A number of large mismatches dot the Arena Football card this weekend, with five games showing favorites of more than a touchdown, including four at 12.5-points or more. We’ll take a look at one such investment opportunity between Columbus and Philadelphia, along with two of the more closely contested games at Grand Rapids and New York. Make certain to read each game write-up and predictions, since our AFL expert is delivering winning opinions.

Friday May 16

Tampa Bay at Grand Rapids

Tampa Bay (4-6, 3-7 ATS) is frantically trying to salvage season, seeking third win in last four games at Grand Rapids (3-7, 6-4 ATS). As it has been all season, the Storm were involved in another tight ball game last week, squeaking by New Orleans 41-37 as two-point home favorites. That was Tampa Bay’s seventh contest this season, which was decided by eight or fewer points. The Storm is 26-10 ATS after allowing five or less yards a play in their previous game.

Grand Rapids stayed within shouting distance of Dallas, eventually losing by 11 as 12-point road underdogs. Even with mediocre record, the Rampage could still make the playoffs with a winning streak in second-rate American Conference. More than anything, Grand Rapids needs to tune up defense, which allows 60 points per game, 18th in the league. The Rampage is 9-2 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up losses over the last two seasons.

Bookmaker.com has Tampa Bay as 2.5-point road favorite with total at 112. The Storm is 6-1 and 5-2 ATS in Michigan.

StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay by 2

StatFox Edge – Under

Saturday May 17

Columbus at Philadelphia

Consecutive losses have taken Philadelphia (9-2, 7-4 ATS) from unbeaten in the AFL, to second place in the Eastern Division. The last loss was galling, blowing a 22-point lead in the final minutes at Georgia to lose by a single digit. This makes two untidy defensive efforts in a row for the Soul, surrendering 67 and 63 points. Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS after allowing 58 points or more in two straight games.

Columbus (2-8, 4-4-2 ATS) doesn’t figure to present much of a challenge in terms of wins and losses for the Soul, yet should at least have a chance to cover large 16.5-point underdog role. One big concern for the Destroyers, they score the fewest points (47.4) in the league and Philadelphia scores the most (63.8). This places a lot of pressure on QB Matt Nagy to come thru in tough situation, being on four-game losing streak.
 
Philadelphia is 5-0 at home (4-1 ATS) and should look to wax Columbus, nonetheless with this big a number, the Destroyers are poised to increase record of 13-3 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent.

StatFox Power Line – Philadelphia by 18

StatFox Edge – Columbus covers

Sunday May 18

Georgia at New York

Georgia may have saved their season with incomprehensible comeback against Philly. This squared the Force record up at 5-5 (4-6 ATS) and maybe provided the emphasis quarterback Chris Greisen and Georgia needs. It has hard not to notice the Force offense, which has suddenly become quite a force. In team’s last six outings, they are averaging 65.3 PPG and  are 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last three seasons.

New York (6-4, 6-3-1 ATS) hasn’t needed any miraculous events to take place, they have earned five-game winning streak.  New York can extend its winning streak to six games for the first time since 1996 with a win. Signal caller Aaron Garcia chases history and could have a trifecta Sunday afternoon. Garcia needs 309 passing yards to become the fourth player in AFL history to amass 40,000 career. Garcia also needs four touchdown passes to become the third player in AFL history with 850 career and can become the fourth player in AFL history to attempt 5,000 career passes with 38. The Dragons could have their hands full being 2-10 ATS at home games against National Conference teams from other division.

New York is a one-point home favorite with several other factors in their favor. Georgia is just 1-9 ATS in road games after a win by six points or less points, while the Dragons are 9-2 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 64 percent or better over the last two seasons. As hot as the Force offense has been, the New York defense has been equally as potent, allowing 40.3 PPG in last six contests.

StatFox Power Line – Georgia by 5

StatFox Edge – New York covers

StatFox Edge Season Record - 25-17-2