Crisler Center – Ann Arbor, MI
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 pm ET
Line: Wisconsin -1.5

#11 Wisconsin looks for a season sweep of Big Ten foe Michigan when the Badgers travel to Ann Arbor on Thursday night.

#11 Wisconsin will be coming off their first loss in their last eight games after being stunned at home on Sunday to Northwestern. The 66-59 defeat (WI -11.5) was the Badgers first home loss this season (13-1). Included in those 13 wins at the Kohl Center is a 68-64 (WI -10.5) win over Thursday’s opponent, Michigan. The Badgers take their 5-2 (3-4 ATS) road record to try and start a new winning streak with a sweep of the Wolverines. Wisconsin is 5-0 (3-2 ATS) on the road against unranked opponents this season (road losses coming at Creighton and at Purdue). Michigan (9-13 ATS) has won four of their last five games, including finishing off a season sweep of Indiana with a 75-63 (UM +2.5) road win on Sunday. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six. Coach John Beilein’s kids are 13-3 (5-8) in the Crisler Center this season. Michigan is 5-2 (3-4 ATS) at home in Big Ten play up to this point. In total trends, the Over is 8-2 in Michigan’s last 10 home games. Not only is Wisconsin going for a sweep of the Wolverines, but also the Badgers have taken the last five contests against Michigan (2-3 ATS), since Feb. 2014. Wisconsin is 8-2 (4-6 ATS) in the last 10 meetings (since Feb. 2011) including 3-1 (1-3) in Ann Arbor. Going back further, the underdog is 14-3 ATS in the past 17 times the Badgers and Wolverines have met. On the injury front, Badgers G Bronson Koenig (13.4 PPG) has been listed as probable with a leg (calf) injury for Wisconsin’s past three games (since Feb. 5). Koenig was limited to two points on 1-for-8 FG (30 minutes) in Sunday’s loss to Northwestern, and is listed again as probable for Thursday night’s tilt.

A healthy Koenig will go a long way to getting Wisconsin back in the win column for Coach Greg Gard. Koenig is just averaging 8.3 PPG in the three games battling with a leg ailment, while shooting just 8-for-29 FG (4-for-15 3PT) in the process. The senior sharpshooting guard was struggling even before the injury, averaging just 8.8 PPG (14-for-55 FG, 7-for-31 3PT) over his last five. Koenig had a team-high 16 points in the Jan. 18 win, including 10 in the last six minutes of the second half to help Wisconsin regain the lead and pull away. The normally-stingy Wisconsin defense (60.4 PPG, 4th in NCAA) did hold Michigan to 64 total points, but let up 43 of those in the second half, 12 more than their (31 second half PPG allowed) average. The Wolverines shot 47.6% 3PT (10-of-21) against the Badgers, an area of weakness in Coach Gard’s solid defense this season (35.6% 3PT, 251st in NCAA). While Wisconsin still plays on the fundamental tenets of patience, and valuing possessions while playing defense without fouling (15.6 PF/game, 6th in NCAA), the Badgers aren’t as efficient on offense in their slow pace as they’ve been in the past. The Badgers do have a very formidable frontcourt and should be able to exploit that advantage over a Wolverines team that struggles mightily on the glass. F Ethan Happ (14.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 60% FG) is having a remarkable sophomore season for the Badgers, ranking amongst the top five in the Big Ten in FG%, RPG, and steals per game (2.0). Frontcourt mate, senior Nigel Hayes (13.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has taken a backseat to Happ as the number one option on offense for the Badgers. In turn, the 6’8” senior has seen his field goal percentage (45%) rise almost 10% from last season. Northwestern was able to get Wisconsin on the ropes with patience, good shot selection (44.8% FG, 41.2% 3PT) and almost turnover-free basketball (six turnovers). Efficiency from beyond the arc and few turnovers (9.4 TO/G, 1st in NCAA) are what Coach Beilein’s Wolverines are all about, so Wisconsin could find themselves in some trouble on Thursday night yet again. Most of all, the Badgers can’t afford just 24 total points from their “big three” of Happ, Hayes and Koenig.

Michigan has gone on a little run and now find themselves squarely in the discussion for a NCAA Tournament berth if success can continue. The Wolverines have done this while their two star players have headed in opposite directions, statistically. Derrick Walton Jr. (14.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.8 APG) and Zak Irvin (12.6 PPG, 4.4 APG) have been the two senior leaders of this team, but Walton Jr. is currently playing as well as anyone in the conference while Irvin has been nowhere to be found on the stat sheet in his last four games. Irvin has only 13 points in his last four (3.3 PPG) while playing 32+ minutes each game. His slump goes beyond explanation, as Irvin is four for his last 31 from the field (2-15 3PT). Walton Jr., however, is white-hot. With five straight 20+ performances Walton Jr’s averages of 23.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 5.0 APG, all while shooting 92% FT (7.8 FTA/g) and 53.8% 3PT, the senior guard is carrying his team on his back. That 6.4 RPG that the 6’1” Walton Jr. is averaging is impressive, but an upsetting trend for Coach Beilein, especially given Wisconsin’s talented and big frontline. F Moritz Wagner (11.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and F D.J. Wilson (10.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.5 BPG) will have to step up to stop Wisconsin from playing volleyball on the offensive glass. Sharpshooting Duncan Robinson (8.5 PPG, 41% 3PT) will be a key weapon against the Badgers below-par 3PT defense. Robinson scored 11 points (3-for-5 3PT) in the loss in the Kohl Center in January and is 11-for-25 3PT, consistently hitting 2+ threes in his last five games. Michigan gave Wisconsin all they could handle in a tough road environment; with home court at their side, the Wolverines will have to hope to be closer to their season average of 15 fouls per game (5th in NCAA) than the 21 fouls they committed in Madison. Wisconsin went to the line 24 times in the January win, while Michigan shot just 11 free throws.