Tip-off: Thursday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -4, Total: 190

Memphis needs another home win to stay alive against the Spurs.

After the first two games of the Western Conference Quarterfinals series between the Spurs and Grizzlies, the Spurs appeared in complete control and perhaps headed for a sweep. The Grizzlies were blown out of the building 111-82 in Game 1 (SAS -9) and didn’t fare all that much better in a 96-82 Game 2 defeat (SAS -10.5). But, after a David Fizdale press conference rant after that loss, the Grizz came out with renewed energy on their home floor, taking Game 3 105-94 (MEM +3.5) and Game 4 110-108 (MEM +5). The Spurs regained the lead in a pivotal Game 5 back in San Antonio, putting up their largest scoring total in over a month with a 116-103 triumph (SAS -10.5). One strong pattern has emerged in the nine games this season between these Southwest Division rivals: The home team has won every single one. Over the last five seasons, road favorites averaging at least 102 PPG and having posted combined scores of at least 215 in at least two straight games (SAS) are 16-40 ATS against teams allowing between 98 and 102 points per game. Since 1996, games involving a team that has seen both teams score at least 100 points in its last two games and a team that has played in two straight games with a combined score of 205 are 49-21 Over against totals between 190 and 199.5. Memphis SG Tony Allen remains out indefinitely.

The NBA’s second-best team in the regular season featured only one player who received an All-Star bid, but boy did SF Kawhi Leonard (31.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) earn it. He has been shown off his remarkable efficiency in a big way in this series, shooting 57.6% from the floor, 54.2% from three and 97.9% from the free throw line on 9.6 free throw attempts per game, the fifth most in the playoffs. He took 30 shots in scoring 43 points in the loss in Game 4, but has attempted between 11 and 16 shots in each of the series’ other four games. PG Tony Parker (14.4 PPG in playoffs) clearly left something in the tank from the regular season, as he is shooting over three more shots per game in this series than he did over the year. Both he and SG Manu Ginobili (2.0 PPG, 1.4 SPG in playoffs) both would figure to be at the tail end of their careers, but Parker is the one making a real difference in this series. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (14.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG in playoffs) isn’t blowing anyone away as Leonard’s sidekick, but is shooting 46.6% from the floor and is getting the job done. PF David Lee (5.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG in playoffs) and SG Danny Green (5.6 PPG, 1.2 BPG in playoffs) have rounded out the starting lineup in the last two games, with Green playing key perimeter defense but only shooting 26.3% on his signature three-point shot.

PG Mike Conley (24.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) has carried a heavy load for the Grizzlies in this series, leading the team in points and assists by a significant margin—and steals, too. He was quiet with 13 points in Game 1 but has scored at least 24 in each game since. His masterpiece came in Memphis’ narrow Game 4 victory, when he approached a triple-double with 35 points on 13-of-23 shooting, nine rebounds and eight assists. Another couple dominant outings from Conley is the Grizzlies’ best shot at forcing a Game 7 and, if they’re able to do that, advancing to the next round. C Marc Gasol’s numbers (19.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.8 APG in playoffs) closely match those from his regular season, although he has somewhat toned down the three-point shooting that defined his regular season, shooting 2.0 per game in this series versus 3.6 during the year. He’s been effective out there, though, at 60% in these five games. After spending the regular season coming off the bench for basically the first time, PF Zach Randolph (13.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.0 SPG in playoffs) has been in the starting lineups for the last three games of this series. He was instrumental in a must-win Game 3 victory, posting 21 points and eight rebounds. He’s not the only old-timer starting, as SG Vince Carter (8.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG in playoffs) has been on the floor for tip-off in all five. SF James Ennis III (7.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG in playoffs) starts as well, while PF JaMychal Green (7.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG in playoffs) and PG Andrew Harrison (6.6 PPG, 2.6 APG in playoffs) get key bench minutes.