and finished fourth on the team with 63 tackles. He tied for the team lead with four interceptions and added five pass breakups and four tackles for loss. Sophomore strong safety Zac Etheridge ranked No. 2 in tackles (65).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Sophomore kicker Wes Bynum displayed his nerves of steal, booting a pair of last-second, game-winning field goals, and sophomore punter Ryan Shoemaker also had a strong debut, finishing second in the SEC in yards per punt (42.4).

PREDICTION

Age is only a number for Auburn, which placed an SEC-best six players on the All-Freshman team. It’s that immediate spark that leaves little doubt the Tigers can contend on a national level. The schedule isn’t a killer, as Auburn gets to host LSU, Tennessee and Georgia, and it’s just a matter of how fast the offense can develop consistency and explosiveness.

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LSU TIGERS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 12-2 (5-7 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Les Miles, 4th year
STADIUM: Tiger Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 7  DEFENSE - 5
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 44  LOST: 24

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 40.00 (47th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/30  -  APPALACHIAN ST
9/6  -  TROY
9/13  -  NORTH TEXAS
9/20  -  at Auburn
9/27  -  MISSISSIPPI ST
10/11  -  at Florida
10/18  -  at S Carolina
10/25  -  GEORGIA
11/1  -  TULANE
11/8  -  ALABAMA
11/22  -  OLE MISS
11/28  -  at Arkansas

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 12-2, 34-6 (85%)
Overall ATS: 5-7, 18-17 (51%)
at Home ATS: 3-4, 9-11 (45%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 9-6 (60%)
vs Conference ATS: 1-6, 6-16 (27%)
Non-Conference ATS: 4-1, 12-1 (92%)
as Favorite ATS: 5-7, 16-15 (52%)
as Underdog ATS: 0-0, 2-2 (50%)
Over-Under: 10-4, 24-15 (62%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: +18.7 (5th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +22.8 (3rd of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 58 (4th of 119)
Turnover Differential: +1.43 (2nd of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

The Tigers were in the news just after the conclusion of spring practice, but it was for all the wrong reasons. Quarterback Ryan Perrilloux, dubbed as the next big thing from the Bayou, was dismissed from the team following several suspensions in the last few months. Does it send the Tigers into a tailspin? Not exactly, but his loss doesn’t make defending the national title any easier.

OFFENSE

The Tigers lost considerable grade-A talent from the championship team, including quarterback Matt Flynn and wide receiver Early Doucet. But the bigger problem may be replacing players like tailback Jacob Hester and safety Craig Steltz, who were as much the heart and soul of the team as the playmakers. Dismissing Perrilloux makes the new direction at quarterback a given heading into the summer and allows junior Andrew Hatch and redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee a few extra months of preparation. Hatch has just two career passes, and Lee has even fewer—-zero. But one of the two is the odds-on-favorite to take over the No. 1 role. The potential exists for a four-headed monster in the backfield led by juniors Keiland Williams and Trindon Holliday. Each averaged nearly seven yards per carry, totaling 842 yards on just 123 attempts, and junior Charles Scott was even better at 7.2 yards on his 45 totes. Plus, sophomore Richard Murphy made a big racket in the spring game, running for 145 yards.  The ground attack shouldn’t miss a beat as only one new starter, either sophomore tackle Joseph Barksdale or Jarvis Jones, enters the huddle up front. Senior guard Herman Johnson and junior tackle Ciron Black headline the returning linemen. Doucet, the team leader in receptions, moved on to the NFL but junior Brandon LaFell and senior Demetrius Byrd don’t represent any drop off in talent. In fact, Byrd’s a playmaker just waiting for a full-time opportunity, grabbing 35 balls for 621 yards and an LSU-best seven receiving scores.

