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Falcons host Panthers in huge Sunday matchup
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 12/27/2017  at  4:54:00 PM
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CAROLINA PANTHERS (11-4)
at ATLANTA FALCONS (9-6)

Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Atlanta -4, Total: 45.5

Carolina's playing for playoff seeding, while Atlanta needs a win to ensure a playoff berth.

If the playoffs began today, the Carolina Panthers would be the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs. Even if they lose in Atlanta on Sunday, that five spot is the lowest they'll finish in the conference standings. They do, however, have room to move up. With a win, though, they could advance as high as the No. 2 seed (and a first-round bye) with some help around the league, or also end up in the No. 3 or 4 seeds. Atlanta, on the other hand, has a little bit more on the line. They'll lock up the No. 6 seed if they can knock off the Panthers, but will be spending the postseason at home if they lose and Seattle beats Arizona on Sunday afternoon. Playing at home, Seattle is nearly a double-digit favorite. Over the last 10 seasons, home favorites with winning percentages between .510 and .600 that have won two out of their last three games (ATL) are 29-6 ATS against teams with winning records. Since 1983, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with winning percentages between .600 and .750 that are coming off two consecutive home wins (CAR) are 53-24 ATS. Over the last 10 seasons, December games featuring a team coming off a loss of 10 points or more to a division rival (ATL) are 79-34 Under against the total.

Everyone was a little too excited to write off Carolina QB Cam Newton during his season-long Super Bowl hangover in 2016, but he's come back this season to show that he's still one of the NFL's best at the position. In an offense without many weapons, he has used both his arm and his leg to grit out some tough victories for the Panthers this year. Admittedly, though, his stats aren't all that impressive. He's 26th in the league with a 60.5 completion percentage and 22nd with 6.82 yards per attempt. But he's also 22nd among all players, and first among quarterbacks, with 695 rushing yards. Those nearly 50 yards per game on the ground—and the mere threat of more—open up all parts of the offense for Carolina. Rookie RB Christian McCaffrey's game has a similar effect, as he can do damage both running and catching the football. His 611 receiving yards are second most on the team, as are his five receiving touchdowns, and his 421 rushing yards mean he has topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. Veteran RB Jonathan Stewart is hit-or-miss depending on the game script, but his total stats in Carolina's last two games amount to an underwhelming 46 yards on 18 carries. WR Devin Funchess is Newton's No. 1 receiver out wide, and while he's had a strong year that doesn't say great things about the receiving corps. Fortunately, TE Greg Olsen is back in the lineup after an extended absence due to injury. He broke out two weeks ago with nine catches for 116 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay.

The departure of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and, one imagines, PTSD from the Super Bowl means QB Matt Ryan hasn't come close to reaching to same level of his MVP season from 2016. His 19-12 TD-INT ratio for the year is far from gorgeous, but he's otherwise remained one of the most dependable signal-callers in the NFL, if not a consistent engineer of big plays. His 7.81 yards per attempt are seventh in the league, and his 64.9 completion percentage is 10th. His 288 passing yards against the Saints last week were the most he's had in four December games to this point, but goal-line incompetence and a weird interception doomed the offense to only 13 points in a loss. WR Julio Jones had 149 receiving yards in that one, and he's third in receiving yards for the year, but his three touchdown receptions in 2017 are quite disappointing given his strength, size, and soft hands. One can't help but think he could be lobbed the ball a bit more often in red zone situations. WR Mohamed Sanu is on pace to top his 2016 numbers as an excellent No. 2 wideout, although WR Taylor Gabriel has faded a bit as the No. 3. TE Austin Hooper, meanwhile, has stepped forward in his sophomore campaign as an occasional playmaker. But the pass game also heavily features the team's two premier running backs, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Freeman, the lead runner, has seen his numbers drop this season due to injuries and the general decline of the offense, but he still can produce like a No. 1 when Atlanta allows him to get into a rhythm. Coleman has topped 600 rushing yards for the first time in his three-year career, and he now feels more like an integral part of every drive rather than a secret weapon. Whether or not that's a good thing is unclear.


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