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MLB Series Betting – L.A. Angels at Tampa Bay
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 5/9/2008  at  11:48:00 AM
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Normally by now, the Tampa Bay Rays are starting dissent to the bottom of the AL East. During the course of the season, they would have a few hot streaks and beat the Yankees or Boston a couple of times at home to make SportsCenter, but by and large Tampa Bay stinkin’ up the joint is about as dependable as a summer thunderstorm on the West Coast of Florida. Something is different this year about Tampa Bay besides the change of nickname and a splashy new logo. Every starting pitcher, with a minimum of three starts has an earned run average under five. Three different hurlers for the Rays have winning records in games in which they started. Of the 34 games Tampa Bay (18-16, +3 units) has played, they have actually been a favorite (18) more times than an underdog (16), signifying respect from oddsmakers. Finally, even more incredible, they are 15-11 (+5.8 units) in the AL East, that’s improvement.

For Angels manager Mike Scioscia, this is a strange series. It’s like looking in the mirror playing against Tampa Bay, since his opposing manager on the bench is Joe Maddon, who sat by him for the first six years he was the Halos skipper. Scioscia still communicates with Maddon, just not this week. The team that is from Los Angeles (22-14,+5 units), but resides in Anaheim, is off to good start in 2008, currently tied with upstart Oakland. To the manager’s and players credit, the Angels have held up amazing well, considering top two starting pitchers from a season ago have yet to take the mound in this season and their third best pitcher, Jered Weaver, is 2-5 with an ERA over 5.50. The veteran manager is a skilled tactician, able to adjust to the talent on hand and develop best methods for his club to win.

In the series opener James Shields (3-2, 3.80) and the Rays are -140 favorites over the Angles. Shields best pitch is change-up, with above average fastball and curve and has added cutter to repertoire this season. Tampa Bay doesn’t have many positive numbers in their favor; however Shields and his teammates are 10-1 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a game over the last three seasons. Los Angeles counters with John Garland (4-3, 5.08) as its starter. Garland has been hit hard a few this season, yet with the help of pitching coach Mike Butcher, he’s worked to correct flaw in delivery, which was causing him to lose velocity and movement. Garland is 14-4 against AL East opponents over the last two seasons (Team's Record), including 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA in five career starts at Tropicana Field.

Game 1 Edge: Rays

Among the best money pitchers in baseball is the Angels Joe Saunders (6-0, 2.61), who gets the ball in the middle game of the series. Saunders is presently third in the majors at +7.1 units. Since being in the regular rotation essentially from the beginning of 2006, Saunders has been on of the best money-makers on the mound with 28-10 mark (Angels record), good for +17.3 units. His opposite will be Scott Kazmir, the reigning AL strikeout king, who made his 2008 debut Sunday against the Red Sox after missing the first month of the season while recovering from inflammation in his left elbow. Kazmir was understandably rusty, throwing just over 60 percent strikes of his 90 pitches. If Kazmir were to struggle again, for the first time, he has a representative bullpen behind him. The Rays bullpen is in the top 10 in baseball with a 3.37 ERA and almost un-hittable at the “Trop” with 1.67 ERA. The Rays come into this series with a 5-0 record against teams with a .600 or better record in 2008.

Game 2 Edge: Angels

The series finale sets up as a beauty for those who love a well pitched game. Ervin Santana (6-0, 2.02) has been known primarily as pitcher who is awesome at home and flat out terrible on the road. This year Santana has found a new maturity, as he has won all four road starts. Tampa Bay will trot our Andy Sonnanstine (5-1, 4.64). The 25-year RH is similar to teammate Shields, with better control of the strike zone, but less command to place pitches were he needs. This accounts for a higher ERA, since he hits more bats getting the ball up. Sonnanstine won five games faster than any pitcher in Tampa Bay history to start a season. Watch the total on this contest, with Santana 5-0-2 UNDER and the Rays 20-8 UNDER in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game.

Game 3 Edge: Angels

This is one of those series that makes baseball fun, a team that has set a standard of excellence against a team showing positive signs of improvement. The Halos are 13-4 vs Tampa Bay the last two seasons, including 5-4 at Tropicana Field. This year the Angels have also gotten off to fast start on the road with 12-6 (+6 units) record and should have the edge in a very competitive series.

Sportsbook.com series odds: L.A. Angels -Even, Tampa Bay -130

StatFox Edge Pick: Angels

2008 Record – 3-1

 


 

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