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Warriors, Jazz kick off Western Conference Semis
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 5/1/2017  at  11:51:00 AM
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UTAH JAZZ (55-34)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (71-15)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -13, Total: 208

The Warriors will look to remain undefeated this postseason in Game 1 against the Jazz.

Few will be holding their breath for a Jazz victory when Utah meets the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Semifinals series between the two teams that begins on Tuesday night. So few, in fact, that Vegas has set Utah at +1700 and the Warriors at -4000 to win the series. But as some raise the possibility of a 16-0 postseason run for Golden State this year, the Jazz will look to make things difficult, at the very least. The young roster took a big step in its development with a first-round victory over the Los Angeles Clippers, a series that concluded Sunday afternoon with a 104-91 Jazz triumph at Staples Center (UTA +3.5). They went 5-2 ATS in the series, losing Game 2, 99-91, against a nine-point spread after they lost C Rudy Gobert in Game 1. Gobert returned in the series’ latter half, though, and appeared to be playing at full capacity. The Warriors, meanwhile, will have had over a week off after completing a sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers last Monday with a 128-103 beatdown on the road (GSW -9). Golden State went 3-1 ATS in the series, only failing to cover a 15-point spread in a 12-point Game 1 win. This series will present a clash of styles, as the Jazz played the league’s slowest pace this season with 93.6 possessions per game and the Warriors played the fourth fastest at 102.2. Golden State went 2-1 against Utah this regular season (1-2 ATS), most recently falling, 105-99, to the Jazz at home (UTA +10) on April 10 in their only loss of the month. Since 1996, favorites of at least 10 points that are outscoring their opponents by at least 9 PPG (GSW) are 15-45 ATS in Tuesday night games. Over the last five seasons, games involving a team that has won five or six of its last seven and playing no more than its fifth game in 14 days (GSW) are 70-31 Under against totals between 200 and 209.5. SG Alec Burks is expected to miss Game 1 with a knee injury.

The reason that Gobert’s (6.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.0 SPG; all stats in playoffs) stat line looks so underwhelming is that he played less than a minute before getting injured in Game 1 and only played 13 minutes in Game 7 before fouling out, finishing with one point and four rebounds in that contest. But in Games 4 through 6 he averaged 13.7 PPG, 11 RPG, 2.3 SPG and 2.0 BPG and looked more or less like the dominant inside player that he developed into this year. Whether the big man is able to keep up with the uptempo Warriors’ offense will largely determine how much damage Utah can do in this series. SF Gordon Hayward (23.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG) looked like a star in Round 1, scoring a career-high 40 points in Game 3 and at least 26 points in each of the series’ final three games. He figures to be Utah’s go-to guy this round, as well. 35-year-old SF Joe Johnson (15.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.0 APG) played a surprisingly big role on offense against the Clippers, scoring 21 points and 28 points in victories in Game 1 and Game 4, respectively. The emphasis on Iso Joe may partially explain George Hill’s (16.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.7 APG) small assist numbers as the team’s point guard, but he was strong offensively with a 48.3% shooting percentage in the first round. SG Rodney Hood (10.4 PPG), PF Derrick Favors (10.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG) and SF Joe Ingles (6.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 SPG) also play key roles.

It’s likely that no one is happier about the Warriors’ week off than SF Kevin Durant (21.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG), who missed Games 2 and 3 against the Trail Blazers with a left calf sprain. It’s a different injury than the MCL sprain that kept him out for several weeks late in the regular season, but it is on the same leg and could certainly be related. He scored 10 points in 20 minutes in Game 4, and didn’t need to push a minutes limit thanks to the blowout. Of course, as the sweep implies, the Warriors didn’t miss his services too much. PG Stephen Curry (29.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.5 APG, 2.0 SPG) was lights out from three-point range in the series, making 42.2% from deep on 11.3 attempts per game. He had 34 and 37 points in Games 2 and 3, respectively, on 12-for-25 total three-point shooting. SG Klay Thompson (18.3 PPG, 1.0 SPG) also shot well from three at 39.3% despite chasing around Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. While he’ll likely spend some time on Hayward, his defensive responsibilities should be generally easier this round. PF Draymond Green (13.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.5 APG, 1.8 SPG, 4.3 BPG) will spend some time on pretty much everyone in the Jazz’s lineup. He further cemented his reputation as the best defender in the league with an incredible 18 blocks in four games against Portland. SF Andre Iguodala (7.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.5 APG) played 30 minutes per game in Round 1 thanks partially to Durant’s absence, but he’s one of the Dubs’ most important players regardless.


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