NCAA Tournament – First Round – Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
Tip-off: Friday, 6:50 pm ET
Line: Creighton -1.5, Total: 144.5

Virginia (likely) awaits the winner of Friday’s showdown between Kansas State and Creighton.

Putting Creighton as a No. 8 seed in the tournament was seemingly one of the NCAA Tournament selection committee's more curious choices this year. While the Bluejays got conference wins over Butler, Seton Hall and, most of all, Villanova, all three came at home. A neutral site win over UCLA in November marked their most significant out-of-conference win. They enter the tournament coming off of two straight losses, a loss to Marquette to end the regular season—their second in two weeks—and an overtime loss to Providence in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. But despite its flawed resume, Creighton will play as the favorite on Friday evening when it plays No. 9 seed Kansas State in Charlotte. While KSU didn't give itself many chances to impress in out-of-conference play—its loss to Tulsa was the most notable result—it became battle-hardened through its brutal slate in the Big 12. While it picked up solid wins against the league's middle class and finished fourth in the regular season standings, it went 0-7 against its top three finishers: Kansas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. So while KSU may not be the biggest threat to Virginia if it advances, it is very much capable of taking down the Bluejays.

Ranked 59th in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency, Kansas State is unspectacular on that end of the floor. It is, however, armed with two players who can create their own shot against any defense, something that becomes increasingly valuable come tournament time. First is F Dean Wade, who leads the team in both scoring (16.5 PPG) and rebounding (6.3 RPG). The 6-10 junior has been a beast all year, finishing out the regular season with 24 and 25 points against TCU and Baylor, respectively. But he managed only 12 points in 41 minutes in a conference tournament win over TCU, and then sat out the next round in a loss to Kansas with a left foot injury. He's set to play against Creighton, but it's unclear just how healthy he'll be feeling. If State advances to play Virginia, he could be a terror in the middle of their defense. The Wildcats' other star, junior G Barry Brown, only played one minute against KU after being sidelined due to a Devonté Graham poke in the eye. But KSU head coach Bruce Weber appeared more confident about Brown playing at full strength than he did Wade this week. Brown can put the offense on his shoulders when necessary, such as when he scored 28 points in a late-February loss to Oklahoma. Then there's the supporting cast. G Kamau Stokes—also of that junior class is a hair above Brown in assists per game to lead the team in the category. He plays about eight fewer minutes per game than he did last season, but still needs to be counted on for this team to succeed. Sophomore F Makol Mawien is averaging fewer than 20 MPG on the season but he's scored at least 14 points in three straight games and exploded for 29 against Kansas. He also leads the team in blocks. Wade and freshman G Cartier Diarra are fourth and fifth, respectively, on the Wildcats in three-point attempts, but they're each at or above 40% from deep while none of the leading three shoot as well as even 34%. Sophomore F Xavier Sneed does a little bit of everything across the stat sheet, and could be an x-factor.

One of the best storylines in this first round of Madness is the story of star Creighton G Marcus Foster, who averaged 15.5 PPG as a freshman at Kansas State but was dismissed from the program after a burnout sophomore season. He instantly rediscovered his mojo once transferring and becoming a Bluejay, though, earning First Team All-Big East honors in each of his seasons at Creighton. This season he was fourth in the conference in points per game with 20.3, and shot a higher percentage from the floor (.490) and from three (.422) than any of the three players who scored more than him. He scored 28 points in a huge win over Villanova at the end of last month, proving he's the type of player whose play can launch a big-time upset. Second on the team in points is G Khyri Tomas (15.3 PPG), a formidable scorer in his own right. He had 24 in that Villanova win, and such a double-headed effort could give Virginia headaches if the Bluejays advance to Sunday's action. Gs Davion Mintz and Mitch Blalock average a combined 13 PPG, but they combined for double that in Creighton's Big East quarterfinal loss to Providence in overtime. Joining those four in the starting lineup was senior F Toby Hegner, who played the fewest minutes of the five with 23. Freshman C Jacob Epperson played 19 minutes off the bench. The front bench has been weakened since F Martin Krampelj, who was easily the team's leading rebounder, tore his ACL in mid-January.