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To say the first annual 2008 StatFox College Basketball Tournament Handicapping Guide was a success would be a vast understatement. In fact, so many readers enjoyed success these past few weeks either in pools or at the betting window that we decided to publish much of the great feedback we received. Not lost in the euphoria was our very own StatFox Matt, who finished 1st out of 18,526 entrants in an ESPN.com group bracket contest. Before getting into the testimonials however, here’s a look at some of the highlights that the publication produced. Recall when thinking about these that 2008 was the first publishing of the StatFox College Basketball Tournament Handicapping Guide! Be sure to get in line next March for the second edition! The ’08 SCBTHG produced these great projections: - Of the four key ratings systems used (StatFox Power Ratings, StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings, StatFox Forecaster, Points Per Possession Differential), ALL FOUR projected the Final Four Teams.
- ALL FOUR ratings systems projected a Memphis-Kansas Title Game
- The Points Per Possession Differential and StatFox Power Ratings each picked Kansas as the eventual champion.
- StatFox Matt, StatFox Doug, and StatFox Steve all picked Kansas to win the tournament. The StatFox Consensus accurately projected the Final Four, and Title Game Results.
- Steve Makinen’s “What Does it Take?” article listed Kansas and North Carolina as the two teams with the most qualifying characteristics to win the national championship.
- The four ratings systems were 15 of 16 in projecting the Sweet 16 teams in the East Region.
- Davidson was projected by three of the rating systems to reach the Elite 8 round, then lose to Kansas in tight fashion. Elsewhere in the Midwest Region, Kansas State was an outright winner projected by all but the StatFox Power Ratings over USC.
- In the South Region, the four ratings systems combined to nail 27 of the 32 total first round winners.
- In the West Region, Western Kentucky was a Sweet 16 pick by both the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings and the StatFox Forecaster. In fact, both indicators gauged WKU as the region’s 3rd best team. Here are just a handful of the comments we received from readers over the past month. Be sure to look for these testimonials in the 2009 guide! “I just wanted to say thanks StatFox for an awesome tournament magazine. The money I invested in it paid off over 100x in the four bets I made on Davidson alone. According to your guide, they weren’t even a sleeper!” – Trent – Las Vegas, NV “I can’t believe so much valuable information can be packed in a magazine that is just $10. I’m kicking myself now for never using it before.” – Terrence – Jamaica, New York. – Don’t be too hard on yourself Terrence, this is the first time we produced the Guide…SF “This is about the 20th year in a row I’ve entered a $100 bracket pool with the guys at work and have never won until this season. I had my doubts about Kansas but your magazine sure convinced me. I hesitate to tell everyone my secret. I don’t want to give up the “Edge”.” – James – Dallas, TX “I half expected to see Luther Van Dross on my porch singing One Shining Moment since the tournament went so well for me this year. Thanks StatFox.” – Craig – Cleveland, OH “My buddies and I went to Vegas over Final Four weekend armed with your magazine and pooled our money together big time on your Kansas and Memphis projections. My money isn’t staying in Vegas this time, as I came home with a lot more than I left with!” – Aaron – Lincoln, NE Finally, two comments from StatFox staff members who enjoyed their own deep tournament runs: StatFox’s Matt Devine, Art Director of the guide, who finished 1st of 18,526 entrants in an ESPN.com pool testifies: “I simply took what the ratings had to say an entered them in the pool. After a while, I just couldn’t believe how well it was going. As if the #1 ranking on the ESPN thing isn’t cool enough, the money I’ve won is paying for my trip to Vegas next month!” StatFox Dave adds, “I got in my usual two pools and while I’m always competitive, I’ve never won any of them, much less sweeping the pair! The guy running one of them said I was the first person in 12 years to clinch the pool before the title game. It’s good too, because I had Memphis in that one! Anyway, $5k is going to make one heck of a party! That book was awesome.”
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