DEFENSE

Judging by April’s NFL Draft, it appears the pros were just as smitten with the defense as LSU fans. Five players from the unit were selected, including former tackle Glenn Dorsey, the fifth-overall overall. Teams like the Tigers are never at a loss for talent, but replacing one of the best players in the program’s history—-Dorsey—-will be tough. He anchored the No. 12 run defense in the county (106.1 yards per game) and finished third in tackles (69). It will be hard to reproduce the plus-20 turnover ratio LSU had and the nation’s No. 3 overall defensive ranking, but given the experience in the trenches and ability to pressure on opposing quarterbacks it’s not a stretch to suggest the unit will continue to rank among the best. Senior bookends Kirston Pittman (14 quarterback hurries, 13.5 tackles for loss, eight sacks) and Tyson Jackson (15 quarterback hurries, 10 pass breakups) remain a nightmare for offensive coordinators, and senior Marlon Favorite and junior Al Woods join junior Ricky Jean-Francois in trying to fill the gap left by Dorsey. Senior middle linebacker Darry Beckwith posted 65 tackles and is the lone returning starter in the second line of defense. Along with two new linebackers at the top of the depth chart, LSU brings in a pair of cornerbacks, junior Chris Hawkins and sophomore Jai Eugene, who earned their stripes as reserves. The duo will be helped by veteran safety Curtis Taylor (54 tackles, six pass breakups), one of the lone holdovers in a defensive backfield that had three players drafted by the NFL.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Williams and Holliday form a dynamic kick-return team, and Holliday averaged 26.2 yards per run back. Senior kicker Colt David converted 26 of 33 field-goal attempts and was a unanimous All-SEC first-team selection.

PREDICTION

Can LSU return to the title game? Yes. Will it? Highly unlikely. The Tigers would have to navigate a murderous schedule that includes all the big heavies in the SEC, including a month-long stretch with games at Auburn, Florida and South Carolina. LSU caught plenty of breaks on the way to the national title, but the cookie will crumble differently this year.

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MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 8-5 (6-6 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Sylvester Croom, 5th year
STADIUM: Scott Field (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 7  DEFENSE - 8
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 47  LOST: 19

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 40.67 (38th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/30  -  at Louisiana Tech
9/6  -  SE LOUISIANA
9/13  -  AUBURN
9/20  -  at Georgia Tech
9/27  -  at LSU
10/11  -  VANDERBILT
10/18  -  at Tennessee
10/25  -  MIDDLE TENN ST
11/1  -  KENTUCKY
11/15  -  at Alabama
11/22  -  ARKANSAS
11/28  -  at Ole Miss

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 8-5, 14-22 (39%)
Overall ATS: 6-6, 14-18 (44%)
at Home ATS: 1-4, 4-12 (25%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 5-2, 10-6 (63%)
vs Conference ATS: 3-5, 9-14 (39%)
Non-Conference ATS: 3-1, 5-4 (56%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-2, 2-4 (33%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-4, 12-14 (46%)
Over-Under: 5-7, 14-19 (42%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: -1.2 (67th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +1.4 (63rd of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 42 (46th of 119)
Turnover Differential: +0.00 (55th of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

After struggling off the beaten path, the Bulldogs are suddenly cruising down the road to success. Forget five-year plans, because head coach Sylvester Croom has righted the ship in just four. The talent base has been replenished, the Southeastern Conference is on notice and Mississippi State even has a surprise 2007 bowl victory under its belt. Built more around team play than stars, Croom’s strength-in-numbers approach is working.

SPECIAL TEAMS

PREDICTION

There’s nothing soft about the Bulldogs 2007 mark. Four SEC victories, including two on the road, signify the leap the program has made. While we’re not talking about Mississippi State winning an outright SEC title just yet, improvement from the offense will put Croom’s crew in the thick of the West Division race for much of 2008.

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OLE MISS REBELS

KEY TEAM INFORMATION
2007 RECORD: 3-9 (6-5 ATS)
HEAD COACH: Houston Nutt, 1st year
STADIUM: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Grass)
RETURNING STARTERS: OFFENSE - 7  DEFENSE - 9
LETTERMEN RETURNING: 46  LOST: 16

2008 GAME SCHEDULE - Strength: 42.92 (19th toughest of 120)
Date   -   Opponent
8/30  -  MEMPHIS
9/6  -  at Wake Forest
9/13  -  SAMFORD
9/20  -  VANDERBILT
9/27  -  at Florida
10/4  -  S CAROLINA
10/18  -  at Alabama
10/25  -  at Arkansas
11/1  -  AUBURN
11/15  -  LA MONROE
11/22  -  at LSU
11/28  -  MISSISSIPPI ST

