Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -1, Total: 228.5

Portland looks to further secure their playoff chances with another big home win.

The Houston Rockets had their four-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday night, as they fell behind early and never fully recovered in a 113-106 home loss to the Warriors (GSW +1.5). The loss dropped them to 51-23 on the year (42-32 ATS) and, with only eight games remaining, they are effectively locked into the Western Conference’s No. 3 seed as they are six games back of the Spurs and 5.5 ahead of the Jazz. They’ll play in one of the NBA’s toughest road environments on Thursday night when they head to Portland for a showdown with the surging Trail Blazers. They’re 36-38 after four straight wins (34-40 ATS), with a 122-113 win over Denver on Tuesday (POR -2) giving them a one-game lead and a tiebreaker over the Nuggets for the West’s No. 8 seed. Over the last five seasons, teams outscoring their opponents by at least 3.0 PPG and coming off of two games where they scored at least 215 combined points (HOU) are 24-44 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3. Since 1996, games involving a home team with a losing record that has won at least eight of its last 10 games (POR) are 34-10 Over against the total. Houston PF Ryan Anderson is out indefinitely with an ankle injury, and PF Montrezl Harrell will miss Thursday’s game for the birth of his child.

In almost any other season, Rockets SG James Harden (29.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 11.4 APG, 1.5 SPG) would be a shoo-in for the MVP award. This year, however, features several overqualified candidates, and Harden told reporters before the Warriors game that the fact he has played every game this season should be a determining factor in the race for the award. After the Warriors game, he told reporters that it was tough for him to shoot with a sore wrist. So perhaps Harden could use some rest before the playoffs, but he has made it a bit hard for himself to do so with his public comments. He had 24 points on only 5-of-20 shooting against Golden State, but added 13 assists and 11 rebounds. Houston’s second-best player in that game was C Clint Capela (12.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG), who made 9-of-10 shots en route to 21 points and seven rebounds. The Rockets live on shooting an NBA record 40.2 three-pointers per game, and they died against the Warriors by making only five of 31 attempts. Harden was 1-for-9, SF Trevor Ariza (11.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 SPG) was 1-for-6 and SG Lou Williams (15.1 PPG in 16 games for HOU) was 0-for-5 off the bench. Only SG Eric Gordon (16.4 PPG) was decent in making two of his five attempts from deep. Their rotation is quite shallow without Anderson (13.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG) and Harrell (9.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG), and they only played eight players against Golden State.

The Blazers made what looks like the best trade of the season, flipping starting center Mason Plumlee to the Nuggets for C Jusuf Nurkic (15.0 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.9 BPG in 19 games for POR) and a first round pick. Nurk has been a beast since arriving in the Pacific Northwest, and he destroyed his former team on Tuesday with 33 points on 12-of-15 shooting, 16 rebounds, eight assists and three blocks. He added insult to injury after the game, wishing his ex-teammates a good summer in an on-court interview—savage! He wasn’t even the high-scorer for the game, though, as SG C.J. McCollum (23.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.5 APG) exploded for 39 points, the second most of his career. It was his second 30-point game in three games, as he dropped 32 against Minnesota on Saturday. Tuesday was the rare game where PG Damian Lillard (26.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.8 APG) played the third fiddle, as he finished with 19 points, seven assists, six boards and three steals. It was only his second game in March scoring less than 20 points (he scored 19 in the other one, too), and he had a season-high 49 points two Sundays ago against Miami. SF Maurice Harkless (10.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG) and PF Noah Vonleh (4.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG) join those three in the starting lineup, and they combined for only eight points against the Nuggets. Neither has scored in double-digits in the last five games. SF Al-Farouq Aminu (8.4 PPG, 7.4 RPG), SG Allen Crabbe (10.5 PPG) and SG Evan Turner (9.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.1 APG) get big minutes off the bench.