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Celtics host Bulls in Game 1 on Sunday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 4/15/2017  at  3:30:00 PM
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CHICAGO BULLS (41-41)

at BOSTON CELTICS (53-29)

Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Eastern Conference Playoffs – Round 1
Line: Boston -7.5, Total: 207.5

The Celtics will look to prove the validity of their No. 1 seed against the Bulls in Game 1 on Sunday.

Few at the beginning of the season expected the Celtics to surpass the Cavaliers for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference standings—even few Celtics players, probably—but here they are at No. 1 after going 53-29 on the year (40-40-2 ATS). Some have questioned whether they’re the worst top seed of all time, and it’s not an invalid idea, although it’s more of a criticism of the East than it is Boston. Such a criticism is well-embodied by the Chicago Bulls, a listless, boring team that is pretty bad at basketball but nonetheless snuck into the postseason at 41-41 (42-40-0 ATS). The team split their four-game season series, although two of those contests took place within the first few nights of the season. Most recently, Boston beat Chicago 100-80 at home (BOS -7.5) about a month ago on a Sunday afternoon, a game in which the Bulls only managed nine first quarter points. Over the last five seasons, underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road blowout loss of at least 20 points are 4-32 ATS against opponents coming off a home win in which they scored at least 110 points. (Boston beat Milwaukee 112-94 in their regular season finale.) Since 1996, Sunday games involving a team that has gone Under the total by at least 30 points in their last three games combined (CHI) are 160-104 Under against totals of 200 or more. Celtics SG Avery Bradley is considered probable to play on Saturday with a hand injury.

The Bulls are led by SF Jimmy Butler (23.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.9 SPG) on both ends of the floor. He was solid in the 2014-15 playoffs, averaging 22.9 PPG on 44.1% shooting after averaging 20.0 PPG in that regular season. He averaged career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals this year, so he should be the go-to guy for just about everything as the Bulls look to upset the Celtics. A couple specific statistics from this team this season, though, call that somewhat into question: Butler was 32nd in the league with a usage rate of 26.6%, while veteran teammate SG Dwyane Wade (18.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.4 SPG) was 13th at 29.5% (in 60 games). Wade is, of course, a legend—he’s a three-time NBA champion and has averaged 22.8 PPG on 47.7% shooting in 166 career playoff games. That said, he’s 35 years old and is not currently as effective of a scorer as Butler. He can and should be taking big shots down the stretch of these games, but he should not be the No. 1 option. If he is, Chicago will not be the best version of itself as a team. One wild card to keep an eye on is PG Rajon Rondo (7.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.4 SPG), for whom the last few years have been quite rocky as far as his NBA career goes. He hasn’t played meaningful playoff minutes since 2012, but he earned a reputation in Boston as someone who shines brightest when the postseason comes around. Having undergone a resurgence late in the season (11.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 8.2 APG, 1.8 SPG), he seems primed to make big plays against the franchise with which he won the Larry O’Brien Trophy once upon a time.

The Celtics offense in 2016-17 has consisted primarily of PG Isaiah Thomas, Isaiah Thomas and more Isaiah Thomas (28.9 PPG, 5.9 APG). Thomas finished the regular season third in the league in scoring and fifth in usage rate (34.0%), maintaining a 46.3% mark from the field and shooting 37.9% from three despite being the obvious Celtics player for opposing defenses to focus on. While some have questioned his ability to raise his game in the playoffs, those questions don’t really hold up: He averaged 24.2 in six games against Atlanta last year, including 42 points in a thrilling Game 4. Bradley (16.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG) jammed his shooting hand in the Celtics’ regular season finale, but he appears ready to go. He’ll need to be, as he was second on the team in scoring, rebounding and steals this season. Along with Thomas’ development into an MVP candidate, the biggest difference between last year’s Celtics team and this year’s outfit is the presence of C Al Horford (14.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.26 BPG), who plays a Draymond Green-like role in facilitating the offense. He’s strong defensively, too, and the team has improved as a unit on D as he has meshed with the rest of the roster over the course of the year. SF Jae Crowder (13.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.0 SPG) will guard Butler most often, but PG Marcus Smart (10.6 RPG, 3.9 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.6 SPG) and rookie SF Jaylen Brown (6.6 PPG) should get each get a crack at him, as well. C Kelly Olynyk (9.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG) can be an offensive x-factor off the bench if he’s shooting well.


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