StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Spurs host Grizzlies in Game 1 on Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 4/28/2017  at  8:00:00 PM
  Print This Article    

HOUSTON ROCKETS (59-28)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (65-23)

Tip-off: Monday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: N/A, Total: N/A

The Rockets will be looking to steal Game 1 on the road against the Spurs on Monday.

Houston is coming off of a relatively easy series victory over Oklahoma City, as the Rockets came away with the win in only five games. The only contest that the Rockets dropped was a 115-113 loss in Oklahoma City in Game 3. And while they did not play their best basketball throughout the series, the team should be satisfied with not getting stretched to six or seven games. The same cannot be said for the Spurs, who beat the Grizzlies in a hard fought six-game series. San Antonio was very close to being pushed to seven, as the Spurs trailed by double digits at one point in the second half of Game 6 in Memphis. They did come back to win that game, but they are definitely going to be the more exhausted team when these two meet on Monday. It is worth noting that in four regular season matchups between these teams, the Spurs came away with three victories SU and the teams split wins ATS. San Antonio has, however, dominated Houston over the years, going 8-2 SU in the past 10 matchups. The Spurs are also 15-5 SU in their past 20 games when playing the Rockets at AT&T Center.

The Rockets are hoping to upset the Spurs and advance to the Western Conference Finals, and they’ll definitely want to take control of the series with a win in Game 1. If that is going to happen then SG James Harden (33.2 PPG, 7.0 APG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG; all stats in playoffs) needs to be more efficient than he was against Oklahoma City. Harden put up his usual big stat lines in that series, but he shot just 41.1% from the floor and 24.0% from three. He has had his struggles in the postseason in the past, but he must battle those demons here. If he doesn’t figure it out against the Spurs then his team has almost no chance of winning this game or the series. SF Trevor Ariza (6.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG) is also going to need to be a lot better than he was last series. Ariza shot just 18.8% from three last series, and that is unacceptable for a guy that can shoot it like him. He needs to wake up offensively, but he’ll also need to play solid defense on Leonard. The Rockets will also be hoping for more from PF Ryan Anderson (7.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG). Anderson signed a huge deal with Houston last summer and was a complete disappointment in the first round. If he doesn’t provide some scoring help for Harden then this series could be over fast. Luckily Harden does have guys like SGs Lou Williams (18.8 PPG) and Eric Gordon (13.6 PPG) to help pick up the slack.

The Spurs are coming off of a rough series with the Grizzlies, but they were able to advance and are now one series victory away from a likely meeting with the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. This isn’t going to be easy for San Antonio, though. Houston is one of the most potent offensive teams in basketball, and the Spurs need to be ready to score in this one. Fortunately for this team, SF Kawhi Leonard (31.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.0 SPG) had a coming out party against Memphis last round. Leonard was absolutely unstoppable, shooting 54.8% from the floor and 48.3% from three over the six games. He has finally developed the offensive game to go along with his league-best defense, and he will do everything he can to carry his team in this series. That could include a lot of time guarding James Harden, as the Spurs know they need to contain the lefty superstar. Leonard will, however, need more help from PF LaMarcus Aldridge (14.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG) in this series. Aldridge was awful in the final two games of the Grizzlies series, shooting just 12-for-30 from the floor. He kept missing layups and dunks against Memphis in Game 6, and San Antonio needs him to get back into a groove on Monday. Fortunately for the Spurs, he does have a history of success against the Rockets in the playoffs. His combination of size and skill gives them big problems, and a big Game 1 performance is likely on tap.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: