StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

South Carolina, Gonzaga meet in their first ever Final Fours Saturday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 3/29/2017  at  9:38:00 AM
  Print This Article    

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (26-10)

vs. GONZAGA BULLDOGS (36-1)

NCAA Tournament
Final Four - University of Phoenix Stadium - Glendale, AZ
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:09 pm ET
Line: Gonzaga -6.5, Total: 138

In its first Final Four, Gonzaga is favored over major-conference foe South Carolina on Saturday.

Gonzaga has officially completed its transformation from Cinderella to national powerhouse, as the No. 1 seed Bulldogs will be favored by a considerable margin in their first-ever Final Four game when they take on the No. 7 seed South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday night. To get here, Gonzaga had to beat 16 seed South Dakota State, 9 seed Northwestern, 4 seed West Virginia and 11 seed Xavier (L, L, P, W ATS, respectively). Their toughest challenge came in a 61-58 win over an athletic and aggressive West Virginia team in the Sweet Sixteen, but they looked dominant in their most recent game with an 83-59 triumph over Xavier. They will face a formidable challenge in the Cocks, however, as USC beat No. 10 seed Marquette, 2 seed Duke, 3 seed Baylor and 4 seed Florida (W, W, W, W ATS) en route to what is also their first Final Four appearance. They did it with their signature defensive intensity, but also a surprisingly potent offense that, in its most impressive act, dropped 65 points on Duke in the second half alone. The Gamecocks are 15-17-1 ATS on the year, while Gonzaga has one of the best ATS records in the nation at 23-9-2. Over the last five seasons, favorites (or PICKs) averaging at least 76 PPG coming off an 80-point performance (GONZ) playing against teams averaging between 67 and 74 PPG (SCAR) are 53-24 ATS in contests played on neutral courts 15 or more games into the year. Over the last two seasons, though, South Carolina is 20-8 ATS against teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least 4 PPG on the year.

SEC Player of the Year G Sindarius Thornwell (21.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 SPG) has been the star player for South Carolina all season long, and this tournament has been no exception. He has scored at least 24 points in each of the four games so far, and he is shooting 50% from the field, 42.3% from three-point range and 82% from the free throw line. How impressive is it, then, that his best skills are on the defensive end of the floor? He’ll be looking to hound Gonzaga’s guards on the perimeter and force them to make turnovers. At 6-foot-6, G P.J. Dozier (13.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG) is an inch taller than Thornwell and of a similar build, making him a terror on defense, as well. He’s averaging 15.3 PPG in the tournament but, unlike Thornwell, is not a strong shooter from deep. G Duane Notice (10.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG) is the third starter in the backcourt; his best game this tournament was against Duke, when he scored 17 points and nabbed three steals. The team’s two starting forwards, 6-9 Chris Silva (10.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and 6-10 Maik Kotsar (5.9 PPG, 4.8 RPG), are frankly not known for their skill on the offensive end. They are, however, tough as nails, and won’t be intimidated by Gonzaga’s highly touted bigs. They each scored in double figures against Florida. The Gamecocks have gone as many as 11-deep in their rotation this tournament, with guards Rakym Felder (5.7 PPG) and Justin McKie (4.1 PPG) getting the most minutes. Felder is shooting 43% from three, with the caveat that he has shot barely (or less than) half as many as Thornwell, Dozier and Notice. He did, however, sink two treys against Duke.

Gonzaga will look to score the rock by using plenty of inside-out ball movement, and there’s no shortage of talent on the inside or outside. Their frontcourt is both skilled and very, very large, with the latter attribute best exemplified in the entire nation by 7-foot-1, 300-pound C Przemek Karnowski (12.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.0 BPG). He is averaging 22.9 MPG on the season and is actually down to 21.3 for the tournament, but he is likely the first Bulldog that opposing coaches game plan for. Making that harder is the presence of 7-foot freshman forward Zach Collins (9.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG), the first ever McDonald’s All-American to join Gonzaga out of high school; the fact that he’s not in the starting lineup should speak to the depth of this squad. Starting at forward is Johnathan Williams (10.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG), who had 19 points against Xavier and 13 against West Virginia. The Bulldogs’ best player is G Nigel Williams-Goss (16.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.8 SPG), who, like Thornwell, was named his conference’s player of the year. He has struggled shooting the ball in the tournament, as his 7-of-19 outing against Xavier (for 23 points) represented his best shooting game in the tournament at 36.8%. He has made his presence felt in many ways, though, grabbing at least seven rebounds in each game and at least two steals in each of the last three. The team’s second-leading scorer in the tournament has been G Jordan Matthews (10.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG) at 13.5 PPG. Like Williams-Goss he hasn’t been shooting all that well (36.4% as opposed to 40.9% on the season), which, in retrospect, seems like a good sign: The Bulldogs are winning games even when playing below their ceiling. G Josh Perkins (8.2 PPG, 3.2 APG) rounds out the starting backcourt, while G Silas Melson (7.3 PPG) and F Killian Tillie (4.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG) join Collins as leading minutes-getters off the bench.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: