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Warriors, Spurs meet in Game 4 on Monday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 5/22/2017  at  9:24:00 AM
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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (78-15)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (69-28)

Tip-off: Monday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -12, Total: 216

The Warriors will be going for a sweep when they face the Spurs in Game 4 on Monday.

The Western Conference playoffs may mercifully be coming to an end on Monday night, as the Golden State Warriors will look to complete their sweep of the West with a Game 4 victory in San Antonio. The Warriors are 11-0 in these playoffs (7-4 ATS) and up 3-0 on the Spurs (2-1 ATS) after a 120-108 triumph in Game 3 on Saturday night (GSW -9). It was certainly a closer contest than the 136-100 slaughter on display in Game 2 (GSW -13.5), but Golden State was clearly in control down the stretch. And while many considered a sweep a possibility entering this series, it has looked closer to a certainty since Spurs SF Kawhi Leonard suffered an injury in the second half of Game 1. He is questionable for Game 4, and PF David Lee is expected to miss the game. PG Tony Parker is out for the playoffs after a quad injury he sustained in the second round against Houston. Over the last five years, teams coming off two consecutive covers as favorites (GSW) are 30-60 ATS against opponents coming off a home loss of 10 points or more. On the other hand, road favorites that have scored at least 105 points in three straight games (GSW) are 298-210 ATS since 1996. For the Warriors, PG Stephen Curry is probable to play and C Zaza Pachulia is questionable.

Warriors SF Kevin Durant (24.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 BPG; all player stats are for playoffs) was the star of the show in Game 3, showcasing the ruthless efficiency with which he’s played all season in scoring 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting, and adding 10 rebounds, four assists and two steals in a game-high 38 minutes. He was also strong in the Warriors’ Game 1 win with 34 points on 21 shots. Without Leonard to guard him, he has an awful lot of room to do what he wants against this Spurs team. PG Stephen Curry (27.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 2.1 SPG) had 21 points on 15 shots, and was incredibly disruptive on defense with six steals. Despite shooting less often than last postseason (17.9 FGA from 18.8), Curry is shooting better (49.2 FG% from 43.8%) and scoring more (27.9 PPG from 25.1). No one really knows how Curry feels about sharing the spotlight with Durant, but it has made him a more effective player in these playoffs. SG Klay Thompson (14.8 PPG) scored 17, his most of the series thus far. He is shooting only 39.6% from the field this postseason. If there were an award for best defensive player of the playoffs, PF Draymond Green (13.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 7.1 APG, 1.9 SPG, 2.3 BPG) would be the winner in a landslide. C JaVale McGee (7.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG) somehow scored 16 points in only 13 minutes in Game 3.

The Spurs are +21 with Leonard (27.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.7 SPG) on the floor in this series, which represents the first half and a bit of the third quarter of Game 1, before he was injured. Without him on the floor, the Spurs would appear unlikely to be able to compete—he’s easily their best player on either end. The necessity of his presence is especially the case if PF LaMarcus Aldridge (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG) is unable to step up. He had 18 points on 17 shots, but only five rebounds and a -27 plus/minus that was a game-worst by seven points. He also allowed a team-worst 18 points as a primary defender. SG Jonathon Simmons (10.4 PPG) scored 14 points in Game 3 on Aldridge’s same 7-of-17 shooting line. He was 0-for-4 from three, and the Spurs as a team were 5-for-21. In a game where the Spurs trailed by single digits at a couple points in the fourth quarter, a better shooting night could have made the difference. No other Spurs starter scored in double digits. SG Manu Ginobili (6.1 PPG) somehow continues to play at a high level, as he scored 21 points on 7-of-9 shooting in G3. C Pau Gasol (7.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and PG Dejounte Murray (5.4 PPG, 1.1 SPG) scored 12 and 10 points, respectively. Gasol had 10 boards, as well.


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