3-YEAR SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Situation: 2007 Record, 3-yr Total
Straight Up: 3-9, 10-25 (29%)
Overall ATS: 6-5, 14-16 (47%)
at Home ATS: 4-2, 8-7 (53%)
Away/Neutral ATS: 2-3, 6-9 (40%)
vs Conference ATS: 5-3, 12-11 (52%)
Non-Conference ATS: 1-2, 2-5 (29%)
as Favorite ATS: 1-1, 1-4 (20%)
as Underdog ATS: 5-4, 13-12 (52%)
Over-Under: 4-7, 11-20 (35%)

2007 KEY STRENGTH RATINGS (NCAA Rank)
Scoring Differential: -8.4 (95th of 119)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -2.9 (72nd of 119)
StatFox Power Rating: 37 (63rd of 119)
Turnover Differential: -0.83 (107th of 119)

INTRODUCTION & REVIEW:

Sooner or later something has to start going right for the Rebels. Over the last four seasons, Ole Miss is just 14-32, and a third head coach since 2003 is on board. As the curtain opens on 2008, hope again fills the air. This time, quarterback Jevan Snead, formerly a backup to Colt McCoy at Texas, has been designated The Chosen One. New head coach Houston Nutt probably had the right idea when he bailed on Arkansas, personal issues or not, but moving to Mississippi?

OFFENSE

The best way to describe the Rebels offense under former head coach Ed Orgeron? Disastrous puts it nicely. Ole Miss ranked 104th in scoring (20.1 points per game), 107th in turnover margin and 84th running the ball (131.5 yards per game). There’s a major transformation occurring at the skill positions, where Snead takes over under center. Forced to sit out a year because he transferred, Snead exploded in the Spring game, connecting immediately with senior wide receiver Mike Wallace and junior Dexter McCluster. Big plays were few and far between for the Rebels in the passing game, and no SEC team had more interceptions than their 20. Snead is more than just a quick fix and if his Spring debut is any indication, Ole Miss’ offense should get better in a hurry. To be fair to former tailback BenJarvus Green, he did run for 1,137 yards, and the ground attack didn’t get much of a chance. Ole Miss finished next-to-last in attempts (379), just seven ahead of South Carolina, mostly due to playing from behind. Things should be different under Nutt, who most recently enjoyed an explosive one-two combination in the backfield at Arkansas. He could have the same type of arrangement with junior Cordera Eason and incoming freshman Enrique Davis both gamebreakers. Eason had a huge debut in the Spring game, running for 101 yards on 14 carries and stands to give Davis a fight for the bulk of the work. The biggest strength is the offensive line, anchored by senior left tackle Michael Oher (6-5, 325), senior guard Maurice Miller (6-3, 343) and junior guards Reid Neely (6-6, 305) and tackle John Jerry (6-5, 340).

DEFENSE

Hard to describe the defense in a better light than the offense, especially against the run, as Ole Miss was trampled for 188.1 yards per game (101st in the nation), and allowed 28.5 points per game. All but two starters return, which depending on how it’s viewed, can either be good experience wise, or bad because of 2007’s outcome. Taking the positive view, three starters are back along the line led by junior defensive end Greg Hardy, a preseason All-American after notching 64 tackles, 18.5 for loss and 10 sacks. Junior Marcus Tillman is back on the opposite end and senior Peria Jerry (14 tackles for loss) returns at tackle. If there’s a silver lining, it’s the linebackers, where all three starters are back. Seniors Ashlee Palmer and Tony Fein each finished among the Top 10 in the SEC in tackles per game. Palmer’s 89 tackles, seven pass breakups and three interceptions were all team highs, and Fein finished second in stops (84). The problem, however, lies on the two-deep where bodies have been tough to come by. The same numbers issue also affects the secondary despite the return of senior safety Jamarca Sanford (83 tackles and 5.5 for loss) and sophomore Johnny Brown (60 tackles) and senior cornerback Dustin Mouzon. The Rebels need to develop some younger players who can contribute immediately.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Junior kicker Joshua Shene and junior punter Justin Sparks are unspectacular, and the same is true of the return units led by Wallace and junior Marshay Green.

PREDICTION

At least Nutt doesn’t have a tough act to follow at Ole Miss. After an 0-8 mark in the SEC (3-21 in the last three), there’s nowhere to go but up. The offense is putting together the pieces to jump from awful to respectable, skipping straight over below-average, and that gives the team a fighting chance to make a run at .500.

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