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Rockets, Spurs meet in Game 3 on Friday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 5/4/2017  at  9:15:00 PM
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS (66-24)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (60-29)

Tip-off: Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -4.5, Total: 215

How will San Antonio adjust to Tony Parker’s season-ending injury in Game 3?

While we are yet to see a tightly contested game two games into the Western Conference Semifinals between the Rockets and the Spurs, we certainly have a series on our hands after the teams split two matchups in San Antonio. The first was a Rockets blowout, as they dominated on the road in a 126-99 bludgeoning despite entering the contest as six-point underdogs. Nonetheless, the Spurs once again entered Game 2 on Wednesday night as six-point favorites, and this time they delivered—and then some—with a 121-96 win. But while Game 1 was a blowout all the way through, the Spurs didn’t pull away until the fourth quarter in their G2 victory; they had entered the final period with a five-point lead before winning that frame 33-13. It wasn’t all sunshine for the Spurs, though, as PG Tony Parker’s season was ended by a ruptured quadriceps in that same fourth quarter. Rockets SG James Harden is listed as probable for Friday’s Game 3 in Houston, although there is little actual doubt that the star will play. Since 1996, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 looking to revenge a loss of at least 20 points to a division rival (HOU) are 52-21 ATS. (Notice that San Antonio delivered on that very same trend in their Game 2 victory.)

While Spurs SF Kawhi Leonard (30.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.9 SPG; all players stats are playoffs) didn’t struggle as greatly as his teammates in Game 1, he was certainly subdued with a 21-point performance. No one’s remembering that, though, as Leonard looked like the best player in basketball in Game 2. He scored 34 points on near-perfect 13-of-16 shooting, grabbed seven rebounds and dished out eight assists. As if that weren’t impressive enough, he spent half his game locking down Harden, holding the prolific scorer to 13 points on 3-of-17 shooting. He only committed two turnovers, which bodes well for the Spurs in the wake of Parker’s (15.9 PPG, 3.1 APG) injury; Leonard will likely adopt a portion of his ball-handling duties. PG Patty Mills (9.4 PPG) will slide into his spot in the starting lineup. He was already the Spurs fourth-leading scorer this postseason playing behind Parker, shooting 48.5% from deep on 4.1 attempts per game. Rookie PG Dejounte Murray (2.3 PPG) or SG Kyle Anderson (4.3 PPG) will see increased minutes as Mills’ backup. After a brutal Game 1, PF LaMarcus Aldridge (13.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG) put up 15 points and eight boards in Game 2. C Pau Gasol (6.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) had only six points but was dominant inside with 13 rebounds and four blocks. SG Jonathon Simmons (6.1 PPG) was brilliant in scoring 14 points in 20 minutes in Game 2, and you can expect to see him getting more minutes throughout the rest of the series.

While Leonard improved from Game 1 to Game 2, Harden (28.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 8.4 APG, 2.0 SPG) did the exact opposite. He couldn’t have shot worse from the field, and his 10 assists and seven rebounds were little consolation for the scoring lapse. He appeared healed from a Round 1 ankle injury when the Rockets offense was thriving in Game 1, but it seems now that he’s definitely not fully healed. As Harden goes, so go the Rockets, and they’ll need him to be effective if they have a shot at winning this series. PF Ryan Anderson (9.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.6 SPG) and SG Eric Gordon (13.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG) were the team’s two leading scorers with 18 and 15 points, respectively, but they also posted the team’s two worst plus-minuses with -26 and -25. Anderson has been great on offense in both games so far, and he was great guarding Aldridge in the post in Game 1. In Game 2, though, the Spurs exploited his lack of mobility by matching him up with quicker players, and he got destroyed by the San Antonio wings. After a breakout 23-point Game 1, SF Trevor Ariza (8.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG) regressed to the mean in Game 2, scoring a mere two points and going 0-for-4 from deep. PG Patrick Beverley (11.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.6 SPG) had 12 points, but more important is his role on defense. If he’s matched up with non-Leonard ball-handlers going forward like Mills or SG Manu Ginobili, his bulldog-like intensity could force turnovers more than he would against Parker.


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