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Hawks face Cavaliers on Friday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 4/7/2017  at  11:26:00 AM
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ATLANTA HAWKS (40-38)

at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (50-27)

Tip-off: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Cleveland -11.5, Total: 215.5

After a much-needed win against the Celtics, the Hawks are heavy underdogs in Cleveland.

The Atlanta Hawks got their biggest win in recent weeks on Thursday night, beating the Celtics 123-116 at home (ATL +1.5) after having lost nine of their previous 11 games. The victory improves their record to 40-38 (36-42 ATS), helping them cling to a half-game lead over the Bucks for the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference standings with four games remaining (three for Milwaukee). They’ll face a quick and difficult turnaround on Friday, though, as they’ll take the quick flight to Cleveland for a 7:30 game with the Cavaliers. The Cavs also took down the Celtics in their last game, blowing out Boston 114-91 at TD Garden (CLE +4) in a game that LeBron James and co. refused to let live up to the hype. All of a sudden, the Cavaliers hold a 1.5-game lead over Boston for the conference’s No. 1 seed at 51-27 (35-40-3 ATS). Since 1996, home favorites with point differentials between +3 and +7 on the season that have scored at least 100 points in two straight games are 47-21 ATS after 42+ games against teams with point differentials between -3 and +3. Over the last five seasons, games involving a road team averaging at least 53 RPG on the season are 53-22 Over against totals of at least 200. Star Atlanta PF Paul Millsap will sit out Friday’s game to rest after only having played two games after returning from a multi-week injury. C Tristan Thompson is doubtful to play for the Cavs.

For Atlanta, not having Millsap (18.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.3 SPG) would seem to seriously hamper their ability to keep up with an elite Cavaliers team on the second night of a back-to-back. That schedule arrangement is largely the reason he won’t be playing, though, as he seeks a full recovery from his injury before the playoffs begin. He was brilliant against Boston, putting up 26 points with 12 rebounds, four assists and two steals in only 29 minutes. So who will take up the scoring load without him? Look first to PG Dennis Schroder (18.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 6.3 APG), who has sneakily taken on a pretty remarkable usage rate for a player of his (middling) caliber in shooting 20.7 FGA in his last seven games. He was effective against Boston, scoring 18 points on 14 shots. Also getting buckets was SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.4 PPG) with 23 points to go with five boards and five assists. (The Hawks moved the ball well on Thursday, as five players had at least four assists.) Rookie SF Taurean Prince (5.5 PPG) played a game-high 41 minutes and scored a career-high 20 points while also grabbing seven rebounds. He is averaging 16.1 MPG on the season, but is averaging 33.0 in his last seven. He should be encouraged to see so much time on the court even with Millsap back in the lineup. C Dwight Howard (13.4 PPG, 12.8 RPG) had only 10 points and eight rebounds against the Celtics, but he ought to feast against a Cleveland team that is without Thompson.

Then again, the Cavs were against Thompson (8.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG) against the Celtics, and still outrebounded them 55-54. (Admittedly, Boston has an undersized frontcourt and Atlanta outrebounded them by an embarrassing 68-47 margin). PF Channing Frye (8.9 PPG, 1.0 SPG) started at the five in that one and, despite his tendency to hang out on the perimeter (40.7 3P% on 4.5 3PA), grabbed eight boards. Plus, PF Kevin Love (19.1 PPG, 11.0 RPG) is one of the league’s best rebounders at the four, despite the fact that he, too, has a role that also emphasizes the three-point shot (38.0 3P% on 6.5 3PA). He had 16 rebounds against Boston. As is typical, the star of the show was James (26.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 8.7 APG, 1.2 SPG) in that one. He silenced the Boston faithful—or most of them, anyway; far too much of the crowd appeared to be on his side—with 36 points, 10 rebounds, six assists and two emphatic blocks. He outscored the Celtics 12-4 to start the second quarter, and his straight-ahead style of dominance can be particularly demoralizing for opponents. Atlanta, like everyone else in the East, doesn’t have anyone who can guard him. PG Kyrie Irving (25.0 PPG, 5.8 APG, 1.2 SPG) was a little quieter with 19 points in 32 minutes. With James ramping up his sense of urgency lately, Irving hasn’t scored 30 points since March 22 (nine games ago), although he regularly puts up between 20 and 25.


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