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Celtics face Bulls in Game 6 Friday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 4/28/2017  at  10:43:00 AM
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BOSTON CELTICS (56-31)

at CHICAGO BULLS (43-44)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -2.5, Total: 203.5

A rejuvenated Celtics team looks to eliminate the Bulls in Game 6 on the road on Friday.

Things looked grim for the No. 1 Boston Celtics after the first two games of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series with the No. 8 seed Chicago Bulls, as the Celtics dropped each of them at home—and the second wasn’t even close. Boston has since bounced back, though, taking the next two games in Chicago and then winning on their home court for the first time in these playoffs in Game 5, pulling away in the fourth quarter for a 108-97 (BOS -7.5). The Celtics did it despite shooting only 9-of-40 from three-point range, a series of misses that included many wide open looks. They also matched the Bulls with 45 rebounds in the game, a category that plagued them in their early-series losses. Over the last five seasons, road favorites averaging at least 83 shots per game but getting outrebounded by at least three boards per game (BOS) are 79-45 ATS. In the same timeframe, games involving a home team with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 that has gone Under the total by at least 18 combined points in their last three games are 97-53 Under against totals of at least 200. Chicago PG Rajon Rondo has been out since Game 3 and he remains out for Game 6.

Since the series began, Celtics PG Isaiah Thomas (25.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.6 APG, 1.0 SPG; all player stats in playoffs), has had to play through grief as he mourns the sudden death of his younger sister. He has played remarkably well considering that fact, still regularly delivering the scoring that has carried this Boston team all season. He scored 24 points in Game 5, and also delivered some surprisingly effective defensive plays in crunch time. He’s only shooting 21% on heavy-volume three-point shooting in this series, suggesting his production could jump significantly if he can find the range from deep. SG Avery Bradley (14.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.6 SPG) scored a playoff career-high 24 points in Game 5 to go along with six rebounds. He carried the offense early on by shooting 8-of-13 in the first half. He has been strong defensively on Bulls star Jimmy Butler, despite giving up a good amount of size. C Al Horford (16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 6.4 APG, 1.4 SPG) was also excellent on Wednesday with an impressive line of 21 points, nine assists and seven rebounds. C Kelly Olynyk (9.4 PPG, 1.2 SPG) chipped in a playoff career-high 14 points. SF Jae Crowder (12.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG) has struggled mightily on offense this series, shooting 22.2% from three, which is where he made his living during the regular season. PF Amir Johnson (3.7 PPG) was a DNP-CD in Games 4 and 5 and likely won’t be seen for the rest of this series.

Thriving when getting help from unlikely sources in the series’ first two games, Butler (22.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 1.0 BPG) appears to now be struggling to carry the weight of this undermanned Chicago offense. He scored 33 points in Game 4 largely thanks to earning 23 free throw attempts, but he shot only one free throw in Games 3 and 5 combined and scored 14 points in each of those games. If the Bulls want to pull off a win in Game 6, he’ll likely need to score 25+ to make it happen—either that, or some of the aforementioned unlikely sources will need to step back up. PF Bobby Portis (7.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG) scored 19 points in Game 1, but has only averaged 4.0 PPG in his four games since. SF Paul Zipser (7.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG) had 16 points in Game 2 and 10 points in Game 3, but he only scored five total points between Games 4 and 5. PF Nikola Mirotic (9.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG) can damage the Celtics if he’s hitting from three, but his 28.1% mark on the series won’t cut it. As far as bright spots, C Robin Lopez (13.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and SG Dwyane Wade (17.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.6 BPG) have had great series. Lopez is shooting 67.4% from the floor, and his size advantage in the post has forced the Celtics to crash the defensive glass, thereby limiting their transition opportunities. Wade nearly notched a triple-double in Game 5 with 26 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Admittedly, his defense leaves something to be desired at this point in his career.


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