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Rockets look to finish off Thunder on Tuesday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 4/25/2017  at  10:36:00 AM
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OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (48-38)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (58-28)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -7.5, Total: 222

Down 3-1, it’s already win-or-go-home time for Russell Westbrook and the Thunder.

Leading by a 77-73 margin at home entering the fourth quarter of Game 4 of their series with the Rockets, the Oklahoma City Thunder looked primed to tie the series at two games apiece. Instead, they lost by a 40-32 margin in the game’s final frame to fall 113-109 (HOU +1.5) and trail three games to one in the series. They now face a must-win Game 5 in Houston on Tuesday night, a matchup that the Rockets enter as significant favorites. While they forced more turnovers than they committed and outshot the Rockets from both three-point land and the floor overall, OKC has to be haunted by an 18-of-32 free throw performance that largely cost them the ability to tie up the series. Since 1996, home teams with season-long point differentials between +3 and +7 PPG that have scored at least 110 points in two straight games (HOU) are 40-12 against spreads between 3.5 and 9.5 when playing against teams with point differentials between -3 and +3. Favoring the Thunder, though, is a trend stating that, over the last five seasons, favorites coming off a win of six points or fewer (HOU) are 42-80 ATS against an opponent that has seen its last three games reach a combined score of at least 205 points. Houston SG James Harden will play through an ankle injury that he sustained late in Game 3.

There’s no doubt that Oklahoma City PG Russell Westbrook (35.0 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 11.3 APG, 3.0 SPG in playoffs) is doing things we’ve never seen before; the question is whether his hero-ball-to-the-extreme style of play is benefitting his team more than a conventional style of play would. Westbrook had a triple-double by halftime in Game 4 and his team led by four points. He finished with 35 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists. He took (and missed) some ridiculous shots down the stretch, but also nailed a three late to cut the lead to one. In Game 2, he scored 51 points but shot 4-of-18 in the fourth quarter. In Game 4, Houston coach Mike D’Antoni got way too much mileage out of a hack-a-Andre Roberson (13.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 3.5 BPG in playoffs), as the OKC small forward went 2-of-12 from the line in Game 5. He’s a strong defender and has shot 59% from the floor in this series, but his utter incompetence at the line makes him a total liability. C Steven Adams (8.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.3 BPG in playoffs) had his best offensive game of the series in G4, scoring 18 points to go with seven boards and three blocks. Roberson had 13 points, and SG Victor Oladipo (11.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) rounded out the team’s double-digit scorers with 15 points. C Enes Kanter (6.0 PPG in playoffs) is only averaging 10.5 MPG in this series due to his defensive inabilities, which is unfortunate as Westbrook sure could use his help on offense.

Harden (33.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 7.8 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) had easily his worst game of the series in Game 4, putting up 16 points, eight assists and seven rebounds but adding seven turnovers and an 0-for-7 shooting performance from three. In his postgame on-court interview, he told the television reporter that his play was greatly hampered by the aforementioned injured ankle, an injury that no one had heard about to that point. It made sense, as he was visibly out of sorts in Game 4, and all eyes will be on his movement and shooting abilities going forward. The injury may not sabotage the Rockets in this series now that they have a 3-1 lead, but it’s hard to imagine Houston winning another one without their do-everything player at full health. The real star for the Rockets in Game 4 was C Nene Hilario (13.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG in playoffs), who torched Adams for 28 points on 12-for-12 shooting. He was a +24 in 25 minutes, while starting C Clint Capela (7.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG in playoffs) was a -25 in 18 minutes. Nene added 10 rebounds, as well. Sharpshooting SGs Eric Gordon (15.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) and Lou Williams (18.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in playoffs) each scored 18 points off the bench in Game 4 and, more impressively, combined to pull down 15 rebounds. PG Patrick Beverley (10.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.0 SPG in playoffs) had a tough night shooting (2-for-13 FG), but he continued to make his presence felt on the defensive end of the floor with five steals.


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