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Desperate Rockets host Spurs in Game 6 Thursday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 5/11/2017  at  11:06:00 AM
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS (68-25)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (61-31)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -6.5, Total: 213.5

It’s win or stay home for the Rockets in Game 6 on Thursday night in Houston.

Basketball fans were finally treated to a close game on Tuesday night in the Western Conference Semifinals series between the Rockets and Spurs, as San Antonio triumphed 110-107 in overtime as 5.5-point home favorites to take a 3-2 lead in the series. While every game has began with a spread between five and six points, the Rockets won Games 1 and 4 by an average of 24 points and the Spurs won Games 2 and 3 by an average of 18 points. With their season on the line, Houston will likely enter Game 6 at home on Thursday night as the largest favorites of either team for any game in this series. Part of the reason for that is the questionable health of Spurs star SF Kawhi Leonard, who sprained his left ankle late in regulation and sat out overtime. One assumes that Leonard will at least give it a go on Thursday, but the degree to which he is healthy will impact the outcome one way or another. Since 1996, teams coming off a straight-up loss as an underdog (HOU) are 43-88 ATS in games involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. In the same timeframe, second-round playoff games are 92-42 Over against totals of 210 or higher. Each team has lost one key player to a season-ending injury in this series: C Nenê for Houston and PG Tony Parker for the Spurs. Leonard is listed as questionable.

One third-quarter sequence illustrated the full scope of what Leonard (27.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 SPG; all player stats are for playoffs) does for this Spurs lineup. He switched off from James Harden to Trevor Ariza on defense, and when Ariza dumped the ball down to Clint Capela for a seemingly open dunk, Leonard dropped down and stuffed the shot attempt. After quickly catching an outlet pass he dribbled down the court, Leonard glided past Harden and finished with an up-and-under reverse layup. Known as he is for his defensive prowess—and this play showed off his essential versatility on that end—he may actually be more important to his team on offense. While the Spurs play with great ball movement, no one other than Leonard can really create his own shot; look no other than PF LaMarcus Aldridge’s (15.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG) failure to post up the much smaller Harden. With Leonard out in overtime, though, San Antonio’s other wings stepped up enough to secure the win. SG Danny Green (7.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG) scored seven of his 16 points on the night in the extra period, including multiple go-ahead baskets in the game’s final minute. SG Manu Ginobili (4.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG) scored 12 points on the night and blocked Harden’s would-be game-tying three-pointer as time expired. PG Patty Mills (10.9 PPG) had 20 points, and appears to be fully comfortable as the team’s lead point guard with Parker out. Aldridge had 18 points (on 21 shots) and 14 rebounds, and SG Jonathon Simmons (7.9 PPG) had 12 off the bench. Leonard had a game-high 15 rebounds, just another element of his game that will be missed if he’s not at full health.

His 4-for-15 three-point shooting and nine turnovers notwithstanding, Harden (30.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 8.6 APG, 2.0 SPG) had an excellent Game 5, scoring 33 points on 11-of-24 shooting and hitting a triple-double with 10 rebounds and 10 assists. He would certainly benefit from a hobbled Leonard, as not having to deal with the NBA’s best perimeter defender would make it easier for Harden to both find his own shot and create clean ones for his teammates. That includes SG Eric Gordon (13.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG), a Sixth Man of the Year candidate who moved into the starting lineup for Game 5 in the wake of Nenê’s injury. In fact, the rotation was shortened considerably, as Mike D’Antoni played only seven players in G5. (It’s hard to tell whether that represented a strategic shift or a strategy that had been rendered irrelevant due to blowouts throughout the series). Gordon wasn’t great, scoring 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting and 1-of-6 three-point shooting. SG Lou Williams (13.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG) was also cold off the bench, scoring six points on 3-of-10 shooting and 0-of-5 three-point shooting. PF Ryan Anderson (10.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG), picked up some of the slack, scoring 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting, and SF Trevor Ariza (9.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG) had nine points and eight rebounds. Not normally considered one of the team’s many marksmen, PG Patrick Beverley (11.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.6 SPG) made five of seven threes en route to 20 points. C Clint Capela (10.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.7 BPG) had nine points and 11 rebounds, but looked exhausted by the end of his 34 minutes on the court.


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