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Arizona heavily favored to win ArenaBowl XXIV
By: Nick Bracken - StatFox
Published: 8/12/2011  at  4:48:00 AM
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JACKSONVILLE SHARKS (16-4)

at ARIZONA RATTLERS (18-2)

ArenaBowl XXIV
Kickoff: Friday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -9, Total: 115.5

The Jacksonville Sharks will travel to play the Arizona Rattlers Friday night for the right to be ArenaBowl champions. The Rattlers come in on a sweltering hot 11-game win streak, but the Sharks are keyed up to participate in the ArenaBowl in just their second season as an AFL franchise.

Jacksonville has been a tremendous bet all year, as its 13-7 ATS mark ranks second in the AFL behind Milwaukee. However, the Sharks are just 4-5 ATS on the road and just 0-1 ATS as an underdog. Although Jacksonville just played on Monday, the team has been very good with six days rest or less, going 9-3 ATS this year and 16-6 ATS over the past two seasons. Despite Arizona’s record-setting 18-2 SU mark, it is a mere 4-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. Unlike the Sharks, Arizona has not had much success playing on six days of rest or less, notching a 6-7 ATS record. As a favorite, the Rattlers are only 11-8 ATS and being nine-point favorites will be hard to cover. The pick here is for JACKSONVILLE to cover with a good possibility of upsetting Arizona for its first AFL championship.

The FoxSheets provide two more trends backing the Sharks.

Play On - Any team (JACKSONVILLE) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off a close wins of 10 points or less over a division rival. (32-10 since 1996.) (76.2%, +21 units. Rating = 2*).

JACKSONVILLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite this season. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 64.0, OPPONENT 44.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Despite this game pitting the two highest-scoring teams in the league, the FoxSheets provide an amazing seven-star trend urging bettors to take the UNDER.

Play Under - Any team when the total is greater than or equal to 110 (JACKSONVILLE, ARIZONA) - in a game involving two teams with good turnover differentials (+0.75/game or better). (28-0 over the last 10 seasons.) (100%, +28 units. Rating = 7*).

Jacksonville’s 40-year old quarterback, Aaron Garcia has never played in the ArenaBowl despite his 17 years in the AFL and league-record 50,019 career passing yards and 1,078 TD tosses. Garcia has used his veteran wit and polished skills to make the Sharks the most-feared offensive team in the league at 64.3 PPG. In the Conference Finals against Georgia, a 64-55 victory, Garcia was 22-of-28 for 313 yards and eight touchdowns. WR Jeff Hughley caught three TD passes and racked up 168 receiving yards on seven catches against the Force.

The Arizona Rattlers defeated the Chicago Rush 54-48 on Saturday, despite a furious comeback by the Rush, who trailed 41-19 before scoring 29 points in the final quarter. The Rattlers caused five turnovers (for the second straight game), led by DB Virgil Gray, who intercepted two passes in the third quarter. Rattlers star QB Nick Davila, who has led his team to 61.5 PPG (second in AFL), threw for 283 yards and seven touchdowns in the win over Chicago. Davila’s favorite target was Jason Geathers, who caught 10 balls for 150 yards and four touchdowns. Chris Jackson caught the other three TD passes.

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