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Hawks look to even up series on Monday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 4/24/2017  at  11:24:00 AM
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WASHINGTON WIZARDS (51-34)

at ATLANTA HAWKS (44-41)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Atlanta -2.5, Total: 211.5

Atlanta looks to tie up their series with Washington at home in Game 4.

The Atlanta Hawks stepped up in a must-win Game 3 of their first round series against the Washington Wizards on Saturday, dominating from the tip in a 116-98 win (ATL -2.5) to grab their first victory of the series. The game was essentially over early on, as the Hawks took a 38-20 lead by the end of the first quarter, and their lead never got smaller than 13 points in the second half. After having dropped Game 1 and Game 2 in Washington by seven and eight points, respectively, Atlanta clearly looked more comfortable on their home court. They’ll enter Game 4 as slight favorites as they look to even up the series on Monday before it heads back to D.C. on Wednesday. Over the last five seasons, home teams with a winning record playing only their second game in five days are 90-59 ATS against other winning teams when the line is between +3 and -3. In the same timeframe, games involving a team that shoots at least 36.5% from three and turns the ball over no more than 14.5 times per game (WAS) and a team that allows between 33 and 36.5% three-point shooting and forces between 14.5 and 16.5 turnovers per game (ATL) are 113-71 Under against totals of 200 or more 42+ games into the year. Atlanta PF Ersan Ilyasova and Washington SF Otto Porter are both considered probable to play on Monday night.

PF Paul Millsap (25.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) has been the go-to guy for the Hawks all season long, and things were no different when he starred in Game 3. Millsap finished with 29 points, 14 rebounds, five assists and two blocks in a team-high 33 minutes that still represented good rest for a star player in a playoff game. He put up 27 and 10 in Game 2, so he is clearly rolling. He may have some extra motivation, as him and Wizards forward Markieff Morris have exchanged some jabs through reporters; Morris called Millsap a “crybaby.” Also taking on the scoring load for the Hawks has been PG Dennis Schroder (25.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 8.0 APG, 1.0 SPG). He has scored at least 23 points in each of the series’ three games, but had his series high on Saturday with 27 points to go with nine assists. He’s getting more assists in the postseason (up to 8.0 from 6.3 on the regular season) and turning the ball over less (down to 2.0 from 3.3). Rookie SF Taurean Prince (14.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG), who only took on a significant role with the team late in the regular season, is the third-leading playoff scorer for Atlanta to this point. With 16 points in Game 3, he joined Millsap and Schroder as the team’s only double-digit scorers. 12 players on the team scored at least one point in the blowout victory.

While his -24 +/- would suggest otherwise, Wizards PG John Wall (31.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 10.0 APG, 1.0 SPG) had a strong game on Saturday. He scored 29 points on near-impeccable 10-of-12 shooting and added seven of his team’s 16 assists. (The Hawks had 26). He is fifth in the league in scoring this postseason, with his 32 points in Game 2 being a playoff career high for him. He is also third in assists, trailing only Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul. And while he is shooting 55.4% from the floor and has made five of seven threes, his sidekick, SG Bradley Beal (21.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.0 SPG) has struggled from the field. He is shooting 39.7% in the series and is 6-for-27 from three, including a 2-for-11 performance in Game 1 and an 0-for-6 dud in Game 3. He’s still scoring around his regular season averaging (23.1 PPG), though, and one imagines his percentages will improve from this small sample size. Porter (7.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.0 SPG) made himself valuable through efficiency this season, but is only 40% from the field in this series. Morris (11.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.7 BPG) has made more headlines with his mouth than his play thus far, and he might’ve been better off not saying anything after scoring nine points on 4-of-14 shooting in Game 3. He did have a strong Game 1 with 21 points and four blocks. Marcin Gortat (10.0 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) had a five-block performance in Game 2, but he managed only two points in 29 minutes in Game 3.


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