NCAA Tournament
Midwest Regional Semifinals – Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:09 pm ET
Line: Michigan -1, Total: 147

Expect scoring in bunches from red-hot Michigan and a battle-tested Oregon team.

The No. 7 seed Michigan Wolverines are the hottest team in college basketball right now, as they have won seven straight games and 12 of their last 14, a run that includes a Big Ten Tournament title, two NCAA Tournament wins and a 10-4 record against the spread. They’re 26-11 on the season (17-17 ATS) after their most recent triumph, a 73-69 upset of the No. 2 seed Louisville Cardinals in the Big Dance’s Round of 32 (MICH +3). The Wolverines are a team that no one wants to play right now, but somebody has to—and that team is the Oregon Ducks. After losing 83-80 to a title-contending Arizona team in the Pac-12 Championship Game (ARIZ +1.5), the Ducks earned a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and have picked up a 93-77 win over No. 14 seed Iona (ORE -15) and a hard-fought 75-72 victory over No. 11 seed Rhode Island (URI +4.5), a team more talented than its seed would suggest. Oregon enters the Sweet Sixteen at 31-5 (20-13-1 ATS), and only three teams in the country have more wins. Over the last five seasons, NCAA Tournament games featuring a team that has won at least 15 of its last 20—both Michigan and Oregon have—are 57-26 Under against totals between 140 and 149.5. Michigan has been successful against the spread versus very good teams this season, going 8-1 ATS against teams with a differential of at least +8 at least 15 games into the season. The Ducks, meanwhile, won’t let Michigan’s hot shooting turn the game into a blowout—over the last two seasons, they’re 10-1 ATS against teams making more than 48% of their shots on the year. Oregon will continue to be without F Chris Boucher (11.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.5 BPG), who was one of the country’s best shot-blockers this season.

KenPom rates the Michigan offense as the third best in the nation with an opponent-adjusted efficiency rating of 123.2, and the scariest thing about them is there are four players on the team capable of dropping 20+ points against opponents on any given night. Their leading scorer is G Derrick Walton Jr. (15.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.9 APG, 1.1 SPG). The Second Team All-Big Ten selection only had 10 points (to go with seven rebounds and six assists) against Louisville, but he had scored at least 22 points in each of the three preceding games. The star against the Cardinals was German F Moritz Wagner (12.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG), who showed off a devastating arsenal of scoring moves that included three-pointers, dribble-drives and spiffy low-post footwork in scoring 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting. Walton and Wagner lead the team in three-point shooting at 41.9% and 40.9%, respectively, along with reserve G Duncan Robinson (7.6 PPG, 42.5 3P%). Also known to fire away is F Zak Irvin (12.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.0 APG). After frustrating the Big Blue faithful for much of the season, he is averaging 14.1 PPG on remarkable 48-of-63 shooting in his last eight games. The most versatile player on the team may be 6-foot-10 F D.J. Wilson (11.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG), who has had at least 17 points and three blocks in each of Michigan’s two tournament games so far. G Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (9.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG) starts and shoots 39.3% from three, while F Mark Donnal (4.0 PPG) is the seventh man behind Robinson.

Oregon is one of the most well-rounded teams in the country according to KenPom metrics, ranking 16th (119.0) in the nation in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency rating and 24th in the same defensive category (95.1). While Boucher’s absence certainly worsens the team on the defensive end of the floor, a close loss to Arizona in their conference championship game, their first game without him, proved they can still compete with the best teams in the country. Plus, they still have one elite shot-blocker in F Jordan Bell (10.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 2.1 BPG), who joins Boucher in the nation’s top 40 in blocks per game. He also has logged double-digit rebounds in four straight games. Even the most casual college basketball fans are familiar with Ducks star F Dillon Brooks (16.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG), who already had a handful of memorable March moments under his belt before his junior season began in November. He hasn’t disappointed this season, winning Pac-12 Player of the Year and scoring 18.5 PPG in the team’s first two tournament games. The Ducks’ offensive star against URI, however, was G Tyler Dorsey (14.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG), who shot 9-of-10 from the field and 4-of-5 from three to drop 27 points on the Rams. Both Brooks and Dorsey are shooting over 40% from deep on the year. Guards Payton Pritchard (7.7 PPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG) and Dylan Ennis (10.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG) start in the backcourt—Ennis is a 25-year-old super senior while Pritchard is a true freshman that turned 19 two months ago. G Casey Benson (5.0 PPG, 2.0 APG) and Kavell Bigby-Williams (3.2 PPG) have each played 15+ minutes off the bench in Oregon’s first two tournament games.