Super Bowl Stat Angles

Part 1 of a 3 part series

Miami, Florida, hosts this year’s Super Bowl LIV matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. First, a word of caution always has to accompany an article about Super Bowl handicapping: Remember that it is one game, the most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. Wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season’s worth of hard work. The Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine: Two weeks of rest, a neutral field and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for an overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay to do your homework. Hopefully, with everything we’re offering for the showdown on Sunday, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. Here, we look back at 53 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends and systems you’ll need to make educated selections.

Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral-field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven a dozen years ago in the Giants’ mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl—winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays and avoids turning the ball over. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers and time of possession are four key statistical categories that we like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics:

• Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 39-13 SU & 36-13-3 ATS (73%). (The Patriots and Falcons each rushed for 104 yards in Super Bowl LI.)
• Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 42-11 SU & 36-14-3 ATS (72%).
• In the 53 previous Super Bowls, the team with more turnovers has won just six times SU and seven times ATS. The only winners that lost the turnover battle in the past 25 games were Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XL and New England in Super Bowl XLIX and Super Bowl LI.
• Teams that win the time-of-possession battle in the Super Bowl are 39-14 SU & 38-12-3 ATS (76%).
• Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 40-4 SU & 36-7-1 ATS (84%).
• Teams that win all four categories are 25-0 SU & 23-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred when the Patriots failed to cover a 7-point spread in a 24-21 victory over the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.

More NFL: NFL FoxSheets and https://twitter.com/StatFoxSports