Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -9.5, Total: 206

The Heat need a win and some help if they want to sneak into the playoffs.

On the final night of the NBA season, the 40-41 Miami Heat (49-32 ATS) will look to somehow finish .500 on the 2016-17 campaign despite having started the year at 11-30. Even more astounding is the fact that they’ll have a chance to make the playoffs, provided they win and either the Bulls lose to Brooklyn or the Pacers lose to Atlanta. Miami has won three of its last four to get to this point, most recently having made a fourth quarter comeback to take down Cleveland 124-121 at home on Monday (CLE +10.5) to keep their postseason dream alive. Their opponent on Wednesday is the Washington Wizards, who are locked into the East’s No. 4 seed at 49-32 (41-39-1 ATS). The Wizards sat PG John Wall and SF Otto Porter Jr. in the team’s 105-101 victory at Detroit on Monday night (WAS +5.5), and one has to think they’ll be resting players against the Heat, as well. That said, while teams like the Cavaliers and Bucks have already announced the players they will be resting on Wednesday night, there has been no news out of Washington as of Wednesday morning. Over the last five seasons, road teams that have allowed 100 points in four straight games (WAS) are 73-38 ATS against opponents coming off a win of six points or fewer. In the same timeframe, games involving a team revenging two straight losses in which their opponent scored at least 100 points (Miami has actually beat Washington all three times the teams have played this season and scored 100+ in each of them) and coming off a win as an underdog are 159-94 Under against the total. Miami has three players listed as doubtful for Wednesday night: SG Dion Waiters, PF Josh McRoberts and SF Luke Babbitt.

Without Wall (23.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 10.7 APG, 2.0 SPG) and Porter (13.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG) in the lineup on Monday, the Wizards started PG Brandon Jennings (3.6 PPG, 4.7 APG in 22 games with Washington) and SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (6.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG) in their places. One might expect the brash Jennings to look to take charge given the opportunity, but he only scored two points on six shots in 28 minutes. He didn’t play poorly, though, posting five steals, six assists and zero turnovers. Oubre also shot poorly, scoring 10 points on 2-of-10 shooting in a game-high 37 minutes. SG Bradley Beal (23.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.1 SPG) didn’t disappoint and, impressively, was incredibly efficient even without Wall on the floor. He scored 33 points on 13-of-20 shooting. He ended up playing 33 minutes after being brought back in late in a close game, so he would seem to be a prime candidate to rest on Wednesday. PF Markieff Morris (14.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG) was the team’s second-leading scorer, putting up 20 points and eight rebounds on 9-of-16 shooting. C Marcin Gortat (10.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG) rounded out the starting lineup and put up a line of eight points, eight rebounds and five assists in only 21 minutes. PF Jason Smith (5.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), C Ian Mahinmi (5.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG), SG Tomas Satoransky (2.7 PPG) all played 20+ minutes off the bench, exceeding their season averages, while SG Bojan Bogdanovic (12.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG in 25 games with Washington) played 18. (His average with the Wizards is 23.2 MPG).

Waiters (15.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.3 APG) sprained his ankle on March 17, and the Heat have been without him since. He is aiming to return for the playoffs. His improved play was a huge part of the team’s second-half resurgence, and they are only 7-6 in his recent absence. The player who has increased his scoring output the most in that stretch is PF James Johnson (12.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.1 BPG), who is averaging 16.1 PPG in his last 14 games. He has come out of nowhere this season to be a versatile, productive player, and he stands out as an obvious x-factor if the Heat are able to make the playoffs. The same goes for SG Tyler Johnson (13.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG), who has lived up to the somewhat speculative contract he signed in the offseason. He had 24 points on 7-of-12 shooting against the Cavs. C Hassan Whiteside (16.9 PPG, 14.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG) also stepped up in that one, posting 23 points and 18 rebounds. (Admittedly, Cleveland’s starting center on Monday was the physically overmatched Channing Frye.) If Gortat gets significant minutes on Wednesday, we’ll see a matchup of two of the better centers in the Eastern Conference, with Whiteside arguably being the best. PG Goran Dragic (20.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.2 SPG) is Miami’s leader in scoring and assists, and his role on the perimeter takes on increased importance with Waiters out. So does that of SG Josh Richardson (10.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG), who had 19 against Cleveland and played clutch basketball down the stretch. SG Rodney McGruder (6.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG) has started 64 games for Miami this year, and you still may not have heard of him.