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Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 1/29/2020  at  5:34:00 PM
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Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems

Part 2 of a 3 part series

The 2006 Super Bowl won by Pittsburgh was the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a No. 6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then, we have seen Wild Card teams Indianapolis, the Giants and Green Bay win titles. Seven years ago, we saw a No. 4-seeded NFC team that won just nine games during the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the spread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06. The 2011 Giants squad, another one to have made the playoffs as a No. 4 seed with a 9-7 record during the regular season, beat New England outright as an underdog for the second time in five years. Seven years ago, it was the underdog Ravens that earned a No. 4 seed with a 10-6 record during the regular season before winning a home game and then two road playoff games in which they were more than a touchdown underdog. Baltimore ended the season with an outright win as an underdog against San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings and previous templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most. Order was restored briefly 10 years ago, as two No. 1 seeds—New Orleans and Indianapolis—met for the first time in 16 years. And for the sixth time in seven years, we have a Super Bowl that includes at least one No. 1 seed.

With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats and other tidbits that you can use to either handicap this year’s game or offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by wowing your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl trivia: In the last 19 Super Bowl games, including this one, there have been 12 different NFC representatives, but just seven from the AFC. Enjoy the trends; where appropriate we will give the most recent game trend.

  • Favorites in the Super Bowl are 33-20 SU and 24-26-3 ATS. However, in the past 18 years, the underdog is 13-5 ATS (72%).
  • The NFC holds a 27-26 SU and 27-23-3 (54%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 7-10 SU but 10-7 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in February 2003.
  • The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 2-14-2 ATS (13%) in the last 18 Super Bowls played between teams with different seed numbers. • The team with the better record going into the game is 31-17 SU.
  • The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark. There had been 18 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record: 0-19 SU & ATS (0%).
  • There have been 2,450 total points scored in Super Bowls for an average of 46.2 PPG (winner 1,595 points or 30.1 PPG). Over the last 14 years, that figure is 46.7 PPG (but winner only 28.1 PPG) despite the fact that the game has featured such high-powered offenses as Drew Brees’ Saints, Aaron Rodgers’ Packers and five of Tom Brady’s teams, including the record-breaking Patriots that entered Super Bowl XLII with an 18-0 record.
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